IMF Predictions for US market

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Submitted by housepoor on July 28, 2008 - 6:51pm

Slightly "statistic"y article on US housing prices. It might read a little rough because of the stats, but it comes pretty clear with some of its predictions and assumptions about what "needs" to happen.

It tries to come at the pricing situation via two approaches 1) regress a supply/demand equilibrium and then 2)compare buying to renting. comes to similar conclusions in both instances. What's particularly interesting is its later claim that prices nationwide are moving more in step across regions than ever before, i.e, that we can look at the nation as a whole when trying to understand price movements. Perhaps this claim is less easy to swallow, but interesting nonetheless.

Some good graphs at the end, for the more visually inclined.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2...

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A thorough and exhaustive
Submitted by EconProf on July 28, 2008 - 8:57pm.

A thorough and exhaustive analysis of how we got into this mess.
They conclude we have a lot further to fall. As a nation, housing is about 15% overvalued still. Regional variations might suggest certain bubble areas like San Diego are even more overvalued, even considering how far we've fallen already.
But they also suggest that we are likely to overcorrect and shoot right past "equilibrium" as others here have suggested.
Further, their numbers are not corrected for inflation. In short, our additional fall could be lengthly and severe.
Its interesting, ever since WWII, the US and other developed countries has used the IMF to lecture reckless developing countries that have mismanaged their economies. Now the tables are turned.