San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

well, seller sentiment has still not changed entirely. A lot are still holding out the hope that things will rebound by next summer and then prices will start picking up. I see a lot of new inventory from sellers with considerable equity still priced very high. Of course equity assumption is based on last selling price vs listed price, we all know that many have used their homes like ATM machines and have little or no equity left.

Derby Hill is like that in the CV...I can't explain it and their attitude is straight out of 2003....Especially for the Plan 3's....

pk. Agree. pardee homes thinks the boom is still going and are actually raising prices. The homes are average at best, but they do have decent location working for them.

Tell your friends that next time they should negotiate before putting down a deposit.

Consider it a favor by the builder for not taking your deposit. Greed will carry them for only so far. Maybe they are betting on the foreign investor a little too much.

All's Fair in Love and Real Estate...

TG applies his logic across negotiating genres!

He witholds his... ahem.. deposit...

;-)

"Derby Hill is like that in the CV...I can't explain it and their attitude is straight out of 2003....Especially for the Plan 3's...."

Well, well, well, for the 1st time that I've seen, Pardee has an unsold Plan 3 in inventory at nearly $1.5M. See:
http://www.pardeehomes.com/pricing.php?c...

Three homes sitting in inventory is also the most I've seen since I started watching Derby Hill. Is this the first sign of a crack in their armour?

With regard to their attitude of non-negotiation, you really can't blame them so far, each phase release has been like a stampede over there. They're business people and so far haven't had a need to negotiate anything.

Buy hey, seeing a Plan 3 on their website tells me that demand is slowing for these later phases...there are only so many knife catchers out there, and certainly alot fewer people that can now qualify for a $1.2M loan to buy a standard-fare tract home!

Are your friends really playing hardball if they've already put down a deposit? It sounds more like they are playing "take me for all I'm worth."

Another builder not budging is Centex.

The only builder I have really seen discount is Standard Pacific.

Alex-- Not sure why you're lumping Del Sur and 4S in with Carmel Valley. The latter may be holding (for now), but both of the former have dropped plenty. Easily over $100K in plenty of developments and resales.

You may have something with regard to the developer's staffers, but what else are they going to say? Then again, I've had more than one make it clear that the builder will deal. Not in PardeeLand, of course, at least not yet...

On the deposit front, don't know what to tell you, but folks are rightfully at risk when they cut a check. Do you suppose they thought otherwise when they handed it over?

VO, 2 points for using the word "genre." If I were gay or you were a woman, let's just say you would not be safe.

Paramount, where is centex not playing ball? In our neck of the woods they seem to be, they only play ball once they find themselves without any customers. Stratford and Hemingway in Temec is a complete disaster, national anthem has ended and the ump is about to yell... play ball

I was referring to Stratford and Hemingway - unless they are working me over I don't see them budging much at all.

They won't even talk discounts until you are fully approved to buy and have handed over a check for deposit ($2500).

I actually like Stratford, but the prices need to come way down. I'm not even sure they have come down at all.

The prices will come down. So the only decision is do you want to buy from the developer or from the person that bought from the developer. Of course if you insist on new..new...new then you pay the premium. There will be a slice of time when the developers stop building, have homes to sell, and the prices are low. I'm guessing this window won't be wide, maybe 6 months. Good Luck! Happy shopping

paramount, we are obviously looking at the same stuff. I hate Stratford's location, it shares it's access with the high school student parking lot. Try to get there at 7:30 or 2:45, Hemingway is being smart, they blocked off the road to via Puebla while they are selling them so you can't guage the traffic but the mile of cars backed up on Redhawk and Peppercorn to get to school will be cutting through Hemmingway once they open it. Stratford is sanwiched between the Resvervation and the school, you are part of redhawk and pay the HOA but never see any of the landscaping, you also get to hear the dirtbikes, and are a few hundred feet from the high school football stadium, try talking on the phone inside your house while there is an event there. I talked them down 100k and never brought a checkbook but that was a few months ago when they wanted 450k to start in stratford, now they advertise a lower price to start. Tell me which model you want and I'll go see what they will offer me and then tell you. I could list a million reasons you don't want to be there, nice houses but rotten loaction. Wolf was smart, it doesn't connect to the school, there's no reason to enter the development, you can't get anywhere. Stan Pac has some sweet deals but they had a 6 month gap in starts so the standing they have now is all they will have until april. 340k for 2500 sq in cottonwood and 370 for 2900 sq in laurel, 5 3/8 fixed, 10% down with the pmi paid off by them, all closing costs paid and the first six months payments paid by them, granite, stainless and awesome flooring and a bunch of options included. That was as low as I got them for their standing inventory, I held off and it sold to someone else. Don't even look at the models, just get a brochure, find out the best deal and incentives, then go to the next place and show them, play them into each other. It's getting slower, they are all having cancellations, standing inventory and incentive wars. The recent repos are setting new lows and by spring they will have standing inventory with a 2 as the first number in the price. There a ton of NOD's in the forclosure pipeline in that area.

They won't even talk discounts until you are fully approved to buy and have handed over a check for deposit ($2500).

That's the oddest thing I've ever heard.

I haven't left a deposit for a new home until we've agreed upon the price.

If they DO require you to leave a deposit, I would only do it at the time you make the offer, and then only if you get IN WRITING that the deposit is fully refundable if the offer is not accepted.

temeculaguy: I was looking at the 2750 in Stratford, when I was in there a month ago on the prequal papers she (sales rep) wrote down 417k for the 2750 (March move in date).

I looked at Laurel, but I just could not get over being so close to the casino. Also, I had a concern as to whether or not Standard Pacific was even going to survive to finish the community.

Lastly, I was also thinking that prices in Redwood (Wolf Creek) might come down significantly - so far that's not the case as they are still around 500k (entry model).

At least Stratford is a good distance from the casino, but I know what you are saying about being close to the high school.

The nice thing about Stratford is the low tax rate @ 1.3%, Wolf Creek had a tax rate of 1.7% - that's over $500 each and every month just for tax. Right now I pay $292/month (which is still a lot I think).

Despite all of this I see many people in the builders office signing papers, model home offices packed with people. Where they all come from, I have no idea.

I love reading this board and I have learned in the process, but I don't think the general consensus in any given thread (on the current state of the market) reflects reality.

The housing mania has been subdued, but not extinguished.

People still want new houses, and will make foolish choices to get them.

I only wanted a new house because I am tired of buying older houses and then constantly working on them when things break or wear out. Plus I like the idea of modern wiring - cat5/6, 5.1, etc...

paramount, Redwood just sent out a postcard about one of their standing inventory and it was something like 425k, too big for me 3300 to 4519 sq I'd need a map to find my room. They have agood strategy, the are closing excrow on phases right now at every tract in the area, with nothing new to be finished until april. That way if they need to slash prices they won't lose buyers from one tract to another within the company and nobody can back out. I agree, I fear stan pac won't finish it out but I think there is a major slash coming from them in 08, I think they will just slash and finish out rather than walk away.

temeculaguy - do you see Redwood below 400k in 2008?

For some reason, people are allured to being a "new home owner". I can't explain it. My wife for example, would be willing to pay for a higher price to live in a brand new home versus a resold home. I guess it's the feeling that you can customize to your hearts content, while in reality, for us, it would mean us customizing to be the bare minimum. (white walls, white tiles, no upgrades).

The lesson that I learned early..When we buy a home, buy aresold home from someone who took the time to design the inside...because we suck at it.

I really don't understand the logic to the big hoopla surrounding Pardee Homes Plan 3 Derby Hills. It will be close to $2million with a view, upgrades, and landscaping. That's just insane for a tract home imho. But I guess whatever floats people's boats so to speak.

Derby Hill is like that in the CV...I can't explain it and their attitude is straight out of 2003....Especially for the Plan 3's...."

Well, well, well, for the 1st time that I've seen, Pardee has an unsold Plan 3 in inventory at nearly $1.5M. See:
http://www.pardeehomes.com/pricing.php?com=Derby+Hill&pln=Derby+Hill&lku...

Three homes sitting in inventory is also the most I've seen since I started watching Derby Hill. Is this the first sign of a crack in their armour?

With regard to their attitude of non-negotiation, you really can't blame them so far, each phase release has been like a stampede over there. They're business people and so far haven't had a need to negotiate anything.

Buy hey, seeing a Plan 3 on their website tells me that demand is slowing for these later phases...there are only so many knife catchers out there, and certainly alot fewer people that can now qualify for a $1.2M loan to buy a standard-fare tract home!

Been there, seen that. If you go take a look at that lot for the Plan 3, it's slightly odd. In fact, some of these lots are just weirdly positioned. What's funny is some of the plan 1 pricing is overrunning that plan 3. 

Derby Hill is almost built out and it's one of the worst months to sell homes, new or otherwise, New_Renter. They can wait a few more months to try to close it out high.

You all should meet my neighbors who want 1.175m for a 2700 sq ft plan 3 Saratoga.

paramount-yes. I think a $100 a square or less is just right for 3000+ sq ft houses. They are already pricing their standing inventory close to that price and it's going to get worse. There are three resales listed in the 600's, so those are repos in the making. Until now there hasn't been a lot for sale or repos within the tract but I see it as a tinder box. I think you will see some sub 4's when their next phase in 08 is ready and they have standing inventory.