San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

In nearly 20 years, I never found one up here as you described. I know some effecient ones, some hot ones, some smart ones and some nice ones. You have 14 months according to your plan, figure it out on your own and find a realtor with a knack for negotiation when the time comes. Realtors are situational professionals, you just need them for situations, not a lifetime and you certainly don't need to find one a year before you need them.

Taxes and mello roos are easy, hell I can look them up on my iphone.

http://www.cityoftemecula.org/Temecula/G...

click on "launch the map viewer" then zoom in where you want and you can find the apn and owner (it's a few months behind). Take the APN to the riverside county assessor screen and click on "pay taxes online" then enter the apn to get the itemized bill. The base property tax is the part that is based on value, all the rest are fixed in mello roos style. Some distressed properties have a lot of back fees, run the neigboring houses to get the true rate and run some with assessed values and earlier pruchase prices to get one close to what you will pay, but stay in the tract because it changes.

https://taxpayments.co.riverside.ca.us/S...

(you may have to click the apn finder if you only have the forst 9 digits which are found on mls listings, it's not rocket science, once you figure it out you will be a tax wizard)

When you find out the "add on" taxes in a tract, write it down and you are done with that tract, it will always be that. In 14 months you will know the taxes for every tract that appeals to you, off the top of your head, like me, or maybe I'm just obsessive and need medicine.

Thanks for that handy piece of info. I said 14 months as that is when it is speculating the housing turn around. I want to find someone now in case it makes sense for me to do it sooner. Who knows, Obama may say all of our income taxes will now payoff those subprime morons homes for them and all of a sudden we have amarket turn around faster than expected. :o)

Thanks for that handy piece of info. I said 14 months as that is when it is speculating the housing turn around. I want to find someone now in case it makes sense for me to do it sooner. Who knows, Obama may say all of our income taxes will now payoff those subprime morons homes for them and all of a sudden we have amarket turn around faster than expected. :o)

I think TG should give up his day job and go into real estate.

He has some of the most analytical statements on this site.

thanks urban, I try, but it is just a mere hobby, if you only knew what the caped crusader did for a living you wouldn't say that, I'd do my day job for free if I had to. maybe i'll dabble in ten years or so, after I retire from my current endeavor. The other reason I would probably never take real estate on as a career is that I'm smart enough to know that I don't know. Research and analysis is not sales.

Aecitia, I hope all is well, thanks for the confidence vote, as always.

The reality is that the posters and the viewers here are people all about self empowerment, I've taken more than I have given and I am eternally grateful for all the free advice I've been given. My opinions are a mere reflection of this blog and some data mining. Posters like Rich, Bugs, HLS, Bearvine, esmith, OC, the two sd's, rustico, perry and many, many others made me the monster that I am, so I just pay it forward. In my post detailing my purchase I underestimated the sq ft and overestimated the price for privacy sake, I actually paid just over $80 a square foot in excellent condition with a view, two years ago I almost paid $200 a sqaure and didn't know what a price to rent multiplier ratio was. I don't even remember how i found this site back then. If my opinions help anyone, the thanks goes to my tutors.

The countdown to my next level of self empowerment has started, Installing my own wood floors will have to replace milf hunting and house shopping.

I bet the caped crusader is a male escort for rich women.

But that wouldn't really be a "day" job...

Can anyone tell me the best web site for getting recent and reliable comps? I think I've seen Refin alluded to here a few times.

There are quite a few that I have seen mentioned here:
redfin.com cyberhomes, zillow (although I have seen zillow be way too high and /or not use reliable comps. I also found a new one recently eppraisal. These might give you a rough idea what houses are going for in a specific area. I am sure the realtors and other subject matter experts here like TG have even more recommendations for you. Happy hunting.

Reliable comps dont come easy. Finding closing prices is just the beginning. You need access to finding out and understanding concessions. You need to make adjustments for differences in the properties. You need to adjust for the sellers circumstances (i.e.motivation). Getting to the heart of things this is why I'll have a career in RE for as long as I care to.

Thanks Aecetia!

I agree with sd, the raw data from websites is a mess. One big problem is they all count repos back to the bank as a sale, that isn't a true market indicator and it can be a large chunk of the sales. Either get a realtor or study your area and make frequent visits, I found drinking with realtors and picking up the tab dislodged some info but each sale has a story. Some unusually low ones were inside rigged sales or the place was destroyed inside. redfin runs a few weeks behind but you get into the neighborhood pages by zip code and just pick the tab for recent sales, or have them mapped. Zillow blows, I don't even check it anymore, redfin imports zillow's only good info anyway. Your best bet is to visit every open house by driving the area on weekends, peeking through the windows on all listed vacants, talking to neighbors and talking to realtors, mix it altogether and you get an idea.

Once you get a good feel for the comps it helps you weed out uninformed realtors, it gives you ammunition to question them on it and if you see that they only show the three highest comps they are snowing you, only the three lowest, same deal. The best are those who will say "this one sold for x, but it was thrashed and had mold issues, this one sold for x but it had 100k in backyard landscaping" if you ended up telling them that info and you get the deer in headlights look, lose their business card.

You both make good points, but if you are in a holding pattern and can afford to wait, I think you can at least learn a lot about certain areas by studying them either using some of the above sources, driving the area as suggested and looking at foreclosure.com and not necessarily logging on and paying for the information. I know TG knew his area well enough to be able to spot the distressed property without paying for the service because he has zeroed in on a certain niche market and was very familiar with that. None of us underestimate the value of a trained realtor. I think we might just be leery of the ones that are either untrained or unscrupulous. Being an informed buyer is important even in this market.

I'm a licensed agent. I'll just get on someones MLS system and be done with it. I already know the area cold. Did many transactions in it over the last 10 years.I was just hoping there was something more universally available at this time. (I've been away from the business a couple of years.)But it looks like CAR still has a corner on the business.

There you have it. Spend half your life following every detail about a specific market and you can figure it out yourself. I think TG hit the nail on the head when he said "each sale has a story". All you really need is the time and willingness to devote hundreds of hours to it. If you are, you can handle it. If you aren't get good help.