San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Pardee, is one slick operator. They where one of the only builders in SD to make it through the 90's. They bought the Shaw Ridge (Torrey Hills) land in the 80's and make a gold mine off of it in the 2000's.

Don't expect a plan 3 to go too much down in price. That's going to be their bread and butter for the next few years. It's a fantastic plan. People with money don't mind dropping a few extra dollars for a nice house.

The odd thing is that plan 1's and 2's aren't bad, but they aren't mini castles like plan 3. lol at the electric bill for plan 3 though. The yahoo group says it's through the roof.

What yahoo group?? Is there a yahoo group for people interested in derby hill???

thanks for the info....maybe they should build Plan3's only!

The odd thing is that plan 1's and 2's aren't bad, but they aren't mini castles like plan 3. lol at the electric bill for plan 3 though. The yahoo group says it's through the roof.

I was brought up with the mindset of buying the biggest house you can afford. However, my family has gotten away from that thinking in recent years in favor of buying what is practical.

As for the energy bills, I guess the owners of that plan 3 can do what Queen Elizabeth purportedly does in her castle: instead of cranking up the heat, when it gets chilly she tells people to grab a sweater.

So both my wife and I visit PD regularly. There's at least 1 additional friend that is waiting for the last phase. I think what attracted us to DH and to my friend's family is basically it's one of the last developments in what arguably is a nice part of CV. With all due respect to people that live along 56, etc, those areas are sort of out there from what we normally like to be (beach, malls, close to work, etc).

I guess what makes me and some friends like plan 3 is the loft option in the attic and the attraction of a brand new home to "customize". And PD did a great job marketing that. The thing that I don't like about DH though is that

1) a lot of the lot sizes are really odd shaped.

2) No real 3 car garage. Tandem sucks.

3) For such an ubber size home on plan 3, it sort of stinks to have such a small 1-door entry.

4) The price (for us) is ridiculous.

Ok, admittently, it's mainly #4 that's the problem for us. My wife hates plan 3, prefers plan 2, can't stand plan 1. I don't like plan 2 and prefer 3, don't really think plan 1 would be much of an upgrade for us. On top of that, very few units are in compliance with our "fong shui" needs. Also, obviously for us to motivate moving at this point, would mean we would need to sell our existing home giving up a view that my wife likes that most likely we won't have if we moved to DH (most homes have backyard views of neighbors), and also sinking more money into a debt that won't be recovered for a long while. So obviously, unless there will be a firesale (which I highly doubt), it's simply not going to be on our radar.

Make no mistake, the existing prices for plan 3 are out of price range. though I suppose we could stretch to live there, it's simply beyond our level of comfort, especially in this economy. It's also pretty pointless for us to argue whether home prices are going to "hold value" in Pardee communities. If you agree that most likely you're not going to see appreciation in the next 5 years, and if you're like most people that are going to take a mortgage out, it's already a liability.

It will be interesting to see what kind of financing some buyers in such new communities did. I suspect there might be a few(not a lot) that are on sketchy loans.

If you're seriously considering plan3, why not consider something comparable like Lexington? At least you won't be paying an annoyingly higher HOA from the new communities. 

----- Sour grapes for everyone!

I think late last year we saw a plan 3 in Derby Hills. Tell me if I am right. We were going to look at homes in an area called Meadows Del Mar (Grand Del Mar), which is off of Carmel Creek Road (or Carmel Country Road, I get them mixed up), just south of the 56 and then to the East up a long hill past the Grand Del Mar Resort.

We were early so decided to kill time and go all the way up the hill up Carmel Creek to look around. We went past Lexington homes and deep into the area and then took a right and drove some more and found a group of model homes. They were in this price range you mentioned. The one we liked the best was around 4,000sf + and was like 3 stories. While it felt small, and the lot tiny, I recall liking a few things about it. It had a courtyard in the middle of the house that was very nice and egress and ingress from the house was well thought out. It had seperate stairs, if I recall correctly, from the courtyard going to the second floor. It had a fully built out attic set up as a kids room. Is this the plan you folks are talking about? If so, I agree that it was a very well thought out plan and very nice use of space.

If the cost of a nice one is $1.8M, however, you can get a very nice 5,000sf or larger home on an acre for just a little more than that ($2M or just a bit more) in places like Fairbanks Highlands and Mendiola, which are essentially CV, or something in the mid 3,000sf range in RSF. That suggests that these DH homes, if that is what I saw, are still overpriced. If the home I saw was DH, I also noticed that you got no view and your house was on top of your neighbor's more than those other parts of CV I mentioned.

Has anyone heard what the pricing is for the latest Derby Hill release? A friend thought they might all be canyon lots and really high ($1.5M+ without any upgrades).

There are two resales still on the market in Derby Hill: a FSBO Plan 1B for $1.299M (purchase price $1.148) and a Plan 2A for $1.59-1.69 (purchase price $1.84).

From everything I've heard, there still seems to be high demand for all models in Derby Hill. Pardee's prices don't seem to be softening.

Why, why, why? Tract homes in a soon to be quite crowded neighborhood, built as an afterthought to the burgeoning sorrento mesa business crowd.

Overcrowded schools, strip malls, multi family homes, possibly low income housing and a road, a gigantic road to finally connect Mira Mesa to CC Highlands.

The veneer is off and the scratches are starting to look ugly.

Derby Hill already sold out it's latest release last Saturday. All were $1.5M+.

Is that road from mira mesa to CC highlands actually going to happen?? Where do I find more info on this.....

That would be one heck of a road for sure, it would have to be built right through the canyone which I thought was protected.

My understanding is that the long-term plan is to connect Carmel Valley road at the 56 to Camino Santa Fe in Mira Mesa through the Del Mar Mesa neighborhood. You can find that info in the San Diego master plan.

Upstream from there, the Camino del Sur / Camino Ruiz connection was officially abandoned in 2004: they built a park at the end of Camino Ruiz on the MM side. It looks like a lot of people in Park Village were not too happy about a direct connection with the older parts of Mira Mesa. However, the anti-development crowd excuse is always the preservation of the canyon (which by the way I agree is a great outdoor entertainment asset).

Rene

Derby Hill already sold out it's latest release last Saturday. All were $1.5M+.

Let's see how many back out after this 1000+ drop in the stock market and possibly a tech stock flogging after qualcomm announces earnings today....

Not taking any chances in earnings today. I'm buying enough short term puts to hedge any potential huge drop this afternoon. 

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----- Sour grapes for everyone!

Qualcomm's earnings will be just fine. Economy may be crap but people still use their cell phones.

For technician out there. Wouldn't the 5 year chart for Qualcomm suggest a head and shoulders pattern with significant pressure to regress back to the 16 to 17 dollar range.

Apparently, the numbers were fine, though my  insurance is now  worthless. lol. It could be worse.

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----- Sour grapes for everyone!

Pardee has another Derby Hill release 2/23.

The 2/23 Derby Hill release only had two homes left as of Sunday Morning. You may "hate" Derby Hill but it seems like there are plenty of buyers out there with a contrary opinion!

ILCV,

You know, you're getting awefully defensive about Pardee community, aren't you? I was half joking yesterday. But no offense, you seem to be in a state of denial in thinking that this particular complex is the hottest selling, "holding value/ or will hold value" versus the rest of CV...etc. Are you sure you don't work for Pardee, or don't live in this community???? Don't get me wrong, I live in CV myself and it's a nice community in general. But let's put things in perspective..If you like everyone else bought into DH over the past 2 years and you didn't you pay all cash, or near all cash, you're already or going to be very soon underwater, just by the interest payments alone.... because prices are definitely NOT rising. So, I really don't get what's the big deal in thinking prices are going to move up $20-30 or even $50k. It doesn't matter, most people who are on jumbo loans who bought recently past 2-3 years are already underwater. And some of those who bought in 2004 are getting close to being underwater. You think DH has appreciated by 20+% since the time you bought?

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----- Sour grapes for everyone!

I never said anything about Derby Hill going up. I just said that it was still selling strong and holding its value. You must be confusing me with someone else.

I never said anything about Derby Hill going up. I just said that it was still selling strong and holding its value. You must be confusing me with someone else.

I never said anything about Derby Hill going up. I just said that it was still selling strong and holding its value. You must be confusing me with someone else.