San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

The real bottom of the market isn't hours, days, weeks or months away. It is YEARS.

The people that are "tired of waiting" just do not understand market cycles, which will be part of the problem of getting to a true bottom. They will be too anxious, afraid of missing out.

Because $500K is less than $600K, some people think it's a bargain and buy in. IF they were patient, it might have gotten to $300K.

Dot com stocks didn't fall overnight $300 became $260 then $225 some eventually became $1 or less. Pity those that buy that close to the top.

It's all supply and demand OR fear and greed.
Those are the forces that defy explanation.

A very high % of SD county has equity and a decent mortgage.
Prices go up or down, most people aren't selling or moving.

The supply will be limited to what it will be.
If homes drop 50%, many people will still not be moving and will still have equity in their homes.

Those that are tired of waiting don't have an entitlement to buy a house at what they can afford. What is it exactly that they are waiting for ???

Good prices in TX for anyone considering leaving.
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Comment by Bye FL
2007-09-17 15:30:49
I am getting sick and tired of people whining about Texas being unaffordable. 90% of Texas is cheap! Please avoid that 10% with wishing prices, let those FB’s and speculators rot! I am going to show you a few houses below that anyone can afford. If they are not “good” enough for you, you have no business being in Texas, go relocate to NW Pennsylvania, prices are even *cheaper* there. Rent is generally *not* a good deal in Texas because there’s plenty of houses that cost *less* than rent. 90% of Texas did *not* see much of a bubble!

http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingd...

Nice big house in perfect condition in good, established neighborhood in Dallas for $85k.

http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingd...

Large 3 bedroom house in established neighboorhood for $130k.

http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingd...

$129,900
5 Bed, 3 Bath
2,680 Sq. Ft.
Huge house at under $50/foot!

http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingd...

Very nice house for $158k(you can get one like that for a few thousand cheaper, actually)

I hope this clears up any misconception about Texas being unaffordable. Texas is *not* like California or south Florida where almost nothing is affordable! People are running away from those locating and running to Texas where they can get a very nice house to live in at sane prices. I am tempted to relocate to Texas but big city life isn’t for me and NW Pennsylvania costs half as much. Texas would be a great bet for my parents, wish they had sold in south FL, they will lose their equity and south FL will become cheap enough that they might not want to bother selling if they don’t sell soon. Prices here will fall big time.
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Spend a couple of weeks in Texas and you'll understand why it's so "cheap" there.

lol. Feel free to stay in California. We love being in Texas after leaving CA in March. Lots to recommend, cost of living is high among them.

It is not like San Diego; but buying a nice house with a year's salary and living debt free seems very interesting concept. 24 million people live there. Can't be that bad!

Whatever. A nice house in hell is no bargain at all.

Texans are some of the most gregarious people on earth. And the state has an incredible history.

Whats so bad about Texas?

I was in Dallas in May and was fine place to me. People are way friendlier than in San Diego. Much cheaper to live and good food. We spend most time indoors unless you are filthy rich and can be at the beach allday or live in Rancho Santa Fe. Or are a pro surfer.

Wickedheart, Texas is a very big state. Why do you think none of it is a desirable place to live? I visited Austin in June and yes, it was very hot, but it was also very nice in many other ways. I am sure there is some variety there. After all, the people who live there don't all come out of a TV parody.

Patient renter in OC

My favorite quote about Texas was from the Civil War General Philip Sheridan who said: " If I owned both Hell and Texas I'd rent out Texas and live in Hell!"

I actually don't have anything against Texas, but since there's no big Navy hospital there, I won't be moving there anytime soon. I just thought that quote was funny considering some of the posts in this thread..

Let em' go .. it will help traffic stay reasonable.

"Do you guys know of anyone like this?"

Yes, me.

Those Texas prices.... sigh.

I might be persuaded to move to Austin. If I didn't have the friends I have here in SD I would have already moved out of state 4 or 5 years ago.

>chirp<

I moved out of San Diego this summer after living there for 3yrs. 110k household income. No debt. We liked San Diego but didn't "love" it.

Recently bought a home for 210k in Kansas City. 4BR, 2.5Bath, 2600sqft with back/front yards. Mortgage payment is $1070/mo. We paid $1400/mo for an apartment in Carlsbad. Now that we have a different perspective on San Diego (looking back), we are very happy with the decision.

Where I work we've lost about 10% of our engineers to less expensive states. I work at a small defense contractor and we cannot find qualified engineers. They are gone, moved away. All that seems to be left are new grads or rejects. 2 of our best left last year. One went to OK and the other went to TX. I also had a self employed friend move to KS. The price of real estate/cost of living is the main reason people are moving. You can spout off about the weather all you want, but when people making 150k a year cannot afford a decent house or can't afford to take vacations there is a problem. At this rate CA will be nothing but illegals and low income tourist type jobs soon. It will be hard to justify those 800k homes on a Sea World salary.

I wonder why the Bushes live in Texas. They could afford to live anywhere. Dick Cheney lives in Texas only for political purposes but his real home is in Jackson, Wyoming, which is a very nice place full of rich people.

The Clintons knew better not to return to Arkansas.

Millionaires like to retire in Palm Springs. The dry heat must be good for arthritis.

The people that are "tired of waiting" just do not understand market cycles, which will be part of the problem of getting to a true bottom. They will be too anxious, afraid of missing out.

I disagree - we left precisely because we DO understand market cycles.  I moved five years ago - obviously well before the last push, and some could say we missed a money making opportunity, but the prices then were already too high for us.  In this short five years, we have instead lived well within our means, lived extremely well (we travel - we can sign up the kids for anything they are interested in with the best private instructors - we ski  - we go to San Diego for the entire summer, EVERY summer, etc.) 

So now we sit and watch and wait to buy a summer condo out there when the prices fall.  We'll never leave upstate NY.  The schools, the scenery, even the snow are beautiful.  And these words come from a girls who grew up in Solana Beach/Del Mar. 

When my bones get old & cold, we'll retire in No.County.

Lots of people are leaving. 

I understand market cycles too. I sold out of California in 2004 (a year early, sue me). :)

I bought in Austin and have seen nice steady appreciation ever since. Austin is a nice place, reminds me of San Diego in the late 70's. Sorta small and laid back with a nice vibe and not overcrowded yet.

That said, it's a little small town for us in the long run, and the market is giving some warning signs here too (increased inventory and DOM - fewer sales - prices steady so far), so we are going to sell and downsize to North Dallas where there is more going on.

I love San Diego, but at the current prices, Dallas is a better option for us. I can visit California whenever I like. And if prices fall far enough, the money we save in downsizing can go towards a house in San Diego at the bottom of the market.

Lostkitty, if you buy a summer condo what will you do with it during the winter? I have a condo and am considering buying a house out East (maybe Georgia) but keeping the condo here. I can't imagine being able to rent it only for the winter though, it would be a major inconvenience to the renter and myself moving in/out every year but at the same time it would be a waste to let it sit empty.

Any thoughts on Georgia? I'm thinking somewhere between Macon and the Atlantic.

I love it here, can't stand snow.. so I'm staying.

The point of the thread was to point out that I know a few white collar professionals that are leaving, and was wondering if other people do to.

One thing I see in this thread is people that say they love where they live, and how it's a great decision, but later on in the paragraph they say they will return to San Diego.

I like San Diego - nice weather, cheaper housing compared to LA/Bay Area, mid-sized metro area

On the flip side the job base is limited, incomes are low compared to cost of living

The only reason I'm still here is because I'm entrenched. I've kept busy and made many social and business contacts here. It has nothing to do with SD but my own busy lifestyle. I've been here for 16 years now and am comfortable with it.

I would definitely not call SD "great". It's got location, weather, and a bunch of citizens who like to take it in the A by believing the media and local govt. mass hype/deception about how great it is. It's no wonder we have one of the biggest bubble markets. It's also this I-like-to-take-it-in-the-A attitude of SD people that makes it so great to do business here. Lots of ripe, rampant consumers who will buy whatever you want to sell them.

I've got one foot out the door after 6 years here. Thinking about Charlotte, NC area but still not sure if I would buy there right now as they have tons of new home inventory that will have to be reduced in this current slowdown.

I don't get the 'buy or fly' mentality.

If you like SD and have a good, stable job, why not just rent and bankroll the savings? You will be in a prime position to buy when the market bottoms.

"You can spout off about the weather all you want, but when people making 150k a year cannot afford a decent house or can't afford to take vacations there is a problem"

I hear stuff like this on these blogs all the time. Why can't a person making 150k a year afford a decent house? Presumably they didn't start making that yesterday? So let's say they have 5-10 years making that kind of money. A single person could save 75k per year easily and a small family could save 50K or more. I can sympathize if there are alimony issues and issues like that but otherwise, where does the money go? Yes, cry me a river. Yes I know houses in San Diego are too expensive but to say I won't buy one is different than to say I can't. And that affordabilty issue really only got way out of whack from 2004 and beyond...so up until then buying was even less demanding on income. Plenty of people and families making less than 100k a year bought houses in this century in San Diego and will be fine.

LostKitty,
Don't think that you actually READ what I wrote.

You aren't IN SAN DIEGO and TIRED OF WAITING for prices to drop, nor do you seem anxious to buy too soon.

Not sure exactly what it is that you disagree with.

Waterboy wrote: "I've got one foot out the door after 6 years here. Thinking about Charlotte, NC area"

I left SD a couple of years ago and now live 90 miles south/southwest
of Charlotte in the Greenville, SC area. Take a look at the Greenville/Spartanburg area before you make a hard decision. The weather here is a little better than Charlotte because we're very close to the mountains. It does get hot during July & August but the majority of the year offers very pleasant weather. I don't work anymore but there is a healthy, vibrant economy. Greenville/Spartanburg and Charlotte did not have the ridiculous run-up in house prices that SD and the other bubble markets had so prices are pretty stable. You can buy an exceptionally nice home here for $225k-up and not have a neighbor living 10 feet away.

Ex-SD....Thanks for the advice.

One other factor you may want to consider to improve your overall Quality of Life is Traffic Congestion. See http://mobility.tamu.edu/ums/congestion_...

I grew up here and will probably die here. The people in my office who are talking about "moving home" are late 20s-early 30s types who came here after college but are now marrying and planning to start families.

I have to ask Mint why you would trade Austin for North Dallas (unless its job related).

Austin may be smaller than Dallas but it has a LOT more charm. Dallas and Houston are hell (worked in the former and grew up in the latter)

Lakes: Lake Travis > anything in Dallas
Hills: Hill Country in Austin > flatlands of Dallas
Mountain Biking: Austin
Road Biking: Austin (why Lance moved down)
Culture: lot more activities go through UT than through SMU, though Dallas has a good symphony

Pancakes: Kerbey Lane/Magnolia Cafe slight edge over Cafe Brazil

BBQ: Salt Lick, Stubb's > Dallas

Sushi: Dallas > Austin

More diversity: Austin > Dallas

Pretentiousness: Dallas >>>> Austin

Anyway, my friends in Austin and San Antonio are jealous when I bike around San Diego in the mornings and hit LaJolla for a swim in the afternoons (just on the weekends mind you--it was worth giving up my 2500+ ft home in Austin just to avoid the mosquitos and the heat).