San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

After cashing in my UYG too early (at 1.78, 1.85 and finally 2.00) I decided to put some of the gambling money back on SKF earlier today.

I expect the 'we are making money once we excluded the losses' verbiage to lose its power once the actual earnings for the financials are released next month.

Of course, when I see black for five consecutive rolls I expect red to show up. For some reason it happens only 50% of the time.

Looks to me like we are tracking the 1929-32 crash now. Maybe you can base your sucker's rally guesses on that.

Taken from here.

Let us know which tickers you short.

It will go higher...until obama speaks again...Oh wait, he just did....

Damn you FLU!!!!

You gotta tell OB to shut his piehole up!!

Nostra I am doing exactly EXACTLY what you said about tracking the 29 crash. It is happening alot faster right?

October 9th 2007 Dow was at 14164.
March 9 2009 Dow was at 6457

So essentially we have had about a 55% decline in a matter of 17 months.

*********

August 26 1928 Dow was at 380.
Dec 1930 Dow hit around the 170 mark which is the equivalent of the 55% decline. The timeframes are pretty darn close are they not?

Wow Nostra and SD-R, are you saying that we should get out of stocks ASAP?

History is a wonderful teacher, and people ignore it at their peril. Thanks for sharing the graph.

In addition to crash periods depicted (Great Depression, 1973 oil shock, dot-com), would you consider a period such as 1965-1982?

The Dow fluctuated around 1000 all those 17 years. Only in 1982 we passed that level for good. Could we have another 15-20 years where the Dow dances up and down the 6500 or 7000 mark without making much progress?

We could buy dividend-paying stocks every time the market dips (or appears to dip). History also shows that dividends dropped far less than stock prices during the Great Depression. Of course, there's no guarantee that dividends won't be decimated this time around (witness GE dividend cut from $1.24 to $0.40 in Feb 2009).

Diego "Threadkiller" Mamani

^You can add another DOW component, Alcoa, to the list. 82% dividend reduction.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Alcoa-unve...

Diego here is how to get rich in the stock market, do exactly the opposite of what I do!

Honestly I do not have any strong insights to the market but I have pretty much jumped out of the market 100 percent with regards to long term investing.I did start to simply perform some short term purchases of index based etfs depending on where I think the market will go in the short term. I gotta tell you, if you look at the behavior of the market during the 1929 crash which really saw a peak in 1928 the similarities are interesting. So I just kind of do these nimble in and out moves with tight stops. I am a wuss though. I went positive the day the dow bottomed out and did great. However I only enjoyed about 25 percent of this rally because I had to tight of a stop and last week the market opened with a dip down and I got stopped out because of 4 freeking cents on SSO. What can you do right? So you figure if the s and p was down at 680 or was it 660 on the low 2 weeks ago, then how high should it go before I go in negative? If you look at the charts through depreciation cycles it seems like getting a 20 percent rally in a secular cycle screams entry point for the downside. So today the sp his 770 but obama flapped his gums and the market soured.

Anyways don't listen to me because I am an idiot. I enjoy hoping the points of view other investors on the site bring up.

Hah hah... You sound like me...

Actually, I've started trying a different strategy. I go through the usual logic and reasoning I have with why I should do a specific speculative investment. I do my rationale and reasoning that my enginerd and geekdom bestows on me. Then after I muster up enough logic to make the speculative investment, at the last minute I do a 180degree reversal of what all my logic/reasoning tells me to do. Seems to work better for me these days..:)

Case in point Citibank.... I was like holy cow, this is going to $0, it's going to get nationalized, now stay the hell away from it. and just when I've convinced myself that citibank is going under, do the last minute reversal and buy a few shares at $1.01 thinking this is a completely bad idea. Well, I've doubled what I put in. BTW, it wasn't much. $1000. I figured, better than going to vegas :) lol.....(I won't tell you about my other stock picks though heh heh)....

Ahh I see FLU that you are employing the opposite approach used by george costanza! Hey that got him his job with the yankees so it worked for him!

When the 50 (dma) gets close to the 200 (dma) its a pretty safe bet to re-short. Other than that you're going to have to get more specific.

I also like SRS at 52.

Josh

SD-R nd FLU, very funny comments!

I used logic and reasoning a year ago... concluded that the dollar policies and coming bailouts were going to reduce the value of the dollar, and decided to put 10% of my net worth in VWIGX (Vanguard Intl Growth fund, highly diversified, mostly European companies) and another 6% in FXE (Euro EFT). I lost big time!

10 days ago I used my logic again (not having learned from George Constanza) and bought GE at $7, PVR, and US Bank Preferred G, all dividend-paying stocks, and I made a killing! But I only put in 2% of my net worth...

You only make a killing when and if you sell...

Revised and corrected version: "I made a killing on paper!" The main reason I bought those three were for the dividend income. The short term appreciation is nice, but I realize it may evaporate as soon as this sucker rally ends.

On the other hand... VWGIX and FXE look like bargains now. The Euro is cheap, and European companies are at bargain prices because of irrational panic selling :-)

Shoulda shorted Alcoa, mayer's pick.

Just FYI the four bad bears graph has been updated today. It will be cool to see in a couple weeks whether we're still tracking 1929.

SDR

check my blog i called this low within 2 days 2 weeks in advance

in spite of all the experts here I am the only one who has proved he makes money trading

Well, given today's run-up it's probably time to buy SRS at the current levels around $50. I also like SKF at below $92 for a trade. All these short ETF's are only good for short-term trades and should not be held for too long.

Chris I have been watching your posts. You were pretty darn close to pegging the bottom. Now the next question is where to go. I am not surprised about the activity today although the days activity did push the market beyond what I felt would be resistance for the indices. So yes I have to say I have been spying on your site and you have been nailed it this year so far.