San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Um, yeah, and those are probably some of the same small companies that in good times try to convince people to take a 30-50% pay cut in return for as much "pre-ipo toilet paper stock certificates"..... and wonder why it's so difficult to hire good talent or why their development/projects suck egg. I have not seen a company succeed in the long run primarily driven by cost cutting and finding the cheapest "labor" of development. Doing so infers they aren't really building anything that cannot be easily done by someone else, and hence really lack a barrier to entry and competition. If that isn't a warning sign of how you're valued even before you show up for work, guess what happens when you do show up for work.

FAIL..... Move on...

Most large employers have pay scales..It's pretty difficult to come under -30% what your pay scale should be, unless one willingly took a lower position. which very well maybe be what one needs to do in certain situations.

You probably don't want to hear this either but...Some employers keep job positions open for months, to keep open a headcount that has been allocated to them. They might not need to fill it right away. They have it open for various reasons. A lot of development dollars work like the government's budget...in that you must spend all of it, otherwise if you don't, your budget shrinks next year...(Sound familiar?). That 's why often times you have companies that will have a position open for months try to find the "most qualified candidate", and hastily fill it torward the end of the quarter/fiscal year. They went through lauddy da da, and finally toward the end, they needed to fill the position immediately or lose their headcount. So they picked someone close to the end of the interviewing. So... use this to your advantage.

Also, some companies keep positions open on the website even though they have a hiring freeze. It's a image thing. Some even go through the song and dance of interviewing people (locally that requires no cost), only to not hire.

Hiring these days has a lot more to do with who you know and who knows you that what you know. The latter is going to take your through the HR process, and it's randomness,etc. If you know people that worked with you in the past, usually referrals expedite the thing much more quickly. Hence, the other rule, don't burn your bridges.

I have a friend with top notch internet software development skills who was laid off between Thanksgiving and Christmas. He's one of those guys who has never been without work for more than a week since college. I think his job hunt will start in earnest next week.

If you remind me in about 2 weeks I'll ask him how the job market really is at this moment in time.

If at all possible I would get out of IT permanently - I know that's easier said than done but in the long run it's probably the smart move.

Between outsourcing, H1B's, an excess of IT workers and recruiters, the IT industry has become one of America's worst fields to be in.

If 50% of advertised jobs on Dice are real I would be shocked - it's probably much lower.

IT is a perfect example of an industry that needs to be Unionized.

If at all possible I would get out of IT permanently - I know that's easier said than done but in the long run it's probably the smart move.

What would you recommend as a new career for those folks?

Change management or Training for ORACLE/SAP/other large ERP implementations. Lots of work there..

I work for a smaller development company and we're actively trying to hire.

I think it is important to separate general "IT" from "Software Development". A non technology company views IT developers as a cost center, a software company views developers as a profit center and treats them as such.

Good developers (that are in the field because they view it as an art and a creative endeavor) will not have a problem finding work, even in this market. Developers that are in it to collect a pay check will struggle when faced with outsourced labor that will do it with the same lack of passion but cheaper.

There is a very interesting thread on Joel on Software where developers are discussing the current job market and desire to leave the industry. Very relevant to this thread: http://discuss.joelonsoftware.com/defaul...

What do I recommend for alternate careers? That depends on the person, but there are many options from Trucking to the Medical Profession to name but two.

Also, the notion that if your "good" and holistic you'll have no problems getting a job is an over simplification and a load of s.

For one thing, IT (software or not) has a lot of age discrimination - once your over 40 finding a job becomes much more difficult (particularly in IT).

Also, I no longer consider IT a "career" like perhaps a teacher where in general years of service is actually appreciated.

IT SUCKS!!!

In my opinion you can apply some of the same thoughts to jobs as this site does to housing. The pay rate for a job is what someone is willing to pay you to do it. Job skills and requirements vary. Some IT tasks are easier than others, so the pay might be different. The job someone had/had will be worth more or less depending on current supply and demand, not what they made in previous years.

I guess to each their own, but I can't imagine me thinking that trucking or medical would be a better career choice than IT.

The most important thing is to pick a career that you enjoy. If you enjoy it, chances are you'll do a better job. And if you do a better job, you're likely to be more successful.

yup.

bingo. Again, it surprises me that the two get mixed up. And a lot of it has to do with were the money is coming from. One is viewed a "cost cutting". One is viewed as product development, profit driven. Don't get caught on the wrong side of the fence. BTW: grubblings at HP tell me while Mr. Hurd is doing a great job at making shareholders happy, he is doing a great job turning the company into a IT-like job. Run far far far away.

Work for a company or start one that's business is software products or services. Not some IT position at say some insurance company doing some back office crap. World of difference.

The software field is quite unique in the fact that once you have acquired the necessary skills, absolutely ZERO capital is needed to create a profitable business. If you are over 40 and in the software industry (and GOOD) then you should absolutely have the skills and drive to find a niche where you can compete. As a mISV or even independent contractor. However, if you are 40 and the extent of your knowledge is restarting the database when the finance guys call yelling at you - well then good luck. Pick up a book and start learning how to shape your own future building upon the basic tech skills you already have.

I started writing my own commercial software when I was 16...with no investment of my (or my parents) cash. If I could create something that people wanted to pay for (on a monthly basis at that - recurring revenue!) at 16, don't cry about age discrimination and not being able to find an IT job. THAT is bs.

There seems to be this growing subset of IT professionals that are whining about age discrimination, outsourcing and unfairness in the industry. Just based on personal knowledge, the folks that are complaining are the ones that "got into computers for the money". So, as I said before - "good" developers that have a passion for the things they build will always be in demand. You can't outsource passion and pride in one's work.

I ain't no IT expert by a long shot. But my general feeling for the last several years has been: If your job can be outsourced, eventually it will be.

Mechanics and house cleaning folks - just as examples - don't have to worry because obviously they have to be "on site" to do their jobs. Likewise, jobs that require direct relationships won't go anywhere either - for example, face-to-face sales.

The dichotomy in finance is easily seen at an investment bank. Grunt work at the associate level and below will largely be outsourced at some point (a monkey could do most of the modeling and graphics work for pitch books). But the partners who deal directly with the clients - their jobs aren't going anywhere in the generic sense. Likewise, the straightforward PhD-level derivatives number crunching will get outsourced, but the "creative" guys at the top will always be on site. If the job involves a lot of creativity, direct client contact, and/or security issues, it isn't going anywhere. But if it doesn't - look out.

As an unlikely example, my CPA is starting to outsource certain tax accounting tasks to a firm in India. Now, he hasn't let anyone go in order to do this but he plans on outsourcing more and more as the firm grows instead of hiring more folks directly.

I'd imagine IT will be the same way. The generic engineering-type stuff will continue to be outsourced at an increasing pace. I have a friend that used to manage a team of folks in Eastern Europe for his firm. He told me that one day he woke up and realized that some of these guys were better than he was and that he needed to find something else to do because eventually he wasn't going to be able to compete, which is exactly what he did. But the really creative and relationship-driven jobs will stay here.

If you sit down and ask yourself, "Can someone overseas do my job?" and the answer is yes, then eventually it's either going to happen or the fact that it could happen is one day going to dramatically affect your pay. At least that's what I suspect. But again, I ain't no IT perfeshnul.

Outsourcing has been around for a decade and we still have jobs.

On one hand, the pool of IT professionals in this country is shrinking. Computer science is extremely unpopular among young Americans - IIRC the percentage of computer science degrees is something like 2% among males and 0.2% among female. American software companies can't bring enough H1B's to satisfy demand.

There is a certain wage gap that is necessary to keep outsourcing profitable. Growth in emerging markets pushes on this wage gap and makes companies in developed countries less likely to outsource. Wages in India, China, and Eastern Europe are growing 10-15%/year. In 2000 you could hire a bunch of decent programmers in Moscow for $1000/month and they'd be happy to work for you. Today you offer that salary and they will laugh at you.

Please join me in the real world!

"Do what you enjoy and it will all work out" - another load of s. If life were only that easy.

You do what pays the bills, and hopefully it happens to be something you enjoy. For most people, that's the way things work.

Also, eclipxe, I wish I lived in your ideal world. IT is a moving target and skill requirements change and often rapidly - it often comes down to more than "GOOD" and "PRIDE" and all of that other BS your spouting - those subjective ideals alone will not guarantee that anyone is in demand.

As far as age discrimination is concerned, your comments have no value IMO as I suspect you don't have a clue or have never been a victim of age discrimnation.

When you are 48 and get laid off from an IT job where you were making 6 figures then you might get the idea. Then maybe you won't be so arrogant.

I would urge anyone that works in a mid to large sized company to read "Corporate Confidential".

Or just review some of the comments at Amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/Corporate-Confiden...

It might help you keep your job...

Paramount - I apologize if I came off as arrogant. You are right that IT is a moving target and skills change rapidly. That is why you must consistently stay tuned with the industry and keep up skills outside of the workplace. For many that are in the industry this is a challenge because they lack passion (one of those pesky "subjective" ideals you deride so much). If you don't have passion for what you do and are just doing it to pay the bills then why even live? You sound like you are definitely bitter and probably shouldn't be in the industry.

Just FYI, your suspicions are wrong. I've been brushed aside and dismissed more than once because I was "too young". The knife cuts both ways my friend - also try telling the 40 and 50 yr old senior engineers I work with that they are also facing discrimination. Based on the tone of your post I simply think the problem isn't your age or skills but maybe your attitude?

But I do wish you the best - it is always tough to lose a job, especially with a family.

As far as skills that I've seen that are in demand - I screen resumes for new hires and we can't find many decent engineers with experience in the following areas:

1. Embedded system design (ARM programming, device driver programming)
2. Advanced Perl skills - lots of legacy web applications need to be maintained and are written in Perl. extensive CPAN knowledge is a requirement
3. Healthcare knowledge (EMR, MPI and HL7 experts)
4. Emerging mobile platform skills - Android/J2ME and iPhone (these platforms are so new that developers are in very short supply with expert level skillsets)
5. OS X - Cocoa and Objective C experts. OS X is a growing market that we actively target and most good Cocoa developers are snatched up by Apple or work for a cushy ISV
6. Developers with Secret or TS clearance - there are several advanced government defense projects that need skilled developers with clearance. I've seen at least one company hiring for these projects in San Diego within the last week.
7. Linux/FOSS developers - a lot of healthcare initiatives are being proposed to the Obama administration and there is expected to be a large amount of funding available for a large national conversion to electronic medical records and IT healthcare systems. Almost every initiative that has passed through my desk has been based on open source technology and Linux. The largest healthcare IT project (VA VistA) is a model open-source development. One of the largest open source Vista software companies has just recently relocated to Carlsbad (from Aliso Viejo) and is actively hiring developers.
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There are 7 skillsets that I've tracked over the last year that either have openings locally (San Diego or Orange County) or I have actively tried to hire for. If you possessed those skills you'd have a 6 figure job instantly, despite your age.

I may be the lucky one but took an "IT" job with a local insurance company and they decided to spend in a down market by phasing out all legacy systems to a centralized ERP platform, which has been done once in the US for a certain line of business. Luckily I was an ex-sap consultant in the right place at the right time.

Point is to not assume all industries are bad IT shops, they could have something on the horizon.

"Also, some companies keep positions open on the website even though they have a hiring freeze. It's a image thing. Some even go through the song and dance of interviewing people (locally that requires no cost), only to not hire."

Very true, I interviewed several times over the years at Oracle Corporation. Qualified for the open DBA jobs. Every time did well on the interviews and background check. Then hiring freeze emails and phone calls from the manager and recruiter. Very frustrating to spend hours and get hopes up for a job prospect only to have it turn to dirt.

Right, as observed.

Agreed, but irrelevant. The sad part is that the candidates were aware of all that (it was a LAMP stack webdev, not an IT position). The incident reminded me of late 2002/early 2003 when people with established careers and decade(s) of experience were just looking for something to tide them over and were taking 50% pay cut.

Demand has softened somewhat, but its still there. Good people are still hard to find, as usual.

And any IT gig that can be outsourced isn't a job most folks would want in the first place.

The new administration I believe will be investing in high speed internet access for all type of thing.

I would think that will lead to good things in IT but who knows.

A colleague of a colleague of a colleague of mine recommended this reading which I found amusing. Though currently, not as relevant, since we're such a small shop. It probably would have come in handy when I was at a much larger company decades ago.

"21 Dirty Tricks Work Politics"

http://www.amazon.com/21-Dirty-Tricks-Wo...

Seeing so much crap from other employers, that's why you'll never hear a peep about my current employer from me. Because relatively speaking, it's one of the best ones Ive encountered. (2) I never talk about the current employer or immediate previous one.

The thing about having hopped in the past when I was much younger is that I got to see at sorts of games some (not all) companies played, big and small. Frankly, corporate politics is unavoidable, big or small. Engineers that think they don't need to understand how it works are deluded in thinking they'll be fine...

Everyone needs to play at a bare minimum so one doesn't get screwed. And one needs to ensure his/her immediate manager/director/vp (whatever the reporting structure is) is playing the bare minimum for the benefit of his/her team and not to screw the people on that team. (Even met a person that would be willing to step over you or your team, to prop him/herself up solely??? Watch out if those people become your director/vps....)

If that doesn't jive, one probably needs to either put up with it or reconsider in working in a company that isn't self-owned. (nothing wrong with it, and some of us have motivated to do things off to the side for that reason, in case that "job" becomes more of a chore than something enjoyable)

I don't think folks here are trying to be arrogant about this. It's no surprise that technology (not IT specifically) is constantly evolving. To stay in this field, frankly you have to keep up. And frankly, as you get older, you get slower too, from your twenty something counterparts. I'm in my mid thirties, and frankly, I'm starting to see my own limitations. I can't churn out stuff as fast I use to be able to (although I like to think the stuff I produce is a lot less crappier than before). BUT, here's hte wrinkle. I don't think you can expect to be a forever "code monkey". There is no challenge in coding, or writing code. It's the same sh!t in a different language, and software technology hasn't really "evolved". It's same circular things over over and over again, done faster or cheaper.

What makes software unique is what the creator allows it to do.. You can outsource labor. You cannot outsource innovation. Innovation is about creativity and ingenuity. Ideas aren't just going to "stop" in the U.S.. But let's face it, a code "programmer" is just that "hired labor". No different from a mechanic or accountant.

And another thing, if you ever worked creating a conceptual project is done by an outsourced team, for which requirements weren't stated such that a monkey could write the code, you'll quickly learn how difficult it is to get a non-local team to prototype a "beta" idea. It's easy to get an outsource team to do a project that everything is well defined (either maintanence or add on features or a well stated/well documented project). Trying to get conceptual/fuzzy ideas prototyped on outsourced team, well not so easy.
No generally, once something goes into "maintenance" mode, yeah I guess it can be outsourced...BUT why would you want to stay working on "maintanence" if you had a choice? I would be a huge proponent of outsource all our maintenance if I had a choice, because there a bunch more projects I'd like to launch and have my team to build... I can't possibly scale without offloading all the old stuff to someone else. Of course, it requires everyone on the team to learn something new again, which can be frustrating...But it beats getting folks to get stuck on something, like some ex-Cobol programmers.

That said, innovation isn't gonna just come from U.S. India/china too will be cranking out stuff too. Same with the eastern europe slovic countries. BUT, is this really an end of U.S. development and innovation?

BTW: I see plenty of people in their 40ies and 50ies that are functioning as architects, software entrepreneurs, and/or own their own software shops. They don't "program" anymore. Coding isn't that difficult to learn. You can take a UCSD extension course for 1-2 months and pretty much do a good portion of one knows from school and/or hands-on experience)...Same shit, different language.... It surprises me a lot when folks in interviews ask questions like "give me the exact API for some method on some java function"....Um, step (1), open up the javadoc API guide, step (2) read what the API does...This isn't brain surgery that requires one to memorize things.

Regarding unionization. It will be interesting to look back and see if unionization and costs of unionization are a factor into why GM/Ford/Chrysler ultimately fail.

You know, there is nothing wrong with candidates who are willing to take a paycut.

I mean, different people have different needs. When one has a family to feed, one often has to dig a ditch for the family so to speak versus someone single for example.And there might be situations like this. Hopefully for those folks, though, it's only temporary.

On the other hand, there are some people that will routinely sell themselves short, out of desperation.. I don't know, I guess it's more mental.

I can say that anyone that takes that position knowingly 30-50% below market will quickly bolt when a better position turns up, making a net loss on the company that employs them anyway. And if I were that person, I wouldn't be keeping all my design docs/information/code comments up to snuff to assist a smooth transition when I do bolt. And that's exactly what's gonna happen to this company, with whoever they employ. A bitter employee that started on the wrong foot, and you'll never get that person to do anything more that he/she "has" to do.

Sorry, point well taken. Did not mean to overly generalize.

...There was an annoying headhunter that called me the other day telling me about an "awesome position locally in the insurance industry"...It only required me to take a 2-level demotion....I tell recruiter, I have a few senior engineers that might be interested...He tells me, they're looking for more higher level people to do senior engineering work, versus hiring senior engineers to do senior engineering work. Either the recruiter is being an ass or company is being an ass or both.... FAIL/ FAIL. Most likely, wasn't your company....

If you look at it this way, everything can technically be "outsourced/insourced"

Why hasn't a company/stealerships in San Diego offered to flatbed a group of cars down to Mexico to have them serviced, give customers a bunch of 1-day loaner cars, and flatbedded them back. I'm sure from a cost perspective, it might make sense...Probably, one of the major considerations is the logistics.

There is a logistics issue on whenever one outsources/insources. It depends on whether the logistics PITA outweigh the cost benefit. 16+ hr time zone difference is a major logistics issue, especially for development that needs to be done is "fuzzy". Opening a satellite office to do design and development is completely different, and there isn't anything wrong with that. Innovation needs to happen at more than one location.

BTW doing business with some countries, you cannot have employees/data located somewhere else. China is one of them. So for some companies that want to enter some markets, you have to have a staff overseas.

Technically, house cleaning (and gardening) for the most part is already "insourced". Cheaper labor is brought into the country to do this (albeit illegal in most cases).

Question: Anyone want to comment if radiologists are being outsourced to overseas doctors??? Don't now. But that seems like to be a possibility. Anything seems to be a possibility with this outsourcing fear.

Yup! There is even a term for it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teleradiology

Telemedicine in general is a *huge* growth area. I know a few IT folks working in that arena, in fact.

However, I'll comment that the outsourcing is more likely to go to another US hospital rather than overseas.

A great example of how nothing is safe from outsourcing is InvisiAlign. It's basically off-shoring orthodontic work to Costa Rica.

Note that this hasn't exactly put American orthodontists out of business. Patients still need to see a local dentist during the treatment process.

The whole trick with outsourcing is to embrace it and figure out how to benefit from it, vs. fighting it.

I'll add that there is also nothing wrong with being under-employed.

I'm making about half what someone with my experience should be, but that is by deliberate choice. I'm basically trading salary for security, benefits and more free time.

My perspective/experience with IT:

I work for the biggest telecom company in San Diego in IT and am in early thirties.
We are always looking for good people in IT and when I say good people, we mean:
1) Excellent technical skills
2) Good Communication/interpersonal skills
3) Attitude and aptitude to learn things fast and being curious.
4) Good Project management capabilities

Needless to say, it is very very difficult to find good people in IT. Even today, we have couple of openings though we have a blanket hiring freeze.
We have even outsourced a major portion of our development work to India. Now problems with outsourcing:
1) Major time difference
2) Same as above: Difficult to find good people.

Personally, I feel IT demands a lot on a person as technology is changing very rapidly. One always has to keep oneself uptodate. But this is the case with any knowledge based profession ( Medical/Engineering/Accounting ).
Most of the knowledge based profession can be easily outsourced to other countries which does not need tangible interaction with a person located here. For example:

1) Lots of IT jobs
2) Few Medical Jobs: Example: Radiologists
3) Tax/Accounting jobs

Few of the reasons, my company is expanding big time in India:
1) Large number of people with good skillset
2) H1B Visa problems in USA
3)Somewhat cheaper to outsource in India

In essence, with the general economy being bad, all kinds of job markets are affected and IT is no exception to this. But good people in any field in general are always difficult to find and thus no job issue for them.

Age Bias: I feel it definitely exists though one can reduce this bias with excellent technical skills