Home Price Rally Returns with a Vengeance

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 6, 2010 - 5:49pm
The median price per square foot of existing homes sold in San Diego County, after having gone pretty much nowhere since last fall, rose dramatically in the month of March.



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Submitted by sobmaz on April 6, 2010 - 7:35pm.

It is amazing how influential free money can be to the economy.

It is like the FED and the Government has dumped and dumped gallons of gasoline on the smoldering fire and it is quickly igniting.

Don't they call that the "finale". Isn't that usually the end of something?

Submitted by Oxford on April 6, 2010 - 8:23pm.

buy baby buy.

ox
...bubbles are fun

Submitted by SD Realtor on April 7, 2010 - 12:26am.

Actually the increase is pretty tame compared to the rise in the equities market.

Everything is fine! Like Ox said buy baby buy!!

Submitted by livinincali on April 7, 2010 - 9:17am.

Based on the chart march seems to be a strong month. In 2006 march produced a strong bounce. In march 2007 march produced a noticable bounce and in March 2008 the market stayed flat in a severe decline. Based on 2006 and 2007 it seems prices might rally into June-July this year, which would make sense with the expiring tax credit. I'll be curious to see if the sales remain robust in May and June with the rising mortgage rates (they're up about 25 basis points since the fed stopped the MBS purchase program) and tax credit expiration.

Submitted by weberlin on April 7, 2010 - 9:48am.

livinincali wrote:
...which would make sense with the expiring tax credit. I'll be curious to see if the sales remain robust in May and June with the rising mortgage rates (they're up about 25 basis points since the fed stopped the MBS purchase program) and tax credit expiration.

Yeah, let's see what happens in the coming months. The second half of 2010 seems to be the consensus target for the 'new financial meltdown'.

Will the government try to counter rising mortgage rates? Cash for caulkers anyone?

Submitted by poorgradstudent on April 7, 2010 - 11:23am.

I do imagine this is a short term surge thanks to the pending expiration of the $8k credit and the perception that interest rates are going to start going up. I'd be interested to see the low-medium-high breakdown; I'm guessing a lot of the gains are coming from the low end of the market. Also, Spring does tend to see a bounce in activity.

I guess the other thing for the permabears around here to keep in mind is the economy IS improving, and governments do typically throw money at problems to soften blows. The government can easily use monetary policy to support current prices long enough for inflation and improved employment to stabilize things.

All that said, I fully expect a dip back down as the $8k credit expires.

Submitted by Fletch on April 7, 2010 - 12:46pm.

Rich has probably addressed how his data differs from other sites, but I'm wondering if anyone might know why this March bump isn't reflected in the Redfin data? I looked (on Redfin) at all of San Diego (and my zip codes of interest) and nowhere did I see a significant bump for March.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 7, 2010 - 1:28pm.

Fletch, a couple ideas on this.

First, I was displaying the SD city Redfin graph whereas the above is SD County. I've swapped out for the new SD County graph, which you can see to the right.

Second, they have more of a continuous line, whereas I do a single monthly update averaging an entire month. That could cause differences if inter-month changes got "washed out" of my lines, or if a smoother trend in their line resulted in a more pronounced leap upward in mine (the latter of which I assume happened in March).

Considering those factors, I think it looks pretty consistent with the redfin data.
Rich

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on April 7, 2010 - 1:35pm.

From redfin's site:

"Unless otherwise specified, we calculate these values using moving windows that present the metrics based on the 90-day period ending on the given date shown on the graph."

http://www.redfin.com/help/real-estate-t...

If you compute a 3-month average from Rich's plot, it will look a lot like the redfin plot.

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on April 7, 2010 - 1:40pm.

I also wanted to point out an observation upon closer inspection of Rich's graph ...

You can now clearly see that we indeed hit bottom on April 17, 2009 at 9:37 pm as I indicated last Spring.
http://piggington.com/welcome_to_the_bottom

bottombottom

Submitted by livinincali on April 7, 2010 - 1:57pm.

uh oh. Now you just jinxed it. It is interested that as soon as the fed turned on the liquidity spigot in March of 2009 that the market stabilized. I wonder if they'll have to do it again and if so would it be as successful the next time around. The problem is these liquidity floods always end up creating bubbles and crashes. The 1999-2000 stock market bubble was caused by the fed liquidity spigot to prevent a Y2K panic. Now it looks like we have another stock market bubble forming. Oh well, people like bubbles until they blow up.

Submitted by creative_cpa on April 7, 2010 - 2:17pm.

If you want a real world example of the after effects of a liquidity flood, look at the sales of new cars the day after the "cash-for-clunkers" promotion ended.

Cash for ClunkersCash for Clunkers

Submitted by Fletch on April 7, 2010 - 2:20pm.

Great, thanks much for clarifying that Rich.

Submitted by sdcellar on April 7, 2010 - 2:34pm.

FSD-- That's awesome!

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 7, 2010 - 3:26pm.

Ha ha, excellent job FSD! I like your visual aid too.

Though I'm still surprised that the bottom happened at night.

Rich

Submitted by CA renter on April 7, 2010 - 10:57pm.

FormerSanDiegan wrote:
I also wanted to point out an observation upon closer inspection of Rich's graph ...

You can now clearly see that we indeed hit bottom on April 17, 2009 at 9:37 pm as I indicated last Spring.
http://piggington.com/welcome_to_the_bottom

bottombottom

Good call, FSD! :)

Submitted by Huckleberry on April 9, 2010 - 8:07am.

Hmmm, strange... This may be representative of all SD county, but definitely not the coastal neighborhoods that I watch.

I see places come on the market (still overpriced) and sit and sit, while the prices on them are continually lowered.

I figure as long as I see properties exhibiting these characteristics, I would be retarded to buy right now...

Submitted by desmond on April 9, 2010 - 5:27pm.

Vengeance? San Diego is #1, #1 in short sales:

http://www.facorelogic.com/uploadedFiles...

Not a healthy market, it's just a big going "out of business" sale.

Submitted by temeculaguy on April 9, 2010 - 10:44pm.

FSD-Epic post!!! Bonus points for the Mr. mortgagesque arrow on your chart. Since you are on a roll with predictions and the NBA playoffs are right around the corner, any predictions? It could be lucrative, if gambling on sports were legal that is.

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on April 12, 2010 - 11:02am.

TG - In my NCAA bracket I had Butler losing in the first round, so I have little confidence in my sports preditcions ... That said, since I am not really a Lakers fan, I would have to go with the LeBrons breaking through and taking it this year. It is time for the King to take his throne.

/end threadjack

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