San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

GREAT question.

I'm guessing 1.2 trillion, in additional bad debt bail out of banks, not including tacked on pork

I suspect there may not be another bail out. I don't know if the new bailout that did pass had the same language as the first one that got shot down. If it did, with the Treasury getting basically unlimited power with no accountability to anyone, this bailout might turn out to be sufficiently an open ended blank check. The $700 billion will magically transform into trillions, maybe about 3 to 5, without another bill being passed. When? Gradually over the coming months. The bailout will do absolutely nothing to prevent the collapse, just as nationalizing Freddie and Fannie and AIG did absolutely nothing, so as the economy continues to deteriorate in the coming months, they will just keep pouring more and more money on it. But I'll bet they will do it mostly on the sly. And they will really freak when the Xmas retail numbers are weak...

I doubt the public will tolerate another one. They would have been wiser to keep doing the little ones they had been doing. Now that J6pack is aware of it, they wont be able to pull it off if this one fails to work, which it will. It wasn't even 3 hours before every article on CNBC switched from "we need this to save everyone" to "this is just a start, we want more." Buffet and many other offered their opinion before the vote on how it was needed and just after they all said it wont do the trick. People I know that don't follow or understand macroeconomics or polotics were enraged today about the pork and the media saying that it isn't enough. I saw people that didn't even know who their congressional representative was until today, start memorizing names of who voted for it.

On a side note, the blue dog democrats are the only ones who will come out of this smelling like a rose, there is a real possibility of creating a 3rd party over the next few years since they have gotten so much attention over this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Dog_De...

Realistically I don't think there is any way another bailout will pass. This was pretty much the last chance.

Agree with underdose.

This was just the foot in the door. From here, they will find a way to manipulate the amount they can spend, without voting on another bill.

It will "just happen" and most Americans will wake up one day (probably between now and February 1, 2009) to hear that the govt will now increase the limit to $2 trillion. At some point, it will be $5 trillion because: "THE CRISIS WILL MEAN THE END OF THE WORLD AND WE WILL ALL BE DOOOOOMED IF WE DON'T SPEND THIS MONEY!!! WE CAN'T TAKE THE TIME TO VOTE BECAUSE WE NEED THE MONEY NOW, NOW, NOW!!!"

Something like that. ;)

Bingo! The new bill is the same as the old with 140 billion extra in pork for the greasy little congress people to dine on, so it's now up to 840 billion now. No need for a new one he has a blank check. I think he might have to get a note signed by the president or something to access more funds. But no inconvenient vote. I'm sure it will be the strictest of oversight;)

I don't think bail-out is the correct word. Maybe "Kleptocracy transition bill" or what ever perverse form of government we are going to.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/...

"The one thing that's been proven is the absolute fear-mongering that's being used to drive us is false," Sherman said. "I've seen members turn to each other and say if we don't pass this bill, we're going to have martial law in the United States."

Ok, so the legal structure of martial law is no congressional oversight i.e full dictatorial powers given to the president. I'm not sure there is a difference between a threat of martial law and actual martial law philosophically. Maybe the congress people are just paranoid nut-jobs?

I think it is safe to assume we are not in Kansas anymore.

You guys aren't thinking of the bigger picture. This is just the start of many coming bailouts.

Things that will likely be coming down the road:

-homeowner bailouts(my bad rescue plan)
-small/large business bailouts (my bad rescue plan)
-state/city bailouts (my bad rescue plan)

We will pretty much bailout anything that walks. We are now heading down the path that everything has to be saved in the name of the average American and their jobs, savings, or future.

The end result of all of this will be a destruction of the dollar and the US defaulting on its debt. This game will go on as long as foreign governments decide to buy our debt at cheap prices. Once that goes away, the game is up. The problem is we have no idea how long that will last.

The passage of this bill is truly a sad day in American history. I will vote against anyone who voted for this bill regardless of party. They have just mortgaged the financial future or our country and made us all debt slaves beholden to foreign masters.

I think this is the only bailout of this type we will see. We may get some more banks or big buisness bailouts, 50 billion here or there, but I dont think we will see anymore blank check bailouts.

Why you ask? Because, this one is a revolving bailout. If I read it right, they can never excede 700B at any one time. So they overpay for some POS MBS and then accept too little back. We all agree that is the only way this thing works. So they sell the MBS and are now under the 700B limit, so they sell more debt and keep the crap processor working.

Yeah, I had forgotten that this is a $700 billion revolving line of credit.

How does that work in this bill anyway? If they start off with a $700 billion line of credit, buy some toxic sludge for $350 billion and then turn around and sell that same sludge for $100 billion, does this mean the line of credit is back to $700 billion or is it down to $450 billion?

How does that work in this bill anyway? If they start off with a $700 billion line of credit, buy some toxic sludge for $350 billion and then turn around and sell that same sludge for $100 billion, does this mean the line of credit is back to $700 billion or is it down to $450 billion?

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That's what I'm trying to figure out as well.

As they take losses, is that reflected in the total $700B, or is it only $700B in purchases/assets held at a time, and when those assets are sold, it resets back to a $700B blank check?

[dr evil accent]

One Hundred BILLION dollars !!!

Based on historical financial crisis this bailout will eventuall cost the taxpapyers of the US about 21% of GDP or about $3 trillion. I'd estimate the next package is going to be a monster. Over $1 trillion. It will happen before inauguration of President McCain.

Don't forget home builders, auto-makers, airlines, and Pennsylvania Dutch wooden shoe makers.

Does that mean it will never happen ?