San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Louise,

Have you considered renting instead of buying? Getting anything in a good neighborhood with good schools and less than 30 minutes commute to la jolla and downtown for less than 550k at this time seems like a tall order to me. If you rented, you might be able to find a place that would work for you.

Also if you rented, you would get a better idea of commutes, neighborhoods and schools, which would allow you to figure out what you are willing to compromise on.

I'm also assuming you want a house. If you are willing to take a condo, you might be able to find something in the 500k price range.

XBoxBoy

Thanks for your reply. Yeah, when looking around online to see what is available, I realize that everything is little too expensive. I guess I would compromise on the commute. We rent a house now, and I could rent again, perhaps the smartest to do, but we have already moved so much (From Sweden to Pasadena to Valencia). So, if I rent I would like to rent in a neighborhood where I probably could afford to bye after a while, so we would live in the same school-area.

When I lived in Carmel Valley, it was the ultimate family kingdom and I worked in La Jolla at the time, near UTC and had a 5-10 minute commute max. It seems every house in CV has kids in it. Great family community and homes not that expensive (relatively speaking). The schools are the best in San Diego county from what I could tell and still are I believe.

I don't know what $550k will get you there. Probably an under 1,800sf 2 or 3 br town house or nice condo. I think a detached house would probably run more like $700k, but I don't know in this market. Perhaps you can now find something for $550k under 2,000 sf and 2 or 3BR. That would surprise me, but this market is dropping by the day. I would think SD Realtor, Rustico, or SDR would be able to tell you with certainty.

Poway also has good schools from what I can tell and lower prices than CV.

Thanks, I will look at Carmel Valley. If houses are ~$700000 there now, they might have gone down little more to the summer.

If your work depends on being close to San Diego I can't help you, but if location is flexible why not Temecula?

I know -- the San Diego snobs will be shooting me down in the next post -- since Temecula has grown too fast, has traffic problems and is hotter than the coastal areas.

Now that we are past that, you should be able to buy something quite nice between 300 and 500k, and the schools are excellent. The Temecula Children's Museum is brilliant, and there are many services relating to recreation and education.

I have lived in both Temecula and Murrieta and really think there are many good aspects of these communities for families.

Okay San Diego folks, have a rip at me for even suggesting this.

JS

PS: and by the way, there are many well-developed areas here with recent, fire-resistant homes away from canyons and hills that are likely to burn.

Scripps Ranch is worth checking out - easy commute downtown via 15->163 and into La Jolla by 52. It is an area with excellent schools and a lot of families with children.

If you get anything from this board, you will want to SERIOUSLY consider renting. As we see real estate prices continuing to fall, buying seems like a losing proposition in many ways.

For $3,000/month, you should be able to rent a very nice, very respectable family home in Scripps Ranch.

I think that the traffic getting in and out of Carmel Valley is horrific, but to each his own.

Maybe we should rent first year, but as I wrote above, I don't want to rent a $M house, so we have to buy somewhere else and the kids will loose the friends. But I do understand your point, you can rent a very nice home now for a good price. I will commute to La Jolla everyday, my husband travels a lot, so it would be better to live closer to my work. We have looked at Carlsbad, but how long does it really take to go from there to La Jolla? Temecula is too far, I think. Thanks both of you for your reply.

I just had a crazy idea.

Find some condo conversion that is going up for auction and buy a two-bedroom for the adults and a studio for the kids.

Might be able to get it under 500k?

I agree with scripps ranch, but you will still have trouble with the 550k budget. I think the best house price to school quality ratio in a central area is in San Carlos/Del Cerro. Some of the better SD City schools (Hearst, Benchley Weinberger, Greene) and you can even find OK places for 550k.

Still, like everyone says, you'll do better with your 550k the longer you wait. I would say don't be afraid to rent in the neighboorhood that slightly above your current budget, and hope you income increase or price drops allow you to get in as buyer in a few years.

That would be so nice, then maybe me and my husband would have the chance to get more kids :D I think a 5 year old could be responsible for his own meals and read his own bedtime story :-) Hmmm, just in case, any other suggestions?

Commute from Carlsbad down to La Jolla, and then for your husband to downtown is in a single word.... UGLY! I would think an hour each way.

The I-5 through north county is very backed up going south in the morning and going north in the evening. Expect speeds of 10-20mph the whole way.

Take a look at this traffic map during a typical commute time and I think you will see lots of red on it on the I-5

http://www.dot.ca.gov/dist11/d11tmc/sdma...

Unless you really want to spend hours on the freeway, I wouldn't suggest Carlsbad.

I agree with asragov about Scripts Ranch.

You can definitely rent a nice house in Scripts & buy a decent house in Scripts for $550k when the market bottoms out. The schools are good. The commute to La Jolla & downtown is not bad.

And best of all, it's a "family oriented community".

So, Carlsbad is out.
Thanks for giving me some names, I will check them later. Now I will go to my car and drive my 1 h commute to Valencia.

If you end up renting (or buying) - I would look in the University City area - north of 52 along Govenor drive. There are areas there that the prices are very high but others you could certainly rent affordably if you can afford a 550K home. The schools are good and the commute to both downtown and La Jolla would be good relatively speaking. La Jolla would be 10 minutes and downtown would be pretty short as well.

I think there are a couple of areas just south of 52 that are okay, but I do not think the schools (lower grades) are as good.

4S Ranch is your best bet by far. You may be able to get into a small SFH for 550K (Garden Walk). In addition, to being a very family oriented community the whole community is engineered to withstand firestorms like San Diego recently experience. 4S have same climate as Carmel Valley, Schools which are equal, and cost significantly less for the same sq/ft in a SFH. With the extension of Carmel Valley Road through 4S you are no about 2-3 minutes farther from the beach or La Jolla than you would be from Carmel Valley. Also no small benefit . . . . Temecula is way to far. Your husband who works in La Jolla will be chained to his car for 3 hrs a day if you buy in Temecula and work in La Jolla. I would not condemn him to that torture (3 hrs a day in SD traffic).

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/28/weekin...

grateful owner . . . .

Louise -

Your best bet is not 4S or Carmel Valley, or Scripps, or Temecula. Your best bet is to come down to San Diego and rent for awhile while you get to know the area. Basically there are plenty of neighborhoods that you will find within 1/2 hour from La Jolla that will be fine choices to raise your children. What you will do while you rent for a year is to hunt around and get to know all of these locations and the impact of the commute, the school districts, the community... etc...

Look, what is important to you? Do you like big yards? Do you like new homes verses older homes? Do you want to tolerate Mello Roos? Do you want to be more coastal? I grew up in Northridge and Marina Del Rey but have been down in San Diego for over 25 years. If I had never been to L.A. but emailed you saying I was moving to L.A. and working in Chatsworth, where should I buy a home, what would you say? There is a multitude to choose from but you don't know my taste so you would probably say, go rent for awhile and get to know the area.

Same for San Diego, there are plenty of homes or condo's to rent in the community that are within 1/2 hour of La Jolla. Do that, go for a 6 month or 1 year lease, then you will really get in tune with the city and find the ideal area for you.

SD Realtor

I second Carmel Valley, south of 56 in Torrey Hills or Carmel Country Highlands area. Unfortunately, that area is not "Fire proof" like 4closure, I mean 4S Ranch :(

But school-wise it's great: There are 3 elementary schools, including Sage Canyon, Torrey Hills, and Ocean Air. You can check them out to see how they compare to other schools.

Thanks again for your answers.
SD realtor wrote- Basically there are plenty of neighborhoods that you will find within 1/2 hour from La Jolla that will be fine choices to raise your children.
Can you name some? Of course I will not pick a city based on what everybody writes here, and buy there, but only use your info as a starting point. We will go down to SD on the weekends and look. Since it seems like so many here live in San Diego I thought I could use the info to get a head start. I myself prefer nice craftsman’s houses, but as a mom I really like the new constructions, they tend to have lots of kids. Small grass backyard is fine.
For example, if you look at Mira Mesa on Zip realty, they have nice new homes, seems perfect but if you read on blogs you stumble over comments like “gang activity” “dangerous streets” etc. I don’t know, it is hard to get good info. All communities and cities seem so nice when you read about them.
We were in San Diego two weeks ago and drove in La Jolla and Del Mar. Very nice and expensive (I knew that, we looked just for fun) I talked to a realtor in an open house and told this story (me-La Jolla, my Husband downtown) and she seriously suggested Ocean side. I kind of decided at once that I should not ask her for any more advice. I am grateful for the info I can get, and I will not hold it against anybody.

Why not live in one of many fine condoplexes in LJ and send the kids to the Montessori school with the money you save?

http://montessorilajolla.com/index.htm

On a related note, does anyone know where you can get good reliable stats on the quality of public schools in SD?

Hi Louise -

So here are the ones you already heard...

Carmel Valley - A very large area stretching from Highway 5 to the west to several miles to the east. It is within 15-30 minutes to La Jolla depending on where in Carmel Valley you live and where in La Jolla you work. The western portion of CV is older homes built in the 80s and 90s and new developments are in the eastern part of CV. Very good schools, lots of families, many professionals live there including tons of engineers, medical professionals, etc... Some of the older housing is not subject to Mello Roos fees. There are also many condos in CV as well. Lots to choose from. No gang activity that I know of. Not huge lots but a good housing stock. Most homes are out of the price range you are thinking but they are coming down. You will need patience.

4S Ranch - It is a stretch to say 4S is 30 minutes from La Jolla. It is located west of Rancho Bernardo off of I15 and consists of homes built from say the late 90s to this very day with new construction continuing. Good schools, good community, pricing is high but also coming down. Most every home out there will involve Mello Roos fees and possible HOA as well. No gang activity that I know of out there as well.

Scripps - I live here. It is about at the 30 minute commute limit. Distance wise it is not far but it is a pain because there is not a direct east west artery. Scripps is composed of two distinct regions, old and new scripps. Old Scripps has homes built in the 70s and they show it... however they are also on larger lots with wider easements so you do not feel crammed in like you do in newer communites such as those listed above. New Scripps has homes built in the 90s and up. The schools are SD unified unless you are in Stone Bridge but you would not be there due to price as they are Poway. The school ratings here are okay, no they do not stand up as strong to the schools in CV or 4S but they are still good. No real gang activity or dangerous streets here either.

University City is very close to La Jolla. UC borders La Jolla to the east and is composed of older housing stock, 60s and 70s mostly. No Mello Roos fees here as well. The easements between the homes are okay, not as large as scripps but larger then CV and 4S. UC is a very established community that is about as centrally located as anywhere in SD. The school system is SD unified and is okay. Not as strong as CV or 4S. Honestly I don't know how it compares to Scripps. Not much gang activity that I know of here either.

Note both UC and Scripps border communities where there is some gang activity. Scripps border Mira Mesa and UC borders Clairemont. While these communities border these other ones I would not discount them.

Also while there is gang activity in say Mira Mesa I have lived there before and not had problems. I know some posters that live there to and one who grew up there. They speak very highly of it.

Back to communities....

Rancho Penasquitos, Sabre Springs - These two communities are also on the 30 minute or more commute path to La Jolla. They are more affordable then some of the others mentioned. Both are served by the Poway school district which is a great school district. RP to the northeast has some less desireable area. Sabre Springs does not. RP housing stock is older, built in the 70s and 80s. SS is much newer and built in the 90s and up. You may end up paying Mello Roos in SS. Both of these communities are quite family oriented and again, are more affordable then the others mentioned and there are homes available in both these communities at your current price levels.

There are other communities but I am growing tired. Baypark to the south of La Jolla, Encinitas to the north (about 30 minutes away from LJ) but there are traffic issues getting up there.

Anyways hope this is helpful for now.

SD Realtor

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076064216-10...

Here is a nice detached 4b/3b house in Scripps Ranch listing for $485,000 to $530,876 . HOA is only $88/month. If it weren't the bears here suggested that I waited for atleast another year I would have seriously think about buying it.

Take the Photo Tour.

Thanks so much! Now I have a lot to read :-)

In my humble opinion, I think Encinitas should be considered.
Encinitas has good school, good neighborhood, close to La Jolla and it is definitely a great coastal area. The price is dropping by the day.

You have options like these:
1280 SANTA FE DRIVE, Encinitas, CA 92024 $599,000
2797 sqfts
4 bedrooms
3 baths
4 days on market

352 TRAILVIEW RD, Encinitas, CA 92024 $579,000
1800 sqfts
4 bedrooms
2 baths
25 days on market

209 VILLAGE RUN W, Encinitas, CA 92024 $565,000
2329 sqfts
5 bedrooms
3 baths
89 days on market

With the current market, I am quite positive you can negotiate some more, maybe 5-7% cheaper. Really depend on how despair the homeowners are.

But still, I think the market is not going to turn around anytime soon. I won't touch real estates until the dusts are somewhat settled first. I foresee some RE bloodbaths in 2008/2009.

My suggestion remains the same: "Sit tight & enjoy the show. "

Masayako

San Diego County school test scores are available here:

http://api.cde.ca.gov/AcntRpt2007/2007Gr...

You can debate what is good and what is not so good, but you can check out Scripps Ranch (highest middle school score - Marshall Middle), La Jolla (highest elementary school score at Bird Rock), and Preuss School at UCSD (high school) to get an idea of the top. This is in the San Diego Unified school district.

You have some higher scores outside the San Diego Unified district (a whole other conversation - but I believe if your kids are talented, it is better to be in the San Diego district) at Sage Canyon (Del Mar Union elementary), and Carmel Valley Middle. Preuss UCSD beats most anyone in any district, but can also be considered a special case (charter school etc. etc.).

It is easy to scan these and see that La Jolla, Scripps Ranch, Del Mar-ish, and Coronado have excellent schools. Some other areas, well, not as much.

I do recruiting (volunteer) for my school's alumni association, so I am very attuned to school performance.

I understand the desire to buy, but consider that many analysts feel that the market is still 30-50% overvalued. By renting for a year or two or three, you might be saving over $100k-$200k.

PLEASE consider renting, if not only to learn the neighborhoods, but also to, possibly, save a huge, giant, enormous bundle.

I second Encinitas. I work in La Jolla, and live near Birmingham in Cardiff, and exit at Genessee and rarely does the morning drive take more than 25 minutes. The afternoon drive is generally about 30 minutes. So the downtown drive would probably add 20 minutes or so.

I see a lot of houses for rent east of El Camino Real, between Encinitas Blvd. and Leucadia (Rancho Santa Fe Rd.) making it quite easy to move when you are ready and stay within the same schools. The Park Place area of Cardiff is very family oriented, and has a good mix of rental and for sale homes, and you wouldn't have to switch schools.

I definitely think renting should be an option for you. Our move out here to San Diego earlier this year was our 2nd move in 3 years (from Washington DC to Denver to San Diego). We made the huge mistake of buying a house shortly after arriving in Denver, only to find out we weren't thrilled with the neighborhood and could've gotten better deals elsewhere, but we just weren't familiar enough with the area. Also, we ended up having to try to sell the house 2 yrs later when we were relocated yet again. Although I grew up in San Diego and am fairly familiar with the area, we made the decision to rent. It was not an easy decision, especially with two young children, two big dogs, a desire to settle into a house we called "home" and having been homeowners since college. We figure we'll rent for another year or two, really get to know the areas better and probably get more for our money in the long run. Make sure, however, you find a rental you really like in case you end up staying for a while. I'm not too thrilled with the place we have, but we don't plan to move again unless it's into our own home.

No need to compromise.

Lets see, you have stated that:

1. You will be working in La Jolla
2. You want a kid friendly community
3. You want good schools
4. You don't want to move out of the school district
5. You want a decent commute
6. You don't want to spend more than $550k

Folks here say rent first.

To me that says Carmel Valley.

1. Based on the STAR testing reports website, API scores, and bestschools.net, Carmel Valley schools have the best scores in SD County, better than even my planned home of RSF, and about as good as the best school districts up here in the Bay Area. That is not to say other SD districts are not great. Just that CV seems to get the top nod on that score. I did all that research down to the school when I first started looking for homes in North County this year. My school aged kids are currently in a fantastic school district (no not San Jose), so that was important to me.

2. Ok, when I lived there, my commute was under 10 min b/c I went to work early. But worse case is probably 20 min in traffic for you I would bet. Just mapquest from either extreme of CV to your work to get an estimate and then do that for the other locals folks mentioned.

3. If you agree with folks here to rent first, you can rent in CV, get a feel for the area, get your kids in great schools, and watch the market continue to plunge until you can get a nice detached house in CV in your price range or until your income lets you afford more house. Either way, seems to me you can't loose.

Note that I have no vested interest in CV. Although I once lived there and loved it and will be working there, I am not going to live there this time and my kids will end up in RSF schools, although probably Torry Pines for high school. I am also not suggesting that any of the other locals people suggested are not good options. I just saw what you were asking for and CV seems to me to be ideal for what you want.

The price premium for housing in good public school areas tends to multiply if you include all the factors. First, you have to pay way too much for housing. Second, you have to commute at least 45 minutes. Third, your utility bills will be higher for these more inland communities.

If I were looking for an affordable, family-friendly community situated perfectly for working in La Jolla and downtown I would choose Bay Park. The elementary schools are actually quite good, but the middle schools and high school suck.
Consider paying paying for private school from 6th grade on from the money you save on auto/commuting costs, utilities/ housing You can find bay/ocean view properties in areas where you do not need A/C here in the 600K range (and getting cheaper by the month).

P.S. - Regardless of where you end up, I also recommend renting first.

You should look into charter and magnet schools too. There's a lot of school choice in San Diego -- even regular neighborhood schools all seem to have a few places for kids from outside the area. Where you live and where your kids go to school can be independent decisions.