San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

What struck me was the total disconnection from an any sort of objective reality.

This area she lives in thrives on this carefully constructed facade of affluence and gentility. No one talks about the effects of the Great Recession, nor does anyone admit how truly bad things are and how much worse they might get.

I read another article today discussing the sense of entitlement amongst the Baby Boomers and how deeply entrenched it is. Reading this article, it's easy to see how far we still have to go and how few people truly understand the enormousness of the changes taking place.

not sure i agree. her main non-house expenses sound like property taxes and a nanny. She didn't sell the big house when she divorced a couple yrs back but it wasn't like some crazy irrational move. in retrospect it was dumb, i guess. she's gotta have a nanny. gotta pay taxes.

her main non-house expenses? So you think a
woman earning 175K can afford a 2.5 Milliion dollar
house?

it says she bought her husband out, so i'm going to
guess she is carrying a 1.25 Million dollar note.
that's a 7K/month payment or just about half her income.

if she had sold the house to her husband, she'd have a million, and if she could settle for a 500K house or even renting, until the bubble popped.

It is amazing how unreal the thinking is still

It is amazing how unreal the thinking is still

It is the whole woman's life. I don't have much sympathy either, but just imagine a lifestyle change that means you need to move out of your house, your neighborhood, leave all of your friends, move your kids to a poorer area, etc... because of a divorce. Happens all the time and it's tough. This woman has just not faced reality yet, but she will have to at some point.

I definitely think she's over her head and needs to downsize...But I think this article is slightly misleading. I'm pretty sure her yearly income is more than $275k/year.

$150k base salary but the bonus is unspecified. VP at a big financial institution, I'm pretty sure her bonus is at LEAST her base salary even on a bad year, if not more. And Mastercard isn't exactly doing terrible (yet)...
Some of these exec bonuses in financials are 1.5-3 times base. I think there's meets the eye. So I doubt you she really needs most people's sympathy here. Still, she should have downsized though. And her issue is living up to the "image". Common problem of americans.

It's interesting though that this area has the "appearance" of affluence. Hardly what I call afluent if one is a slave to debt.

not sure exactly what i mean; i see that she's in over her head, but somehow im not pissed at her. it's like a death or something. she never pictured herself getting divorced because of her parents. rationality doesn't enter into it. she's not really living extravagantly other than the house part. and the house part is highly psychological, in terms of her kids, etc. yeah she shouldve been 100% cold and calculating on divorce, but she wasn't and somehow, in this case, im not offended by her mindset. i'd be concerned for her financially, but , not , like angry. might be irraitonal on my part too

Don't you see her getting remarried and falling back into the cushy double income lifestyle again? And I bet this time she goes for someone with more money. This lady is never going to do the right thing for herself and her kids. I think it's sick that she would risk everything for this facade. The problem is that she has raised her kids to be materialistic junkies and is afraid to disappoint them (but mostly herself) by selling the house and adjusting their lifestyle to fit her current income. Seriously, cry me a river about how you are just hanging on yet you just have to buy new clothes for your party in the Hamptons and just have to buy those earrings. Why not assign the kids chores like cleaning the pool, shoveling snow, mowing the lawn, etc. which is all outsourced? Oh that's right, they are overscheduled with activities that you won't compromise. How about rent out a room or two in the house you won't sell? Oops, forgot, it's busy being repainted. How about selling one of the cars? No, you need one SUV for shuffling the kids around and the convertible the drive to parties to meet your next paycheck...I mean husband.

It says in the article that her housing expenses (outside of property taxes) are 8k-10k/month.

In reading it - the mom works hard at her career, but is struggling to live in that house and live at her former standard of living. (Where she could spend without thinking.) Lots of stress ot keep up appearances.

On the other hand - her Nanny lives in the same house, has the food/lodging/utilities paid, and makes 50k or so... She's doing pretty well, even without medical benefits.

The kids would actually do better with the life lesson that chores are good, stuff and things don't buy happiness, etc.

I can think of a lot of guys who be ok with that. Not sure how NY market is for ladies her age.

I'd prefer a fiscally responsible gal to help me fix my first marriage (not getting divorce just saying, if I were)....

She's a MILF and makes good coin but until she restructures she's just
a future Chapter 11

Depends on the woman, but guys marrying 50 year old women tend to have financial problems themselves.
Probably not much help there.

As a 40 something divorced guy who's spent some time dating and studied it like I've studied R/E, I can say that she represents a category me and my divorced buddies like to call "economic refugees." The symptoms and mindset are not unlike FB's thinking R/E will rebound to 2006 prices any day if they can just hold on a little longer and maybe refi. In her case or those in her category, she thinks an educated and wealthy man will be along any day to pay the freight for her life, what she fails to realize it that it isn't 1985 any longer, when those men were chasing her. I've studied some statistics and single women in their 20's and 30's are outnumbered or evenly matched by single men, after 40 and 50 it gets out of proportion, while the population isn't so drastically different, but for singles it is. For every 100 single women in their 50's and 60's, there are only 70 single men. Plus men in their 20's marry women 1.5 years younger than them, men in their 30's marry 3.1 younger but it goes to 9 years difference in the 50's and 60's, so her statistical sugar daddy is is 56 years old. Men that age aren't fired up about a women with three small kids, for the most part they are past that phase in life. Of those that wouldn't mind, the more marketable women are those who did downsize, who are responsible and who are not at the edge of a financial cliff, complete with the frazzled personality from the experience. Nothing is less attractive than a women who needs you as opposed to one that wants you. Plus the last guy is paying 75k a year in child support, 1,600 a week, older dudes with money who have danced that dance tend to be wary of those who have already skewered a man, the one dog you don't want to pet is the one with blood still dripping from it's teeth.

wow, TG, that sounds scary spot-on. You should be paid to give advice liek that to someone.

"the one dog you don't want to pet is the one with blood still dripping from it's teeth"

Hilarious! I'm telling you, TG, you should make a living from writing.

Your compliments are my payment and if I was paid then it would be called work, it would cease to be fun and probably cease to be funny. Turning your passion or hobby into a living rarely works out and in the end you just have one less hobby, the mere fact that gynecologists, male porn stars and professional golfers take time off for vacations or being sick is evidence of this theory.

Quite interesting TG. Not currently divorced but do to badgering been doing "research" on match.com just wondering what's out there, since I don't really get out. A couple of thoughts:

1) it is utterly unbelieveable the quality of the 37+ woman in this area. I search some other areas I lived before SD (just on the site) and it's amazing what's out there in SD.
2) you can almost spot warning signs for trouble through the message. I mean trouble in the sense that you are talking about.
3) With the sheer numbers out there it makes sense to do serious vetting before one dives in. I totally agree with your assessment about need hubby vs. wants hubby. The fact is if your potential lady spouse has not had kids and doesn't seem to want any, it's probably an ok thing, but the selection in that category is difficult
4) The 38-45 set who have children that are either out of or almost out of HS are interesting. It's as if there true focus was the child, they were fine with that, but it's time to get back into the "swing of things". That group might not be bad as long as the kids aren't delinquents
5) I am shocked by the 38+ search that has no kids and wants kids. Now when you see 25 photos and each one is totally hot, the body is fit and hard, I think why the hell is this person waiting this long to have kids? Could be some strange stories in that group. To me this group is tempting as I almost wouldn't mind going through it once more (ehh not really). In a perfect world she is some self employed or professional who is anxious to get back to it after the child is born. However raising a child and maintaining career is hard enough I can't imagine it's much easier at 40+ (especially on the mom I mean). So many who want a baby also want to exit the rat race.

So in the end I'll probably keep mine despite the many shortcomings and general meanness and bitterness and get her some supplements, such as meds or a young lover. I've never internet dated, I was just curious about the market in general.

The crazy thing is the web is a small subset imagine how many won't post a profile.

I am sick of these rich wannabes whining about how they are not able to "make it" on their six figure incomes or how they are struggling while living in million dollar McMansions. I think they need a lesson on poverty in America and what many in this country don't have. The arrogance is just amazing!

techy, your decision to stay with your spouse is a wise one. I will refrain from going into deep analysis of internet dating or dating after 40, while an entertaining topic, not one for the primarily married demographic here, perhaps that will be the topic of my first book. Time/cnn reports that a 50 y/o woman has an 8% chance of remarrying in her lifetime and since they buy the vast majority of the books, I think a tell all book by a dashing and entertaining single, middle aged author is a good business model. I'll give it some thought. But writing for money is still beneath me, hopefully not for too long.

to answer your questions/respond to your observations"

1) they are all crazy
2) most of them are crazy
3) all crazy
4) this is the most likely place to find a good one, but far from a guarantee, 50% crazy.
5) super crazy and delusional

The only normal ones I've met, including the current g/f who is the most normal I've met, were chance encounters in person.

While online profiles may look promising, it's mostly bad data, so any analysis is flawed. However I do know of a few people who have met their mate online, there are exceptions to every rule, then again someone wins the lottery every week or so.

The funniest observation I have is if you look at what they are all looking for, it is the same guy, regardless of their height, they want a guy six feet tall, who loves kids, walking on the beach (who does that?), never cheats, doesn't smoke, never watches sports or porn, barely drinks, makes lots of money, has no friends to compete with her, is educated, has all his hair and works out daily. I hate to break it to them but they are all fighting over the same guy and he's gay.

TG,

You left out the horse and cat data. How can he possibly make an informed decision without that information???

Wouldn't you also agree that most men are looking for the same woman: hot-looking, 20s-30s, no kids, financially independent, no baggage or emotional issues, lets the guy go out whenever, wherever and with whomever he wants (no questions asked), doesn't want to get married/no biological clock, etc.

And each of those women is being chased by 50 or more men -- many with lots of money.

Sounds like we all need to compromise, no? ;)

That almost goes without saying, peanut butter and jelly goes together like horse women and crazy. For those of you keeping score at home, Aectetia and I were old friends long before piggington, she knows first hand the percentage of women that I dated who were crazy and/or in financial distress and my earliest dating theorums, which includes the one horse rule, the three cats rule, the big dog that sleeps in the bed rule, the innapropriate for body frame implant rule, the three tattoo/piercing rule, the netheregion grooming rule and the thong rule. It seems so barbaric looking back, now that there have been so many more rules added, it's a wonder I'm not in competition for the same guy all the women on match are after.

Ca renter, absolutely not, as a member of the men club, I am privy to info you are not and that woman is overated, I met her, she's crazy.

For the guy who has everything, age appropriate, physical flaws, kids, a great mind, financial sense and no bio clock or need to get married or need to introduce or be introduced to eithers kids, the ability to be part of someone's world but not the center of it, has her own friends, finds your quirks endearing, that is what we are after. 20's, you've got to be kidding, trainees are banned, that is one of the earliest theorums.

I think you have a better perspective than most men, TG. You've earned your wisdom through trial and error...and dating the crazy horse women. ;)

Not sure the majority of single men in their 40s++ are looking for the same thing.

From what I've seen, there are two camps. One that is a bit more realistic and who are past the superficial stuff, and understand what makes a relationship an enjoyable experience. The other camp is comprised of the men who are looking for what I've described above.

This second camp seems to be the majority from what I've seen -- from the perspective of my single friends. Admittedly, I don't know too many single people these days, though; so it might be skewed data. ;)

TG, you are on friggin fire in this thread. If you don't write for money, please, please, please start a blog. With a blog, you are sure to earn zero money and get lots of compliments.

TG i am way too much of a scaredycat to get divorced, but if I did, I'd beseech you to take me on for a one to four hour paid consultation. In fact, maybe there's your business model. post-divorce men's advice.

TG: As a coach for youth football, I can tell you that the fields my son and his teammates play on are literally crawling with 35 - 45yo attractive single moms. On the teams I've coached, the divorce rate is well north of 50% and actually seems to increase as the kids get older.

I've spoken with quite a few of these women and I always have the sense that they feel they've been sold a bill of goods. Meaning, that if they play by the rules, they'll meet Prince Charming and he'll be a college educated, white collar professional making six figures a year with all of his teeth. He'll buy her a nice house in the 'burbs along with that cute Mercedes SLK (Yukon Denali, Volvo crossover, etc) she's always wanted and he'll make enough so she can stay home when the little ones start arriving.

Obviously, it doesn't work out that way, but you can see that magical thinking in everything from the RE market to personal relationships. Societally, we've been conditioned to believe these dreams come true and dreams die hard.

It's kind of sad, really. Most of the single moms I know are good people and are somewhat stunned to find themselves at this point in their lives and in this situation. There's a kind of desperation in their attitude and I've had several instances where "friendly" has morphed into something that wants to be a lot more involved. Six years ago, when I started coaching, it used to freak me out, but now I realize it's just part of the gig.

Don't forget rule #1 of internet dating - her picture is at least a few years old, and at least 20 pounds lighter.

Even if her house suffers 50% decline in value, she could still sell it and at least be debt-free. Like the stock market, sometimes you just have to cut your loss and move on.

She could move back in Queens or live in a cheaper area of Connecticut. I've done both (Flushing and New Haven) and it's not bad at all.

My sister and her husband both work in NYC (live in Queens) and make less than $200K combined. They have 3 kids (all about the same age of this woman's), paid off their mortgage in about 10 years and are living comfortably.

Earning $300K annually and broke is not acceptable in any city, even ones with higher cost-of-living than NYC (Tokyo, London, etc.). Things that she considers necessity are things that most of us can do without or can be trimmed down. It’s her choice to live in an affluent upper-class community. It’s her choice to have her kids feel the peer-pressure of much wealthier kids. It’s her choice to not want to leave a surrounding and lifestyle that she’s accustomed to.

No need to feel sorry for the choices she made and the predicament that she’s in right now. Most of us would gladly trade job (and pay) with her and would be able to find a much more cost-effective solution to carry on our lives without being broke.

On a positive note, at least she works.

I know plenty of older women who want to be kept ladies. Check out Georges in LJ

Well said, PKMAN.

And if she didn't work, the husband would have just been paying more alimony and child support.

And just maybe if she hadn't worked or worked part time and had focused on putting her husband and children first, the divorce wouldn't have happened. Just speculating. As a mother, I simply cannot understand the point of having children if this is what your life is like with them. Someone else does the bulk of the child care (and I'm sure always has since birth, infant, toddler, and preschool years) and you assist in taking them to activities and watching them perform sometimes. What's the point? Get a dog. Plus, when did she ever spend time with her husband throughout this daily schedule? Not surprising that it ended in divorce. Lots of women HAVE TO work just to make ends meet for their family but she wasn't one of them. I bet the husband's new wife pays a lot more attention to him and his needs. Again, just speculating....