Submitted by threadkiller on November 6, 2009 - 1:49pm.
Didn't really understand the article,over my head. Looking at history, there was a pretty good run up in the market from 1929-1933. Even though it hasn't been 4 years yet I believe we are due for a correction,so I put my 401k into money market.I believe this is the opposite of what the above article says I should do. It feels like "Vegas" to me,I hope I "guessed" right.
The gobbledygook basically means, "I think bonds are wandering around their peak price; make your investments so that you will profit as they fall."
There is no such thing as "cash" in my 401K, even the "stable value fund" is based on bonds, like all the rest of the stuff in it. Sigh.
I sense a large other shoe which will drop soon, but I believe "they" will make every effort to keep it from dropping before the Christmas shopping season. They can't sanely believe they can keep it from dropping forever.
I think all that technical analysis stuff is basically trying to study and then extrapolate from the historical tracks of the activities of a large group of humans (i.e. mass psychological dynamics) + some large trading computers (which were programmed by humans)... in other words, a very indirect way of reading the market tea leaves.
Better I think to try to put a finger on the pulse of current market psychology directly, and estimate where it'll go from there. But good luck with that. The actions of mass numbers of people seem fractal to me at best. To say nothing of the computers.
Didn't really understand the article,over my head. Looking at history, there was a pretty good run up in the market from 1929-1933. Even though it hasn't been 4 years yet I believe we are due for a correction,so I put my 401k into money market.I believe this is the opposite of what the above article says I should do. It feels like "Vegas" to me,I hope I "guessed" right.
The gobbledygook basically means, "I think bonds are wandering around their peak price; make your investments so that you will profit as they fall."
There is no such thing as "cash" in my 401K, even the "stable value fund" is based on bonds, like all the rest of the stuff in it. Sigh.
I sense a large other shoe which will drop soon, but I believe "they" will make every effort to keep it from dropping before the Christmas shopping season. They can't sanely believe they can keep it from dropping forever.
"Using technical analysis..."
In other words: "using methods proven as well as astrology or palm-reading."
In other words: "using methods proven as well as astrology or palm-reading."
Some experienced astrologers might find this offensive.
I think all that technical analysis stuff is basically trying to study and then extrapolate from the historical tracks of the activities of a large group of humans (i.e. mass psychological dynamics) + some large trading computers (which were programmed by humans)... in other words, a very indirect way of reading the market tea leaves.
Better I think to try to put a finger on the pulse of current market psychology directly, and estimate where it'll go from there. But good luck with that. The actions of mass numbers of people seem fractal to me at best. To say nothing of the computers.