Foreclosure Report

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Submitted by markzuber on December 19, 2007 - 5:30pm

Foreclosure filings -- the records filed when a house is in default or noticed for auction or repossessed by the lender -- increased in San Diego County by 113 percent between November 2006 and November 2007 to reach a total of 2,990 last month, according to data released this morning by RealtyTrac.

Monthly, however, the filings logged a 30 percent drop locally from October's 4,285 filings.

The state saw a 22 percent decline from October, while the country's filings were 10 percent fewer than October's. The firm's CEO, James Saccacio, said in a press release today the drop marks the first double-digit monthly decrease since April 2006.

Why "the filings logged a 30 percent drop locally"?

http://voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2007...

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One month does not make a
Submitted by SD Realtor on December 19, 2007 - 5:53pm.

One month does not make a trend.

A few thoughts though...

The 10 year treasury yield was pretty darn low in November and may have afforded some an opportunity to refinance. This includes those already in NOD status so that they would not have a NOT filed nor would they go to auction.

Many short sales actually started to move through the clogged pipelines in November. Why it took so long? I do not know. However again, a property in distress that has gets sold via short sale will then drop off the chart. So again, no NOT, no auction. Generally though in order to get a short sale approved the home must be a NOD.

Compared to October, November does have Thanksgiving. Not a huge excuse but hey a few days are a few days right?

Loan workouts by lenders may have actually started to occur in November, again, the 10 year was LOW and opportunity was there so people who needed a possible workout may have indeed achieved it at that time.

Individually, none of these factors makes up 30% compared to October. Collectively they don't as well however they do account for some of the drop off.

Look, much like a secular depreciating market, the foreclosure numbers will not increase monotonically every single month. Again it is the trend that is important. Yes November showed less then October but show me that behavior for the next 10 months where each month is less then the previous month and I will then take serious note.

SD Realtor