San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

DaisyD,

Would love to especially see the data for San Diego.

Please do!

daisy, love to take a look at the data. e-mail me at ocrenter at gmail dot com

Here you Go. It's a bit compressed, sorry. I will figure out a better way to send the data. I will start tracking San Diego . . .

COLUMNS ARE: DATE,NODs, AUCTIONS, REOs, FSBO, RESALE (w/agent)

DATE NODs Auction REO FSBO Resale
OC
1/29/2007 2826 658 1588 48 1476
1/30/2007 2818 646 1595 45 1551
1/31/2007 2804 674 1620 42 1533
2/1/2007 2783 697 1624 43 1557
2/2/2007 2949 703 1614 43 1572
2/7/2007 2825 726 1693 43 1536
2/8/2007 2803 700 1729 50 1553
2/9/2007 2789 683 1751 50 1547
2/10/2007 2779 677 1765 50 1547
2/12/2007 2750 719 1752 45 1547
2/13/2007 2751 726 1754 45 1558
2/14/2007 2861 726 1760 45 1572
2/15/2007 2789 736 1790 45 1588
2/16/2007 2880 725 1803 45 1622
2/18/2007 2871 720 1772 45 1639
2/20/2007 2818 760 1797 45 1636
2/21/2007 2830 758 1793 47 1628
2/22/2007 2976 761 1814 48 1633
2/23/2007 2976 758 1802 48 1637
2/24/2007 2830 753 1965 48 1646
2/26/2007 2775 740 1941 47 1646
2/27/2007 2729 747 1926 47 1652
2/28/2007 2721 761 1921 22 1619
3/1/2007 2696 786 1964 22 1594
3/2/2007 2678 774 1982 22 1571
3/3/2007 2645 796 1997 22 1613
3/5/2007 2645 794 1991 22 1614
3/6/2007 2628 819 1994 50 1592
3/7/2007 2809 843 2035 50 1592
3/8/2007 3219 848 2029 50 1585
3/9/2007 3920 850 2016 50 1613
3/11/2007 3906 881 2011 50 1634
3/12/2007 3916 887 2010 50 1634
3/13/2007 3855 874 2069 57 1714
3/14/2007 3877 873 2047 58 1714
3/14/2007 3866 899 2059 58 1714
3/15/2007 3864 897 2050 58 1712
3/16/2007 3743 870 2190 58 1706

DATE / LA
1/29/2007 11179 2469 5543 107 5875
1/30/2007 11079 2497 5637 108 5947
1/31/2007 11256 2438 5916 108 5984
2/1/2007 11188 2401 5969 108 6056
2/2/2007 11235 2420 5971 108 6235
2/7/2007 11463 2558 5900 108 6080
2/8/2007 11515 2475 6031 120 6138
2/9/2007 11565 2460 6065 120 6180
2/10/2007 11528 2460 6077 120 6208
2/12/2007 11611 2457 6106 102 6208
2/13/2007 11576 2509 6062 102 6152
2/14/2007 11553 2457 6169 102 6173
2/15/2007 11436 2600 6225 102 6219
2/16/2007 11594 2626 6247 102 6209
2/18/2007 11477 2595 6273 102 6203
2/20/2007 11419 2591 6458 102 6241
2/21/2007 11278 2584 6607 98 6178
2/22/2007 11254 2641 6777 98 6202
2/23/2007 10998 2639 6890 98 6225
2/24/2007 10716 2582 7195 98 6278
2/26/2007 10761 2540 7229 99 6278
2/27/2007 10642 2491 7334 99 6304
2/28/2007 10767 2537 7379 28 6339
3/1/2007 10783 2604 7680 29 6384
3/2/2007 10403 2549 7912 29 6384
3/3/2007 10543 2584 7637 28 6465
3/5/2007 10715 2516 7668 28 6467
3/6/2007 10706 2570 7725 99 6264
3/7/2007 10768 2572 7822 99 6275
3/8/2007 11678 2583 7816 99 6320
3/9/2007 13658 2586 7941 99 6444
3/11/2007 13743 2644 7825 99 6822
3/12/2007 13811 2709 7823 99 6822
3/13/2007 13633 2631 8015 111 7441
3/14/2007 13607 2589 8048 111 7441
3/14/2007 13755 2631 8081 111 7443
3/15/2007 13751 2635 8055 111 7421
3/16/2007 13642 2576 8183 111 7404

Today, right now, this is the data:

NODs - 5977
Auctions - 1180
REOs - 5147
FSBO - 76
Resale - 1557

I'll keep track . . .

RealtyTrac is almost like watching the stock market. L.A. O.C. and S.D. numbers increased just this afternoon.

Columns are: NODs; Auctions; REO; FSBO & Resale

OC
3/16/2007 4138 912 2188 58 1812

LA
3/16/2007 15190 2650 8174 111 7733

SD
3/16/2007 6554 1210 5150 76 1634

Good job. Don't need another way. For the uninitiated, here is a quick way to put it in Excel..

Select the block of text for LA or OC, paste into notepad, save as a text file (make note of location and filename)
Bring up Excel, select File->Open. Set the view in the 'chooser' to all files (*.*). Navigate to the file you saved and select and 'open' it. You will get a menu for import wizard.
First page of import wizard:
Select Delimited, start at row 1 File Origin should be 437:OEM US.
Hit Next

Select delimiters as 'tab' and 'space'(last one usually not checked). Make sure that you treat consecutive delimiters as one.
Hit Next

Treat first column as date, MDY..
Second through last should be general..
Hit Finish.. and play (the numbers should now be in Excel).

Having it in the single space separated format is great.. I can suck it into other programs as well as ones I write, without any problems. The only concern would be with longer data sets.. Maybe a web page on somewhere for the full sized /updated as we go form? One year will have 365 rows per area.

Update to the numbers this morning:

OC
3/17/2007 4182 935 2105 58 1829

LA
3/17/2007 15193 2674 8158 111 7763

SD
3/17/2007 6600 1195 5182 76 1661

There won't (shouldn't) be any more new numbers until maybe Monday afternoon. Sometimes I am surprised though that the numbers do change on Sunday. Maybe they are working lots of OT . . . at least someone is keeping their job in this market.

DaiseyD,

One more thing. Can you provide this data for San Diego by zipcode?

Here's info compiled from a link that Lindismith provided.

(To view, click the table, then scroll down below the table and select Original. Then you can see the detail and scroll
up/down, left/right.)

I basically want to track San Diego by ARM loans per zipcode and anything more detailed (ARM resets per current year per zipcode). It would be interesting to correlate the ARM resets per zipcode to the [NODs Auction REO FSBO Resale]
data you might be able to provide, especially if you can provide it by zipcode. Thanks!

(If anyone has comments on my the approach I'm recommending, pro or con, let me know)

SD defaults per 1000 by Zip

Can somebody explain how to read these data? for example how to interpret NOD? is it the total accumulated NODs as of today, or is it the total number of NODs since beginning of the year or month?

What is meant by AUCTION? same for REO etc.
Thanks for your help.

what is the definition of a foreclosure ? What is the definition for a default ?

paranoid and bob hope this helps....The definitions are different points of recordings made during the foreclosure process, not necessarly a step by step process. During the entire process the owner has chances to cure the default

NOD - Notice of Default. Technically you are default once you miss a payment. Usually the lender will not notify the trustee until you miss 2 or 3. Once that occurs a notice of default is recorded. This signals the beginning of the foreclosure process.

NOT - Notice of Trustee Sale - This is not in the stats that Dasiy posted. This is an official recording that the owner has been notified that the home is going to be sold at auction in a trustee sale.

REO - This event is that the auction occurred and the home did not get sold at auction and title is now held by the lender, not the trustee. Note that someone (any private party) could have purchased the home at auction but did not.

Also note that again, at any time during this process the owner could have cured the default... I don't know if the curing could happen on auction day, but I have heard of cases where the curing was done very close to auction. Foreclosure is a term that could be applied to the entire process I guess...Hope this helped guys...

Oh yeah as far as interpreting the numbers, like are they totals and if so how far back do they go, I am sure Daisy can clarify.

SD does a good job of explaining it. I will post the definitions RealtyTrac gives so we can hopefully understand it better. My graphs are rudimentary, but still reveals to me the numbers are increasing. IMHO pretty quick too.

I checked this morning and the numbers indeed changed again:

OC
3/18/2007 4215 944 2093 56 1829

LA
3/18/2007 15273 2724 8154 103 7763

SD
3/18/2007 6686 1257 5176 27 1637

Notice of Default (NOD)
“The foreclosure process begins when a borrower/owner defaults on loan payments (usually mortgage payments) and the lender files a public default notice, called a Notice of Default”.

“Auction (NTS, NFS):
If the loan is not reinstated by the end of the pre-foreclosure period, potential buyers can bid on the property at a public auction. Buyers often are required to pay in cash at the auction and may not have much time to research the title and condition of the property beforehand; however, a public auction often offers some of the best bargains and avoids the unpredictability of dealing directly with the borrower/owner.”

“Bank-owned (REO):
If the lender takes ownership of the property, either through an agreement with the owner during pre-foreclosure or at the public auction, the lender will usually want to re-sell the property to recover the unpaid loan amount. The lender will then typically clear the title and perform needed maintenance and repair; however, the potential bargain for these REO homes is typically less than a pre-foreclosure or auction property. Bank foreclosures can become government foreclosures if the loan is backed by a government agency such as the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) or the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). In that case the government agency would be responsible for selling the property.”

Timeline of Stages:
Pre-Lien – 30 days
Lien – 30 days
Notice of Default – 90 days
Notice of Sale – 21-25 days
Trustee’s Sale – if unsold to REO
__________________________________________________________

If I am understanding my chart and RealtyTrac's data, the NODs are ever changing as new people go into default and others get their property out of default as SD explains -- but the numbers are still really high and keep climbing.

The Auction properties are properties where there is an auction date set and the date/time/location is published for the auction/sale.

The Bank Owned (REO) properties are the properties that actually went to auction and was not purchased by the homeowner or any other buyer/investor.

All of these numbers fluctuate and I can guess why they do, but I'm not an expert in it. I suspect that the NOD numbers change as people go into default and get their property out of default. The Auctions figure is about the same as the NODs. The bank owned fluctuates due to pieces actually being sold at auction or somehow the bank does something to get it off their books ???

Still learning all this myself.

DaisyD

Daisy you nailed it! Very good explanation. As you see due to the rotation of NODs it may be best to try to simply capture months ya know what I mean? Like how many NODs were reported in Jan of 07, Feb of 07 etc... Either way it is hard posting on going stats so my hat is off to you for doing so. I tried to do that for active/pendings as well as NODs/NOTs/REOs but it just go to burdensome.

*****

Yeah it is amazing how late in the process a people can cure the defaults. Some people go into default, then cure it, then go in again...

No there is no chance that the bank can make a property mysteriously disappear off the books. If a property makes it to auction, then it either sells or becomes REO no middle ground. (at least that I know of which is not much)

Anyways typically the REOs will be alot lower the NODs due to cures... Now how much of the default is "cured" is an interesting question. I just wonder as things deteriorate how much these lenders will let people stretch...

SD Realtor

This morning's numbers:

OC
3/19/2007 4281 944 2089 56 1829

LA
3/19/2007 15250 2758 8127 103 7764

SD
3/19/2007 6846 1257 5174 27 1637

In San Diego, before April 10th (the due date of property tax's second installment), people facing NOD problems without impound accounts would be sleepless thinking which one to pay first - tax or mortgage. For sure, NODs would skyrocket again after this date.

Good observation! We'll have to see what happens.

Thanks for the data Daisy, I'm interested in the OC/LA ones.

One quick question, what is the resale (w/agent) column? Is that from MLS, bank REO for sale via agent, or something else?

The Resale are properties listed with an agent and thus on the MLS.

This morning's numbers follow. It will probably change by the end of the day:

OC
3/20/2007 4269 938 2106 56 1828

LA
3/20/2007 15138 2665 8318 103 7766

SD
3/20/2007 6823 1217 5218 27 1637

Since first posting data about SD I noted there were 76 FSBO properties, it has been hovering at 27 the last couple of days so I'm inclined to think that might have been a typing error on my part.

DD

The Resale are properties listed with an agent and thus on the MLS

What is their relationship to the foreclosure information though? That's the part I don't understand. OC inventory is way higher than 1828 listings.

The 1828 number is the number of listings (either on the MLS or otherwise) listed with an agent where the agent purposely put it on RealtyTrac. RealtyTrac does not connect to the MLS, so yes, the MLS numbers for OC/LA/SD are much higher.

There isn't any real relation to the foreclosure data for the FSBO or Resale numbers. Just keeping track of it to see how many people start putting their homes on the market so I can keep an eye on inventory and watch those that are trying to salvage any wealth.

I also track ZipRealty, but I'm sure that any realtor who has access to the MLS can tell that data immediately. I, as a non-realtor, do not. It is rudimentary, but I'm trying to get some factual info.

This morning's numbers. Remember they can change (go up) by the end of the day:

OC
3/21/2007 4289 958 2123 56 1828

LA
3/21/2007 15284 2773 8399 103 7766

SD
3/21/2007 6711 1228 5310 27 1637

Today's numbers:

OC
3/22/2007 4389 935 2136 23 1794

LA
3/22/2007 15309 2687 8352 30 7737

SD
3/22/2007 6706 1203 5269 12 1648

I don't know why I find this interesting, but all the FSBO properties in the 3 different counties dropped substantially. I guess they decided to take their property off the market? Did they all sell ?? There is a way to tell in RealtyTrac the addresses of these properties, but I'm just not that interested.

Today's Numbers:

OC
3/23/2007 4364 935 2160 23 1800

LA
3/23/2007 15236 2686 8421 31 7756

SD
3/23/2007 6675 1141 5307 12 1632

Are any of you making meaningful sense out of this data? If not, I'll stop.

DD

Daisy
Its good data but two comments. First, RE is a slow moving ship and weekly reports are more than adequate. Second, presentation is everything and a graphical approach would be much better. If that is beyond your technical abilities (it is past mine!) a narrative comparing to the prior week would be great.

Oh my word! I'd much rather rely on Excel's spreadsheets than I would my interpretation of the data. That would really screw everybody up.

I'll report once a week.

DD

This morning's numbers:

OC
3/29/2007 4318 1040 2204 57 1813

LA
3/29/2007 15696 2907 8626 108 7922

SD
3/29/2007 6395 1134 5402 11 1624

Well, I wasn't going to report for a few more days but for some reason the Resale properties in RealtyTrac (properties listed by agents) jumped in the three counties (Orange/LA/San Diego). Hmmm. Maybe a lot of people are watching RealtyTrac and the agents believe they will get more exposure? Just sharing information.

OC
4/3/2007 4422 1084 2217 62 2383

LA
4/3/2007 16033 2928 8532 119 9180

SD
4/3/2007 6165 1178 5419 11 1730

FYI,
I get weekly NOD reports from my title company and the list is usually about 70 pages long (4 proeprties/page). This week it was only 40 pages long. I'll keep you posted as to what happens next.

This morning's figures:

OC
4/13/2007 4463 1083 2515 62 2423

LA
4/13/2007 16099 2780 9071 115 9289

SD
4/13/2007 5658 1070 5745 11 1721