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Submitted by SD Realtor on June 24, 2008 - 10:36pm

Hey TG -

I recall before crashing last night you wrote a post and I could not find it tonite to respond to. I think you were discussing the frustration of not seeing REO properties hit the market after tracking them through the foreclosure process.

So I have always been quite skeptical regarding banks holding back properties. I think that it is not out of the realm of possibility ESPECIALLY in heavily distressed markets such as your neck of the woods. A few things I would advise you to verify....

- Make sure that the home actually has gone to trustee sale. As you know it is super easy to get a delay on a trustee sale. All the seller has to do is bring an offer in with his short sale package.

- If it does go to trustee sale make sure that it went back to the bank. As we see more and more distress it will not surprise me at all to see more investors purchase property at the trustee sale especially if they pencil out.

- I assume you have diligently checked the 2 points above and now you can come to me and go look, there are all these properties that ARE owned by the bank and NOT on the market. First off, they may be owned by the lender but not on the market yet. I have seen anywhere from 3 - 9 weeks for an REO to hit the market. Also you may not see the home on the MLS but there may be a sign out. That means the home has at least been listed with a broker but not priced yet.

*******

Now by the same token I will admit something seems off... I mean, if the foreclosureforum numbers are correct we should be seeing at least 1000 homes hitting the market each month based on the number of trustee sales. I don't believe we are seeing that.

So yes, something is not adding up.

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For a minute I thought you
Submitted by temeculaguy on June 25, 2008 - 12:02am.

For a minute I thought you were going to reference the post I made on the geography poll regarding India. I was half asleep but remembered it was funny and wanted to reread it, yet it was gone from the top ten and I couldn't find it either.

Yes I was on a rant, in fact tonight I checked it and 20 more nots were added to go back to the bank this week, yet only two or three new listings in the last two days. I have checked, but not on all of them so you may be right, there might be people delaying with short packages but those should end up listed at least. Could they be going to private investors without hitting the market, maybe some but not the volume I'm missing. I don't believe in voluntary holdbacks either, it's probably just overworked REO divisions. I'll give it a few more weeks to come through, as sales slow and rates rise the reo folks should catch up. I just need more volume of must sells, inventory is falling, multiple offers are increasing, I refuse to believe that I may be wrong about this whole reverse flipping, that all the Fb's are finding way to keep their houses, it is just so much easier to subscribe to the evil conspiracy theory.

Another part of that rant was the out of town (L.A. and O.C.) realtors with heavy accents (that is a gift, I can barely understand anything they say and it's not english or spanish). Why would banks list with out of town realtors who are clueless about an area and even more clueless about R/E in general. It isn't just a few examples, it's fairly common. In some cases I may choose to play lowball with the listing agent (waiting hawk's tactic revisited), we both understand the situation, they are aware of certain comps and addresses when I quote them and it's just easier to cut the crap and not play "post bubble 101." Are those agents charging so much less that the banks won't go local. The last guy I talked to, Muhammad Al something or other, turned out to be a college student working under a broker who hadn't a clue about anything. Nice kid, through our conversations at least I taught him what prop 13 was about and how property taxes are calculated. I also let him in on the whole home owners association fees thing and how gated communities are required to pave their own roads and pay their own streetlights, that is why a gate adds $100 a month because taxes wont pay for what the public cannot enjoy. He was pretty happy learning that some streets are private, how taxes are figured and how hoa's manage certain things and how as a real estate professional these tidbits of information may come in handy someday. I lost him when i tried to convince him that the multicultuaral style of play invading the NBA is a good thing even if Pao, Sasha, Vlade, Mbenga and Turiaf couldn't get it together against the celts. I explained that the rich history of certain rivalries and the power of fans such as those at the garden can totally change the game, I went on with some complaints about the officiating but I lost him pretty much after the third word I spoke, so i decided to not even discuss the complexities of the Patriots and spygate. If school is in session, it's time to learn, but at least he picked up on the real estate taxes concept and how that affects marketability. But I digress.

From OC Renter's blog last
Submitted by Ex-SD on June 25, 2008 - 3:40am.

From OC Renter's blog last Sunday:

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/...

just emphasizing how big this
Submitted by ocrenter on June 25, 2008 - 5:15am.

just emphasizing how big this phantom inventory really is, here's a condo complex in Chula Vista, total of 8 homes on the MLS:

for sale inventoryfor sale inventory

here's the RealtyTrac map showing the amount of distressed properties (the condo complex is circled):

reo inventoryreo inventory

(click on image for clearer view)

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/...

ForeclosureRadar.com and
Submitted by sddreaming on June 25, 2008 - 9:25am.

ForeclosureRadar.com and RealtyTrac provide the name and address of the lender and Trustee. Is it possible to contact them directly even though the properties are not listed on the MLS? Do you know anyone who has done this successfully? (like the lender actually responded)

Ex-Sd, thanks for the link
Submitted by temeculaguy on June 25, 2008 - 1:11pm.

Ex-Sd, thanks for the link and oc, thanks for the content. It makes sense and is consistent with what I see. It's still frustrating but easier to cope with now that you have shown evidence of a trend. I can plan for and anticipate trends, I hate mysteries especially those that run counter to logic.