San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Bugs: More and more articles are appearing about price drops in supposedly "impervious" markets like SF and Manhattan. Even as little as six months ago, these two markets were being used to illustrate the principle that some markets would remain immune, unlike the Murrietas and Chula Vistas and Riversides.

A poster who is very knowledgeable about banking (I think it was Davelj) made the very astute observation that it is not about a liquidity crunch, it is about a bad asset crunch. This mess is not confined to just sub-prime, but is spreading into Alt-A and prime as well.

The prime locations might be the last to get hit, but they will get hit, too. And while a single listing does not a trend make, all trends start somewhere.

There are only so many wealthy people, so many foreign buyers, so many $300K+ households, etc... Sooner or later the supply is bound to outstrip them in number, and sellers will have to deal with us ordinary schlubs if they want to sell their houses at all.

Other than the "ultra-high end" of the housing market, NO ONE will be immune from the bubble bursting. Anyone who thinks that just because they're in the better parts of north county, they won't be affected, is going to get a strong dose of reality over the next 4-plus years. If they don't have to sell and can stay employed and afford the home that they bought (and it doesn't have three mortgages and a heloc) will be just fine over the very long haul (10-plus years). Those who must sell are going to be in for a world of hurt.
Nobody knows just how low prices will go before they settle on the bottom or exactly how long they will sit on the bottom but how many people are going to be eager to mortgage themselves to the hilt for that big, expensive McMansion after watching this current mess unravel?

Ex-SD: Certain homebuilders are already making the move to smaller homes. Those monolithic 4,000sf monsters will probably go the way of the dodo. Too expensive to maintain for one thing. Can you imagine cooling a 4,000sf home through a Temecula summer?

I think even the ultra-high end will feel something of a pinch as well. There are homes fronting the SF Bay that are knocking fairly significant chunks off of their asking price. The house Burt Reynolds owns in Florida was just reduced in price by a large amount as well.

"Sooner or later the supply is bound to outstrip them in number, and sellers will have to deal with us ordinary schlubs if they want to sell their houses at all."

I love this line.

Sums it up to a freakin T.

I was scanning the Point Loma Inventory today.
The last line of a MLS supplement gave me a chuckle.

... or taking in some fresh air while BBQing in your child-safe fenced backyard. "Come live the fairytale."

Freudian slip?

Wow, it's about time. I still remember moving to San Diego in 2001 and renting on the beach in Encinitas. I had never owned a home but was starting to look and I thought "if only i could find that fixer in a good part of town"...early in 2002 I crossed the railroad tracks in Encinitas and started looking behind Scripps Hospital. I found a place that looked like it was out of a Troma Horror movie. No yard, just dirt, original 1954 paint job on a box that was barely standing. I grab the flyer, and read that it's going for 700k. I was astonished. Obviously I have come to realize that I was totally in the dark regarding property values. Would be great to see those come down a bit...although i doubt that area will ever be down in my price range.

Hey Bugs,

Is the property on Puebla? If it is the owners are/were my neighbors and I know some of the back story. I also know the builder/architech (tough not well)

Just curious

Like I said, I'm not at liberty to get into detail on this one, but no, I'm not talking about the property on Puebla.

If you want to post it up we can take a look at it, though.

I believe Puebla is considered Leucadia, at least by the locals and there used to be gang activity there in the 80's.

Sorry Bug, I did not notice your disclaimer. This is house I was referring to in my neighborhood

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zp...

I think the asking price was 2.1M a month ago, have not checked recently.

Here's a house with an acre lot west of I-5 in Encinitas for $819k. Nice ocean view. Looks like a flipper bought it in Nov. for $729k and is trying to turn a quick profit. Before that some poor schmuck bought it for $1.1M.

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/nsd/rfs/5...

That one on Eolus has easy access to the freeway. It's about 50 yards away.

I happened to drive by that one the other day. I thought it was gutted. It has a "bank owned" sign out in front of it.

MadeinTaiwan - I have been keeping my eye on Puebla (along with about 10 other homes) and was wondering what the deal was with it. What do you know? The pictures are beautiful, and the location in Leucadia is decent, although a bit close to the 5.

Bugs,
Stop posting about Encinitas being so affordable. I am sure you will all love Bonita much better anyway. That why it is called beautiful. And yes to the earlier post, Encinitas is full of gangs and pedophiles. Just check meganslaw.com and you will see.
P.S. Bugs, good business people don't show their cards before the deal is done. I hope your partner does not know you post all your potential deals on public blogs.

Duck,
If the one on Eolus is that old 1920's number, it is a dump. I did a walk though on that. The guy who owned it was totally leveraged and he was trying to dump it not long after he bought it. It is a full teardown, even though the owner tried to improve it, but it was full weekend warrior stuff. Also, the way the hill slopes up to the house, it sounds like the freeway is actually going though the kitchen, but in early 05 it seemed like Hearst castle to me. I think it was listed for like 1.4 or something at the time. Big property though and you can do another unit on it, but would have to do major sewer stuff, but the rumor was that the city was going to run a sewer line on Orpheus so you could connect. As you know, it is almost all septic up there or leech fields.

MP,

You do know that I'm an appraiser, right? The reason I can't comment on specifics is because it would be unethical for me to do so.

Bugs at first I thought the property was Phoebe but it didn't fit your comments exactly. Is the property active or is it pending?

If you don't want to give further hints I understand.

SD Realtor

I think the Eolus one was a flipper who thought adding granite, new cabinets and tile floors increased the value by $300,000. When people talk about certain homes selling for 30% or 50% less than 3 years ago it's usually because some idiot payed 50% too much 3 years ago. This is especially true where the homes are not in a newer tract and comps are more difficult to match.