San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Possibly a few percent. You're asking how much less pricing will be 6-8 months from now. The answer to that is that the amount of change during that time period will be about 70% of the rate of annual change, which in those areas hasn't (yet) been that much.

Pricing doesn't change that quickly, especially on a declining trend. It will just bleed out a little.

I'd tell you that if your money matters to you more than the intangible benefits of owning a home then you shouldn't buy at all in 2008, and probably not in 2009.

Nobody knows.

Bugs made a good post and I agree with him. On your questions, it is a tough call maicde... I know of a few people who are really looking hard for places up in LCV and Encinitas. The nicer places that each of them has wanted seem to get snapped up. There have been some reductions and some decent deals but not on the properties that each of these people has been looking for. There is a pretty substantial variations on the housing quality from high end stuff in La Costa to older stock in Encinitas. If you could be a little more specific it would help. I think that during the spring things will hold off dropping much as that is the season of strongest activity (and denial) so you may see some reductions there but I think it will not be until summertime and then later to see some stronger moves. Also sdr and Jim are really expert in this submarket.

SD Realtor

a 4000 sq ft home on a cul de sac with a pool/spa on a large lot just closed for 995K in la Costa valley as an REO. It sold a couple years back for about $1.4M. This sale has the ability to reset the market levels there. Whether it will is anyone's guess. My guess is that you can expect [prices to be about 5% lower than they currently are.

Welcome, and I hope you are another Browns/Buckeyes fan we could always use more. I moved to Encinitas from NE Ohio in 2005. My wife is still mad at me. She didn't even want to go back and visit over the holidays for fear jealousy would kick in, as she terribly misses the old huge house on 3 acres.

Me I don't care, my house is small and crappy but it's all we could afford (rent I mean).

An area I'd consider for a family is the Village Park area or better yet, the neighborhoods east of El Camino Real from Manchester on up. The reason I say that is you get good bang for your buck, good neighborhoods, etc. Many parts of Village Park allow you to walk to do some of your shopping, though it's a bit of a stroll. In the Cardiff area you can sometimes pick up a nice rental in Park Place which is very family oriented.

The schools are excellent, however this year my kids transfered to a private school (where mom teaches). They went to Cardiff Schools for two years and due to Little League and getting to know a lot of kids, they fit in almost instantly. I didn't really see any awkward transition from Ohio.

My wife's had a harder time getting close to anyone and having any really good friends out here. It just seems like people are so busy running their kids from this lesson to that lesson, to this practice to this game, that people in our circle don't hang out and socialize as much. However I don't cast a broad brush because other circles might be totally different, but we are knee deep in kids activities, travel ball, guitar, etc.

Thank you, Bugs. I agree with your advice on waiting until at least 2009. We're not in any hurry to relocate at this point due to the housing prices still being high. I can't see us relocating to Encinitas (S.CA) at this time and renting because logistically speaking, we have way too much stuff to move and then have to re-move it again. I'm hoping that prices do come down to a decent level, something that's not two or three times the price of what it was several years ago. I've been following houses in Encinitas on Zillow and while it seems that they've gone done recently, it looks like prices were picking up a bit too...just wondering what was happening out there.

Thank you very much for your good advice.:)

I agree, Rustico - no one truly knows exactly how much and when.:)

Thank you kindly, SD Realtor. We can most definitely wait for the stronger moves as you mentioned as we are comfortable here, are not hurting to get into a home and such. I realize that we're not going to get a house with a lot of land or anything like that as land is at a premium there. We would be looking for a 4 bedroom house in an established neighborhood; something that has a backyard for the kids to play in, possibly plant a small garden, even if in containers, have a patio or deck, and some a bit of privacy. I believe that all of that will be at a premium as far as costs are concerned. I know for sure that we're not looking for new allotments with monthly fees and/or restrictive rules. As far as jobs, my husband is a pharmacist, I am a former accountant, own my own business which is operated from home. Looking for good schools, possibly Catholic schools. Two oldest kids will be graduating from college, younger kids are in high school, middle school, and elementary school. Waiting it out another several years is definitely doable as long as I don't lose my mind with the grey and cold winters. It wasn't so bad today as some sun actually peaked out! :) Thank you again for your advice, as always.:)

sdrealtor: Was the 1.4M to 995K in the Davidson section of La Costa Valley? Any more details? I live in LCV and have been trying to follow closely what is going on, but missed this one....

Any perspective you can share would be helpful.

Hi there, Cardiffbaseball.:) Thank you for typing such a informative and very helpful post. Our families sound very similiar; we are definitely a baseball family having 5 boys and 2 girls (ages 23 to age 6). My oldest son who will be 24 soon will be graduating with a degree in Education (Chemistry/Biology) in May. Teaching jobs in NE OH are pretty tight (I noticed that you said that your wife is a teacher). My second oldest is in Mexico right now on a Study Abroad program; his is majoring in Spanish. Our younger kids are in Catholic school and the high-schooler is at a public high school. Yes, we are definitely Buckeye fans! :) My husband and the kids are Cleveland Indians mega-fans as well as fans of the Cleveland Browns. :)

Your poor wife; I feel for her. I really hope that as time passes, she gets to know the parents better and feels like she belongs instead of feeling like she's looking on the outside in. Perhaps, with her job in teaching, she will get to know the parents better, and things will begin to fall into place for her. I think that women need that social interaction and acceptance and the feeling of fitting in. We moved to our current town 16 years ago and I'm just now feeling like I belong here somewhat. We moved about 10 minutes from where both hubby and I grew up and we still kind of went through the same thing. I think people today are just very busy with life and unless you grew up in an area and have deep-rooted friendships as well as family there, it just takes a while to feel like you belong there. Where did you move from, if I may ask? We're located about 20 miles south of Akron, OH (NE OH).

Glad that your kids are fitting in and had a smooth adjustment and transition to their new home and area. That is very important. Glad to hear about the Little League and that your kids are enjoying that as well as the other sports you mentioned, although I'm not sure what "travel ball" is?? Is that soccer? Please excuse my ignorance as it pertains to sports.:)

Thank you for your recommendations of areas to look at and research. I will most definitely do that. Hey, as for living in a small house, to me, as long as you have your family there with you, you have everything. Hopefully, as the prices reach some sort of equilibrium, new opportunities will open up as far as housing choices go.

Thank you, kind Piggingtons. I really enjoy reading your posts. Thank you for ALL of your various posts and advice. It is very much appreciated. I've learned much for all of you over the last year or so. Happy 2008 to all of you.:)

We are from the Warren area, actually out between Youngstown and Warren.

By travel ball, I meant baseball, once we moved out here where you can play year around the kids totally stopped playing soccer. Essentially outside of a month or a couple of weeks here or there, we pretty much stick to baseball non-stop and mix in some rec pop warner or basketball. One thing is the kids have to pick up there game here, compared to back in Ohio....

St. Johns in Encinitas seems to be really nice. And of course now that Cathedral Catholic is CV it's much easier to attend a parochial HS without an oppressive drive to La Jolla or San Diego.

As a sport junkie I look for Cathedral Catholic to be a sports powerhouse in a few years as they can start drawing them in from up the 5 to Oceanside and up the 15 to Escondido.

If your husband is a big Browns fan, Brian Sipe is the head football coach at Santa Fe Christian, which actually does still draw in some catholic families.

If you were on city-data I might remember this all sounds familiar. Piggs are more more about housing data than that site, but it's good to get a wide array of opinions. I haven't been out there on city-data in a couple of months.

KHOv Arbor Heights on Vista Higuera. BTW, there isnt one house currently in escrow in LCV though inventory is also about average with 15 on the market. It will be interesting to see what happens in a couple months when the relos come/head out.

Hi there CardiffBaseball, yes, I do remember your post on City Data; yes, now I remember you mentioning Warren and Youngstown.:) Thank you again for your help on everything. I will most definitely do my homework and continue learning and researching before making such a huge move. Yes, Brian Sipe, I remember him from the Browns; will tell my husband about that. Thank you also for clarifying the "travel ball" - LOL.:) So baseball is played almost year round there? I can see how the boys would have to really have some competition out there as here they are playing from about end of March through June, and until about first week of August if they made the All-Star team. That is an interesting tidbit and good to know.

I wish you and your whole family a very happy and abundant new year 2008. It's been very nice conversing with you and everyone on this board; thank you all. Good night to all.:)

My husband and I are looking for a house in the Encinitas area as well and I have been diligently following the market for the past 1.5 years. We are looking for a sfr and have really seen some decent declines in village park/ park place area.

When we started looking we could not find a sfr in village park/ cambria etc under 600k. Now there are REO's and short sales in the 500's. We definitely do not care if its redone, we just see ourselves having kids in less than 2 years and don't want to have to move from a condo to a larger place. Good luck and keep saving, that is what we are doing. It is tough though b/c we intend to move to another rental the end of May when our lease is up. Hopefully we can find something decent to possibly be in for another 2 years!

In terms of schools, I think that the public schools are pretty good in this area. My husband is a high school teacher in the San Dieguito School District and LOVES it and his students

Hawk
There was a 3br/2ba 1300 sq ft single level in Village park that went on the market for 499K. It sold pretty quickly but will be the first eal sfr sale in 92024 under 500K in about 3 years.

sdr

Encinitas sucks. I am sure you would enjoy Chula Vista or Encanto much better.

sdr:
I DID see that 499k! Hopefully we will see more of those in the near future. We really like certain areas of Village Park. There seems to be a lot of inventory sitting right now. I am surprised that Summerhill has not gone down that much, I like that area, but I think a better deal will be had with a sfr fixer in Village Park.

Hawk,
Personally I would take Summerhill over VP but thats just me. In Summerhill you get more sq footage, can get a decent sized yard, a better more stable neighborhood, better elementary (Flora Vista vs Parkdale Lane) and still have low hoa fees. Some SH lots even have nice views also. As a 1st time buyer you will find a VP home to be a money pit. When prices were rising quickly it was easy to refi and pull some cash out to upgrade the home. Dont plan on doing that this time around. I'd take 2000 sq ft in SH for less money than 1300sq ft in VP every time.

sdr

sdr do you view vp homes to be money pits simply due to aging compared to SH?

SD Realtor

sdr:
I would also take a Summerhill home for less money as well, but I do not see them going down yet to what we could afford. There are definitely nicer parts of VP than others, I agree.

I have only been inside the Summerhill model that has two bedrooms upstairs and an office down (approx 1600 sq ft) and know it would be too small for us in the long run. The homeowners seemed cramped with two kids there. I have not personally toured the larger models but suspect they would be perfect if the price eventually comes down to what we can afford.

I do like larger yards which are a plus in some of the older places.

The VP condos have really gone down though. We looked 1.5 years ago and the 3/ 2.5 models were listing for 499k and they are definitely not selling for close to that now. We are trying to wait for a sfr though.

2 years of saving should put us in a pretty good situation I hope, but then we will want to start a family and not be over-mortgaged.

As a follow-up, 2000 sq ft summerhill comparitively priced to an sfr in VP would definitely be preferable if the price came down enough, I agree, will it do so is the question?

Hey there, Hawk - wishing you and your husband the very best in 2008 and finding a house that suits you in the near future.:) Glad that your husband is enjoying teaching in the San Diegito School District. That is probably the major reason why we're looking in that area in specific. :)

The quality of construction in the older VP homes is pretty weak. Bathrooms are tiny and the neighborhoods have more riff raff than Summerhill. I also believe in getting more sq ft for the money even though they are attached.

If you had a couple kids and got stuck in a home longer than you wanted what would you rather be in. A smaller detached or a bigger attached home.

BTW, The 1745 SH floorplan is really nice also. It has 3 BR's up and a great kitchen set up with a breakfast nook and private patio in front.

What technically distinguishes Summerhill from VP. Not being around that part of Encinitas as much except to go in and out for baseball at Park Dale E, and football at Diegueno, I tend to lump the whole thing as VP. I see a bunch of streets with Summerhill names, is just that set of streets, or is there a larger area that is considered Summerhill.

Summerhill is a community of attached homes that are PUD's not condos. This means you own your half of the structure and the land it sits on. One of the nice things about it is that is is entirely surrounded by SFR neighborhoods (Fieldstone and Summercreek). These homes were mostly built in the mid 80's. They are located adjacent to Diegueno Jr High and attend Flora Vista elem.

VP is typically all the homes south of mountain vista but north of encinitas blvd with the exception of Villanitas which are the homes just east of the Ralphs Shopping Center and can only be accessed off Encinitas Blvd. Most of VP was built in the 70's. They attend parkdale lane and much of the area includes condos and even some apartment rental communities.

While we are on the topic of Buckeye fans, that is where I went to college. Unfortunately that's all I can contribute to this conversation.

If we take the general square (I know that isn't the shape) of El Camino Real, to leucadia, to RSF and back to Encinitas Blvd, how many distinct neighborhoods are back there. Also the area south of Encinitas Blvd, east of El Camino seems big, as well.

Thanks for explaining the Summerhill/VP area sdrealtor. I never knew the difference either. What is the area North of Mountain Vista called with sfh's?

What are some of the street names for Summerhill, I am still not sure exactly where it is? Sounds worth checking out. Thanks!