San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

How much longer are you going to paper trade?

John

One more comment for those unfortunate souls who held long stock/mutual funds positions all the way down about this bear market -45%. (*ouch*)

I predict this Fool's Rally will give you YOUR LAST CHANCE to dump those long positions at higher prices, recovering some of your losses.

If you miss this opportunity to sell your longs (at say S&P500=1,100), you will soon find yourself somewhere in 2009, with the S&P500 sitting at about 600 and you'll then be far more stunned at how beaten up your 401K will be.

Last chance ?

EVER ?

I doubt that.

Last chance for 6-18 months, maybe.

>>Last chance for 6-18 months, maybe.

OK, of course, I agree with that. However, it remains an open question WHAT will the markets do after they hit say S&P500 = 600 or 700 in 2009?

I'm not willing to bank on that initiating a big bull market.

At that point with stocks bottoming in 2009, I'm going long GOLD, and OIL, and Chinese stocks.

In the words of a wise contributor to these forums (nickname: "peterb")...paraphrasing:

"The real money is going to be made on the next leg down!"

I agree with that sentiment.

Dude. You haven't been paying attention to what the chinese government has been saying in the euro-asian economic summit two weeks ago, have you?

http://piggington.com/ot_well_the_weathe...

Even the street merchants are telling you that things have slowed down quite a bit. And yes plenty of friends that own export businesses are saying the same thing.

I have to jump in at this time as the true relief rally looks to be now underway. Dow may get near 11000. I am partial to EEV towards the top as I think the Chinese govt is full of complete shiite about their growth numbers. But many of the ultra shorts are starting to look mighty tastey at this point.
If the market is still bullish after all the news that comes out this week...unemployment and other earnings reports, then I think this rally is going to really crank. Oh, the short opportinities abound!! Licking my chops big time over this one!!!

Lol... I wouldn't say complete. But I was say a bit too optimistic imho. Time will tell though. I'd like to see folks buy into the chinese stock market right now. Or worse, buy into their real estate markets right now. That will be quite entertaining to watch.

Everybody on here should give a read to this:

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index...

Yes, I'm convinced: in retrospect I now see there is likely more downside to the Chinese stock market.

I expect China stocks will see a bit of a rally off this US stock rally, then I'll dump my FXI (ISHARES TR FTSE XINHUA HK CHINA 25 INDEX FD), which by the way, I'm only down 3.3% on.

I just returned from ten days in China. This weekend I fly back for another MONTH in China. Mostly I'm in Southern China, where the economy is REALLY BAD in that area, and getting worse.

Owners of major and smaller factories are stealing the last remaining funds from their businesses, selling equipment, and then running away in the middle of the night from their South China factories (that have become insolvent).

Yes, I've heard the "midnight run" story a few times lately regarding the Chinese factories. I guess there's a heavy fine for folding up shop. Something about giving up your organs prematurely that upsets many people.

Strange that the long end of the Treasury curve rallied strongly with equities today. What does the bond market know that the stock market doesn't?

Personally I don’t know about going long Oil or Gold,

Don’t know how well Oil will hold up to cars averaging 100 mile per gal (maybe by 2012) or 35 miles per gal now if need be. And Truck fleets running on LNG if they really needed to.

Gold, I just never got gold, personally I just don’t have much use for it, and my wife and I already have our rings …

As always Just my opinion .

I always thought in an deflation, everything comes down, including gold.

What do I know, though.

stockstradr -

Do you really think this rally will take us to 1200 on the spx? Where do you see the dow? Also, have been scratching my head as to why this market has come so far so fast. At this rate, we should have an opportunity to short next week. Traders are presuming that the market is so undervalued but that is only true if earnings hold. What do you trade? SDS? Where do you see the financials short term?
thx

Herewego,

Bond market looks long term and sees recession. Stock market is just being manipliated short term to allow dumping of stocks at higher prices.

John

The verdict is still out on Gold, heard a great interview with Barry Ritholtz which you can listen to here

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fs...

if you don't have mp3 you can chose what you do have on this page

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

They talk about gold towards the end of the interview. Anyway Ritholtz points out that these hedge funds are getting ready to come undone and many of them had large positions in gold, so there is a possibility you could see panic selling in gold to below market fundamentals, that along with gold goes down in what looks to be a deflation scenario. Now the question is down the road what are the unintended consequences of all this govt interaction in the markets and non stop printing presses of money. Currency crisis?? A tsunami of inflation?? IMO that's what you need to be paying attention to. I know that Rich has touched base on this subject and so have others about investing in gold mines. With the exception of today these stocks have just been hammered and the discrepancy between the price of gold the gold mining stocks is totally out of whack. Either the price of gold has to come way down or these miners have to rally and rally big. If that is the case the gold mines are the safer play here.

Nice Thanks LA_renter,

One thing I will add here is that if Gold ever does reach 3000 per ounce like some have said,
I will flip my boss the bird, and strap a dredge to my back and head north.

Just kidding,,,

You are probably right, but perhaps not for the reasons you think.

There will less industrial demand for gold in a high unemployment, deflationary environment. Additionally, there will be less speculative demand as many people will be spending what little money they have on the basics.

Additionally, as has been mentioned, there is a tremendous scramble for cash amongst leveraged hedge funds to cover redemptions and margin calls. Many are unloading lucrative gold positions to cover their bad bets.

Gold gets cheap enough, I'm gonna put some gold leaf in my Tin Foil Hat. Gives me a little more respect.

Stockstrdr,

You must be filthy rich with all these correct calls...with all that money sloshing around, I nominate you to host the first ever piggington dinner at the marine room. Surely the tab will pale in comparison to all this dough you are raking in.

What do you say?

Stan

Marine room is cheap.
Why not just make it Mr. A's?

Though, you can't get this at Mr. A's...(or anywhere else in S.D. for that matter)

Noodles are free if it hits the ground :)

I've only been to Mister A's once. The view cannot be topped, but I wasn't impressed by the food. In my experience, price and quality aren't all that well correlated at the high end.

Stan

Yeah, but I thought the objective was to find the most expensive places (not necessarily the best tasting food :) )

Time to stock up on Ford and GM
and short sell oil, gas, pharmaceuticals :)
Just kidding...

Dude, with Ford at 2 greenbacks and GM at 6 greenbacks, what really do you got to lose ?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081105/obama_bus...

Obama victory a boon to unions, auto industry, could harm oil and gas companies, others

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Barack Obama's victory in the presidential race will give labor unions and the embattled U.S. auto industry a strong ally in the White House, and likely will put pressure on oil and gas producers and pharmaceutical companies.

His election Tuesday also makes congressional approval of a fresh economic stimulus package -- perhaps as large as $150 billion -- more likely, economists said.

"There is a general consensus that some kind of stimulus plan is called for," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.

The new president's biggest challenge will be to turn around an economy that many analysts already believe is in recession. A stubborn housing slump led to the worst U.S. financial crisis in 70 years, which has caused banks to reduce lending and consumers and businesses to sharply cut back their spending.

The economic slowdown, plus a ballooning budget deficit that by some estimates could near $1 trillion in the budget year that began Oct. 1, will restrict Obama's ability to make good on some of his more ambitious promises, such as expanding health care coverage and subsidizing alternative energy.

The Illinois senator has pledged to offset some expenditures by raising corporate tax rates and income taxes on families making more than $250,000.

Obama is expected to move quickly to put his stamp on the huge $700 billion financial bailout Congress approved last month, analysts said.

Anil Kashyap, an economics professor at the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business, said Tuesday that naming the next Treasury Secretary and his top deputies -- who will oversee the bailout plan -- should be the new president's top economic priority.

In return for the rescue plan, banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and the rest of the financial sector will almost certainly face a regulatory overhaul effort by the Democratic Congress next year.

Obama's reputation as a conciliator, meanwhile, will be sorely tested by the labor-backed Employee Free Choice Act, which would allow workers to form unions by getting a majority of employees to sign a card in support of a union, rather than through a secret ballot election.

Business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce fiercely oppose the measure because they say the elimination of the secret ballot would open up workers to intimidation and harassment.

The measure, supported by Obama and most Democrats in Congress, was approved in the House last year but stalled in the Senate.

Meanwhile, Obama has promised to help Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC by doubling a recently approved loan program to $50 billion to help the auto industry develop more fuel-efficient cars.

Oil and gas companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., however, could face a windfall profits tax, which Obama has promised to impose to pay for a $1,000 "emergency energy rebate" for families.

Also on energy, Obama proposes spending $150 billion over 10 years to speed the development of plug-in hybrid cars and "commercial-scale" renewables, such as wind and solar.

Under an Obama administration, pharmaceutical companies will struggle to defend the lucrative Medicare drug benefit, which pays for medications taken by 47 million elderly people. Obama has pledged to allow the government to negotiate drug prices under the program directly with the pharmaceutical companies, saying it could save $30 billion.

Actually the steal was to buy FSLR when it dipped below 100. Obama is likely going to get his 150B to throw at alternative energy. DOH

Obama victory a boon to unions, auto industry, could harm oil and gas companies, others

Yes and no.. union goals may be counter to long term survival of auto companies. It will be interesting to see how he plans to negotiate these counter-objectives. He also has to be careful of harming oil and gas. Last time someone tried that, we had significantly reduced exploration followed by another supply squeeze.

Gotta be careful pushing down on parts of an inflated balloon. Some other part may expand and go 'pop'!!

Actually the steal was to buy FSLR when it dipped below 100. Obama is likely going to get his 150B to throw at alternative energy. DOH

Agree there... but have to add SPWRA, STP..

SPWRA - high efficiency at reasonable cost (space constrained)
STP - high volume
FSLR - lowest cost per yielded watt (if you have a lot of space)

I have not participated in this forum for some time until the last couple of days and as I have read the inner monologue of stocktrader I just felt compelled to comment. There are quite a few inconsistencies in this inner monologue about what was predicted, and what was later claimed to have been predicted. So be it, everyone has an ego.

There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace. I personally know people that have made millions on the long side during this recent move upward, yet they are fools as a blog participant who is not even a full time trader calls them? It is hardly foolish to trade a counter-trend rally off such an overextended downward condition, it is what many pros do. They are not fools. Larry Williams is one I know to use a specific name, and nobody alive could justifiably call him a fool. It really depends on what your parameters for the long side trades are. Who exactly is the fool? Predicting a 1200 level retracement is simply looking at the July low, which would serve as resistance if a rally were to reach that level, the concept of overhead supply, etc.. Basic textbook chart pattern theory there.

I certainly agree that shorting this upmove at some point will be a good trade, but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive. It seems from what I have read most people are onto this.

My last thought is that from all the research I have done over the years, I have yet to find a conclusive relationship even on a short term basis between Gold and the stock market. There are many out there who assert that you should be long GOLD if stocks drop. If you study history, there have been many declines in Gold during stock declines, so do not make that play for that reason alone.

It does seem like there are some new participants in here with alot of knowledge in trading so it is interesting to read the opinions now.

I am using this site as an indicator of RE market sentiment. I have a theory that as the SD RE market gets worse this site will continue on it's path of having fewer and fewer RE topics in the "Active Forum Topics" section. I remember when I first got on here about a year ago. It really was a RE discussion site for SD County. Now, it's about 50%. Even now that the elections concluded, I think it will find yet another subject.