Submitted by lonestar2000 on October 9, 2008 - 1:37pm.
Seems to have stabilized a bit around a 7% decline, it is hovering around 8570 now.
The Fed has one bullet left, drop rates to 0, it *almost* worked for the Japanese. :P
It looks like a lot of sheep took Jim Cramer up on his advice on selling out. I don't think we're quite at catipulation just yet, as there are still a lot of managed accounts trying to hold on (plus we've only had one New Yorker take his life), but we're on the brink.
Bailout bill is passed, but it will be at least a month till anything happens.
TED spread is still near all-time high, and carry trade is still completely unwound - credit panic has not subsided. Buying stakes in banks and buying bad debt would help to stabilize situation.
We're still facing a recession and my long-term stance on equities is bearish, until either the dollar index gets back below 75 or there's a clear Case-Shiller bottom. Short term I think that the market is oversold.
Seems to have stabilized a bit around a 7% decline, it is hovering around 8570 now.
The Fed has one bullet left, drop rates to 0, it *almost* worked for the Japanese. :P
It looks like a lot of sheep took Jim Cramer up on his advice on selling out. I don't think we're quite at catipulation just yet, as there are still a lot of managed accounts trying to hold on (plus we've only had one New Yorker take his life), but we're on the brink.
Yes, but it aint gonna happen in the short term(interest rate cut to 0). That bullet will be used one we start seeing things get worse.
There is no other good pill in the short short term.
Guess its a buy and hold strategy right now. I'm sure there will be a day when we look back at this and say 8600 was a cheap time to enter. :)
Hang on to your jobs and cash folks, the next couple of months are gonna be rough.
Layoffs pending. Those waiting for home crash in nicer parts of town. Your gonna get it.
I believe those who warned of such happenings a couple years ago were called chicken little.
Except cash by itself seems like its gonna get slaughtered too.
Unfortunately it seems like you'll have to make some speculations and hope your right more often than wrong. Doing nothing, your dollar very well might be worthless in the future.
Going all in in one thing seems like would be the riskiest including an all out cash position. Though you probably won't feel the pain in the short term as much
Submitted by lonestar2000 on October 9, 2008 - 2:17pm.
patientlywaiting wrote:
fat_lazy_union_worker wrote:
Hang on to your jobs and cash folks, the next couple of months are gonna be rough.
Layoffs pending. Those waiting for home crash in nicer parts of town. Your gonna get it.
I believe those who warned of such happenings a couple years ago were called chicken little.
And Roubini was called a raging lunatic 2 years ago, but they call him a profet now. He's still a raging lunatic, he just happens to be more right than wrong for the time being. :D
Submitted by lonestar2000 on October 9, 2008 - 4:24pm.
MarketWatch wrote:
The market could still go down another 10% or so from here just purely on momentum," according to Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates.
Submitted by lonestar2000 on October 9, 2008 - 8:00pm.
Securities are now in a self defeating tailspin, I can hardly think of anything, other than short covering rallies, that will cause even a short respite in the downturn. This is nothing like we've ever experienced and here is why: never in the history of the world have we had every-day, average folk, who don't know a stock from a schlok, had a vested interest in the stock market than we have now, that interest is their 401(k) (which is exactly what forced me to take more than a curious gander at it). You now have billions of blue collar workers waking up to the notion that they've lost 30% of their retirement savings this year alone, 10% of it in the last couple of weeks. Watch out, mutual account managers are getting the wakup call of their lives as billions move out of stocks and into any and every safe haven they can possibly find.
Securities are now in a self defeating tailspin, I can hardly think of anything, other than short covering rallies, that will cause even a short respite in the downturn. This is nothing like we've ever experienced and here is why: never in the history of the world have we had every-day, average folk, who don't know a stock from a schlok, had a vested interest in the stock market than we have now, that interest is their 401(k) (which is exactly what forced me to take more than a curious gander at it). You now have billions of blue collar workers waking up to the notion that they've lost 30% of their retirement savings this year alone, 10% of it in the last couple of weeks. Watch out, mutual account managers are getting the wakup call of their lives as billions move out of stocks and into any and every safe haven they can possibly find.
And the irony would be is everyone moves into t-bills thinking that is safer, and the government defaults. Ironic isn't it?
Personally, I think that's a bit far fetched. But it would be ironic.
Submitted by equalizer on October 9, 2008 - 8:49pm.
lonestar,
This is why it feels so different this time. So many people have 401Ks and are pulling out of stocks recently and Hedge funds have forced liquidations. Heck I should been way more bearish in 401K account, and feel like going to cash now with all talk of Great Depression, Dow 6000. If everyone over 50 starts pulling out, we are all screwed. Maybe good strategy here is to short SPX and go long select strong defensive stocks like BUD, Johnson & Johnson Netflix, Baxter International.
Need capital gains exclusions for all financial stock bought for rest of year and held for 5 years. Need CEOs of S&P 500 to come and make joint statemnt that all exec are talking no salary and only stock as compenation.
Barrons TechAnalysis (10/08/08)
"It just makes no sense now to call a bottom -- or to look for a significant decline ahead. We just don't know how any indicator or assumption will fare since there has been nothing like the current market since at least 1987. Arguably, there has been nothing like it since 1929."
Need capital gains exclusions for all financial stock bought for rest of year and held for 5 years. Need CEOs of S&P 500 to come and make joint statemnt that all exec are talking no salary and only stock as compenation.
Actually, I'm more leary of negative government intervene to try to "encourage" people to reenter the market.
1)Expiration of capital lose carryover to within 5 years.
Submitted by barnaby33 on October 10, 2008 - 2:26am.
Talk about a terrible time to got Sydney for two months and liquidate all my shorts. I've awakened each morning to see the increasing carnage in the dow and other indexes, only to realize I didn't participate.
Submitted by stockstradr on October 10, 2008 - 11:45am.
I rarely see something I think is an investment sure to pay off very well, meaning very low risk. I spotted a few today and so here are a few gems I bought today to hold long for at least five years. I’m not claiming you’ll make money on these during the recession, but once the economy starts to recover these should do really well.
I like the Chinese oil stocks because they have fallen to 5X to 8X (trailing) earnings. I like Brazil’s Petrobas because Brazil has announced a new major oil find off their coast, and PBR is still trading down at 8X earnings.
PBR: PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA PETROBRAS SPONS ADR
PTR : PETROCHINA CO LTD
SHI : SINOPEC SHANGHAI PETROCHEMICAL SPON ADR
CEO : CNOOC LTD SPONSORED ADR
Now these below I also bought, but I’m not ready to claim them as “sure bets.”
My favorite of these is the iShares FXI. The Shanghai exchange fell to 1900 last night. It is difficult to imagine it could go much lower than say 1500. So I believe China stocks are now incredibly inexpensive. So is Japan, but who knows what’s going to happen next there! for God sake, Japan’s stocks fell another 10% yesterday.
CHL: China Mobile
FXI: ISHARES TR FTSE XINHUA HK CHINA 25 INDEX
JSC: SPDR RUSSELL/NOMURA SMALL CAP JAPAN ETF
Now, you wanna gamble with some pocket change?
Today you can buy Goldman Sachs much cheaper than what the world’s greatest investor (Warren Buffet) paid for it. Buffet knows that Paulson has 700B now to play with (of our money), and Paulson’s buddies over at Goldman Sachs (where he was once CEO) are going to get a lot of that 700B. This is a stock that was $250/share only a year ago
Holy thunder lizards, I just posted this a minute ago, and now we're down to 8628, in just 60 seconds!!!
F__k 'em all.
I'm buying, lots of stock into today's decline.
Here comes 8600...
Index Value: 8,632.63
Trade Time: 3:52PM ET
Change: 625.47 (6.76%)
Prev Close: 9,258.10
Open: 9,261.69
Day's Range: 8595.04 - 9448.14
52wk Range: 9,042.97 - 14,280.00
-678
holy cowSSS!!
Unreal.
ANd now I see gold is off and running.
I'm buying, lots of stock into today's decline.
I wouldn't. You've already bought yesterday in a down market.
There is no more stimulas top prop up the markets in the short term.
Bailout bill, done.
Interest rate cut, done.
40 billion more to aig, done.
Short sell ban lifted, done.
Bank ownership by fed, publici2d.
There are no magic bunnies to pull out of the hat in the short term.
Hang on to your jobs and cash folks, the next couple of months are gonna be rough.
Layoffs pending. Those waiting for home crash in nicer parts of town. Your gonna get it.
Seems to have stabilized a bit around a 7% decline, it is hovering around 8570 now.
The Fed has one bullet left, drop rates to 0, it *almost* worked for the Japanese. :P
It looks like a lot of sheep took Jim Cramer up on his advice on selling out. I don't think we're quite at catipulation just yet, as there are still a lot of managed accounts trying to hold on (plus we've only had one New Yorker take his life), but we're on the brink.
Bailout bill is passed, but it will be at least a month till anything happens.
TED spread is still near all-time high, and carry trade is still completely unwound - credit panic has not subsided. Buying stakes in banks and buying bad debt would help to stabilize situation.
We're still facing a recession and my long-term stance on equities is bearish, until either the dollar index gets back below 75 or there's a clear Case-Shiller bottom. Short term I think that the market is oversold.
The Fed has one bullet left, drop rates to 0, it *almost* worked for the Japanese. :P
It looks like a lot of sheep took Jim Cramer up on his advice on selling out. I don't think we're quite at catipulation just yet, as there are still a lot of managed accounts trying to hold on (plus we've only had one New Yorker take his life), but we're on the brink.
Yes, but it aint gonna happen in the short term(interest rate cut to 0). That bullet will be used one we start seeing things get worse.
There is no other good pill in the short short term.
Guess its a buy and hold strategy right now. I'm sure there will be a day when we look back at this and say 8600 was a cheap time to enter. :)
Hang on to your jobs and cash folks, the next couple of months are gonna be rough.
Layoffs pending. Those waiting for home crash in nicer parts of town. Your gonna get it.
I believe those who warned of such happenings a couple years ago were called chicken little.
Hang on to your jobs and cash folks, the next couple of months are gonna be rough.
Layoffs pending. Those waiting for home crash in nicer parts of town. Your gonna get it.
I believe those who warned of such happenings a couple years ago were called chicken little.
Except cash by itself seems like its gonna get slaughtered too.
Unfortunately it seems like you'll have to make some speculations and hope your right more often than wrong. Doing nothing, your dollar very well might be worthless in the future.
Going all in in one thing seems like would be the riskiest including an all out cash position. Though you probably won't feel the pain in the short term as much
Hang on to your jobs and cash folks, the next couple of months are gonna be rough.
Layoffs pending. Those waiting for home crash in nicer parts of town. Your gonna get it.
I believe those who warned of such happenings a couple years ago were called chicken little.
And Roubini was called a raging lunatic 2 years ago, but they call him a profet now. He's still a raging lunatic, he just happens to be more right than wrong for the time being. :D
So remember that thread about 4000 point drop??
Hmmm....
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us...
Nikkei 225 down 995 10.88%
Dow futures down 150. I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be a monumental down day.
So what do you folks think? I'm contempting entering BAC again at 19.50....Hmmmmm.....
This pretty much sums it up..
Stocks are for suckers
Don't be a sucker
Maybe there's a bounce next week. But I think tomorrows gonna see the pain train pulling into the station for a long stop.
Securities are now in a self defeating tailspin, I can hardly think of anything, other than short covering rallies, that will cause even a short respite in the downturn. This is nothing like we've ever experienced and here is why: never in the history of the world have we had every-day, average folk, who don't know a stock from a schlok, had a vested interest in the stock market than we have now, that interest is their 401(k) (which is exactly what forced me to take more than a curious gander at it). You now have billions of blue collar workers waking up to the notion that they've lost 30% of their retirement savings this year alone, 10% of it in the last couple of weeks. Watch out, mutual account managers are getting the wakup call of their lives as billions move out of stocks and into any and every safe haven they can possibly find.
What was Powayseller's prediction for the S&P this spring? 600?
Or was that last year? I forget now.
Anyway, here's to Black Friday, and I'm not talking about the day after Thanksgiving.
Steely Dan anyone?
And the irony would be is everyone moves into t-bills thinking that is safer, and the government defaults. Ironic isn't it?
Personally, I think that's a bit far fetched. But it would be ironic.
lonestar,
This is why it feels so different this time. So many people have 401Ks and are pulling out of stocks recently and Hedge funds have forced liquidations. Heck I should been way more bearish in 401K account, and feel like going to cash now with all talk of Great Depression, Dow 6000. If everyone over 50 starts pulling out, we are all screwed. Maybe good strategy here is to short SPX and go long select strong defensive stocks like BUD, Johnson & Johnson Netflix, Baxter International.
Need capital gains exclusions for all financial stock bought for rest of year and held for 5 years. Need CEOs of S&P 500 to come and make joint statemnt that all exec are talking no salary and only stock as compenation.
Barrons TechAnalysis (10/08/08)
"It just makes no sense now to call a bottom -- or to look for a significant decline ahead. We just don't know how any indicator or assumption will fare since there has been nothing like the current market since at least 1987. Arguably, there has been nothing like it since 1929."
Need capital gains exclusions for all financial stock bought for rest of year and held for 5 years. Need CEOs of S&P 500 to come and make joint statemnt that all exec are talking no salary and only stock as compenation.
Actually, I'm more leary of negative government intervene to try to "encourage" people to reenter the market.
1)Expiration of capital lose carryover to within 5 years.
2)etc
Talk about a terrible time to got Sydney for two months and liquidate all my shorts. I've awakened each morning to see the increasing carnage in the dow and other indexes, only to realize I didn't participate.
Whats a bear in a remote land to do?
Josh
Anyone have thoughts on Sirius Radio stock? Its currently at 44 cents a share, pretty cheap and I dont foresee them going anywhere. Thoughts?
Can someone explain why GLD and SLV are crashing along with the market? Are the big boys liquidating to offset their bleeding balance sheets?
I rarely see something I think is an investment sure to pay off very well, meaning very low risk. I spotted a few today and so here are a few gems I bought today to hold long for at least five years. I’m not claiming you’ll make money on these during the recession, but once the economy starts to recover these should do really well.
I like the Chinese oil stocks because they have fallen to 5X to 8X (trailing) earnings. I like Brazil’s Petrobas because Brazil has announced a new major oil find off their coast, and PBR is still trading down at 8X earnings.
PBR: PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA PETROBRAS SPONS ADR
PTR : PETROCHINA CO LTD
SHI : SINOPEC SHANGHAI PETROCHEMICAL SPON ADR
CEO : CNOOC LTD SPONSORED ADR
Now these below I also bought, but I’m not ready to claim them as “sure bets.”
My favorite of these is the iShares FXI. The Shanghai exchange fell to 1900 last night. It is difficult to imagine it could go much lower than say 1500. So I believe China stocks are now incredibly inexpensive. So is Japan, but who knows what’s going to happen next there! for God sake, Japan’s stocks fell another 10% yesterday.
CHL: China Mobile
FXI: ISHARES TR FTSE XINHUA HK CHINA 25 INDEX
JSC: SPDR RUSSELL/NOMURA SMALL CAP JAPAN ETF
Now, you wanna gamble with some pocket change?
Today you can buy Goldman Sachs much cheaper than what the world’s greatest investor (Warren Buffet) paid for it. Buffet knows that Paulson has 700B now to play with (of our money), and Paulson’s buddies over at Goldman Sachs (where he was once CEO) are going to get a lot of that 700B. This is a stock that was $250/share only a year ago
gold also at good pricing today!
i'm buying gold today