Didn't powayseller have a post here a couple of years back calling for dow 6000? Everyone tore her a new one as I recall. Looks like she may have been right -- unfortunately her timing was a bit off. Still if I had sold everything then I'd be in better shape today.
On Wall St, early = wrong. Lots of people think of me as the uber-bear. Even I didn't think the market was going to go this low. The rate of decline is flat out shocking. Each time we hit a new low though I look around and see that the fraud and lies aren't being forced out into the open YET. Until that occurs, economic recovery will not occur.
Josh
On Wall St, early = wrong. Lots of people think of me as the uber-bear. Even I didn't think the market was going to go this low. The rate of decline is flat out shocking. Each time we hit a new low though I look around and see that the fraud and lies aren't being forced out into the open YET. Until that occurs, economic recovery will not occur.
Josh
Gee, kind of makes you wonder how big the lies and fraud are. But hey, Obama said go buy stock so it can't be that bad or will that be his "mission accomplished" moment?
Didn't powayseller have a post here a couple of years back calling for dow 6000? Everyone tore her a new one as I recall. Looks like she may have been right -- unfortunately her timing was a bit off. Still if I had sold everything then I'd be in better shape today.
Your right but I don't think ppl were taking issue with the 6000. It was the time frame in which she was calling it. I think we were at 10.5K at the time and she was calling 6K in 6 months... The peice as got to be around some where... Do the research.
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 281.40 points, or 4.09%, to 6594.44, its lowest close since April 1997. The Nasdaq Composite fell 54.15, or 4.00%, to 1299.59. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 index shed 30.32, or 4.25%, to 682.55, 56% below its bull-market peak in October 2007. That's the biggest drop for the market since the 1930s"
PS predicted that the S&P500 would fall to 600 by the spring of '07. Obviously, that timing was way off.
But to be fair, PS recommended buying RYURX, which is an inverse S&P500 fund. The S&P500 was at 1301 when she made the call (August 28, 2006). That investment is doing very well, to say the least.
That being said, I've read a lot of PS's posts and she's not all that credible to me.
Submitted by patientrenter on March 5, 2009 - 7:34pm.
ltokuda wrote:
barnaby33 wrote:
On Wall St, early = wrong.
Josh
PS predicted that the S&P500 would fall to 600 by the spring of '07. Obviously, that timing was way off.
But to be fair, PS recommended buying RYURX, which is an inverse S&P500 fund. The S&P500 was at 1301 when she made the call (August 28, 2006). That investment is doing very well, to say the least.
That being said, I've read a lot of PS's posts and she's not all that credible to me.
"Isn't the DOW Jones Industrial average just a short-twitch numerical representation of a bunch of guesses about other people's assumptions about the financial well-being of an arbitrarily chosen group of 30 out of tens of thousands of possible companies?"
Submitted by temeculaguy on March 5, 2009 - 10:47pm.
Josh or anyone else please chime in, when it hits 6k or 5k or 4k, is any of it a signal to buy? Ignoring the dow and the s&p per se, is there a date or a circumstance that you see a moderate term (1-5 years) stock play that is a value. As hammered as some stocks are, picking up something for 10 cents on the dollar (albeit that dollar was an inflated value) as a deal.
Like many people, I have my investments spread around in different areas and in different accounts, but I have one that is my pure gambling fund. The 401k, the cash reserves, the canned food, the ammo, the water, all that is covered. I've got 5 or 6k in the gambling fund that I thought I might play with on etrade. Just realize that this money, if lost isn't going to prevent me from eating, the gambling fund is reserved for vegas, strip clubs, golf weekends, you know, things I can and probably should live without. Success with stocks out of the gambling fund will just finance more debauchery but play along wont you. Assuming 5 different 1k purchases, what are your thoughts on these stocks: Harley Davidson, GE, Ford, Costco, Phillip Morris, and Hovnanian.
Which one would you drop from the list?
I know they are all in the crapper, some may not survive the year. If a single one returns to glory it would cover the other 4 (with the exception of costco and PM, they are only down by half, the others are small fractions of their previous value). Harley and GE have P/E's of like 3, costco actually had higher sales recently yet has gotten beaten up just because it is a traded stock, cigarettes in foriegn countries, winner, winner, chicken dinner. I think ford may make it, their new hybrids look impressive, maybe they will understand just in time. I think hovnanian homes as a penny stock is worth a look. While I don't own a harley, their brand loyalty amongst their customers is unparalleled, it's like a cult, they literally will stop being friends with someone for purchasing another brand, I just don't see them vanishing from the planet in my lifetime.
So there are my bottom feeder picks, they are all in the crapper right now and going lower every day, fast. At dow 6000, dow 4000, or whatever, what do you think of these gambles? Let's just say that the country doesn't end up a nuclear wasteland, some companies will survive on the other side, any ideas on which ones and no safe plays, keep the gambling fund ideals in mind.
TG: Given the amount of uncertainty out there, as well as the fact that nearly all financial reporters are either shills or idiots, I'd fall back on the tried and true methods of valuation. I'm a big fan of Ben Graham ("The Intelligent Investor") and while I generally shy away from the stock market, when I do invest, I use his valuation tool to do so. Link to it is found below:
I've found that most financial/company advice, even when well meaning, is wrong and it's best to fall back on a tool you know you can trust.
My background is corporate finance and accounting, including handling a good size institutional portfolio for the company I worked. I've seen some of the prognostications on this board and they've ranged from excellent to idiotic. There is a huge difference between investing and trading and there are undoubtedly some excellent long-term value plays out there, but DO YOUR RESEARCH.
And don't listen to anyone who fancies themselves a trader. These clowns inevitably make money in the short-term and crow about it to anyone who will listen, but they lose their ass over the long haul. Just like Vegas, baby, the house always wins!
Submitted by temeculaguy on March 5, 2009 - 11:28pm.
Allan, The problem with ben's theory is that it is about picking winners, they need to have a growth rate for the formula to work. Don't worry, I do not act solely on anyone's advice, just looking for feedback, but it's just a factor. None of these will grow in the near future, that's why they are so cheap, the ben's of the world say no, which is why they are twisting in the wind. I like that theory too, I have the needed money invested like that. But when everyone else runs away, sometimes it plays out to pick up the pieces, these gambles are just plays against bankruptcy. I'm trying to be a grown up here, I have a boys trip coming up with my posse, the gambling fund traditionally ends up on a blackjack table or in a g-string, I'm saving myself from myself by tying most of it up before I go, there is a method to the madness. I do the same with junk food, i buy the stuff I don't really like then I'm safe from eating it, there is a method to the madness, it's taken a while but i've figured out how to fool myself.
Submitted by scaredycat on March 5, 2009 - 11:46pm.
it's kind of telling that there's no real differencebetween throwing some money down on the stock market and throwing some money down on the craps table. wall st. is just another casino. it's nice to beleive that some combination of intelligence will work, or an ability to identity the wheat from the cahff...but i doubt it's possible. just pick randomly. the signal to look for that for me means BUY is when the djia is the same as one ounce of gold. dow 2500 gold 2500 an ounce means trade all the gold for stocks. probably sometime in 2011.
Submitted by poorsaver on March 5, 2009 - 11:52pm.
TG, out of your picks, I think Costco and MO are the only survivors. You also need to start reading the market ticker daily, and the accompanying blog, the ticker forum. It's the best place on the web for advice. Period. http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
It's like a Piggington equivalent to the financial markets, with an equally impressive track record.
I went back into the market today (pulled 1/2 out at dow 14k)...risk/reward is there. I see it as binary. If we are in a depression, it's going to get a whole lot worse. If we aren't, there is a lot of upside. I still have a year of living expenses in cash, but no, not enough food, gold, ammo:)
I still think inflation hedges, U.S. currency hedges, etc are important. I see no way that we get out of this without inflation and dollar devaluation on a large scale.
Submitted by temeculaguy on March 6, 2009 - 12:04am.
poorsaver, actually I wasn't going to go with MO, that is the domestic version, I was going with PM, phillip morris's international group that just sells overseas, americans don't seem to smoke much but take one trip to an indian casino locally, the foreigners love the stuff.
You really think HOG is going under? It's actually my fav of the group besides costco, but the upside of harley is much greater due to the depressed value and low p/e. Even in a mad max world, they will be the choice of the road warriors. I could be wrong, all those 50 year old guys i see every weekend on their harleys might go out and buy japanese motorcycles for reliability and gas milege like car drivers have done. Bit have you ever drank with one? I'm not seeing it, of the weekend biker types I know, they would rather lose a small appendage than sit on anything else.
Submitted by temeculaguy on March 6, 2009 - 12:14am.
stansd wrote:
I went back into the market today (pulled 1/2 out at dow 14k)...risk/reward is there. I see it as binary. If we are in a depression, it's going to get a whole lot worse. If we aren't, there is a lot of upside. I still have a year of living expenses in cash, but no, not enough food, gold, ammo:)
I still think inflation hedges, U.S. currency hedges, etc are important. I see no way that we get out of this without inflation and dollar devaluation on a large scale.
Stan
See that's what i was thinking, stan cannot really lose, out at 14 and back in at 6. If it goes to 0, you are up 1. Your dollar cost average is 7. I have had a little wine aecitia, but that's not really news, and no, there are currently no crazy horse ladies or crazy cat ladies on the schedule. horse and excessive cat ownership questions have been added to the pre dating questionaire, except for one horse lady, but god she's cute and she only owns a half interest in the horse, I think that's worth the risk/reward.
And I am finishing off a bottle of Veuve. The children are nestled all snug in their beds and I the insomniac am catching up with my Piggy friends.
So how many cats makes you crazy? What if they decide to move in with you vs. you go out and buy them on purpose. I always thought you were pretty narrow minded when it came to cat issues. Cats, after all represent the feminine and cannot possibly be owned. It is not like you (TG) own Rottweilers or Dobermans. By the way, that comes up when you try to buy insurance on line now.
So how many cats makes you crazy? What if they decide to move in with you vs. you go out and buy them on purpose. I always thought you were pretty narrow minded when it came to cat issues. Cats, after all represent the feminine and cannot possibly be owned. It is not like you (TG) own Rottweilers or Dobermans. By the way, that comes up when you try to buy insurance on line now.
One cat is too many. I'm amazed at those who will keep a box of shit in their house. What's with that? A woman can usually have a man or a cat, not both.
Dogs have 40% of the prefrontal cortex of human beings. This is where all the ability to learn, and deductive reasoning is stored. Cats don't have a prefrontal cortex. It's not that they can't be owned. They just have no idea who owns them. Nor are they ever responsible for rash and silly acts. What man wants that in his life?
Dogs have 40% of the prefrontal cortex of human beings. This is where all the ability to learn, and deductive reasoning is stored. Cats don't have a prefrontal cortex. It's not that they can't be owned. They just have no idea who owns them. Nor are they ever responsible for rash and silly acts. What man wants that in his life?
Submitted by 4plexowner on March 6, 2009 - 10:10am.
"the signal to look for that for me means BUY is when the djia is the same as one ounce of gold. dow 2500 gold 2500 an ounce means trade all the gold for stocks. probably sometime in 2011"
Richard Russell always mentions Dow 3000 or Dow 3500 as the point where the price of one oz of gold equals the value of the Dow - Richard says that major bear markets end when the ratio of Dow to gold is in the 1:1 - 1:2 range (1 or 2 oz gold buys the Dow) - seems reasonable to me in the 2011 timeframe
save some of your gold to trade for real estate as well - 2011 is probably too early for that trade - more likely 2012 to 2014 timeframe
Submitted by threadkiller on March 6, 2009 - 10:29am.
I'm sticking by my original estimate that DOW bottoms @ 5600. What really irks me is when some CA republican, ok I'll name him (John Campbell) gets on Bloomberg and then says we need to spend more money on houses and cars to get us out of this economic slump. Doesn't he get it, overspending is what got us here, more spending will just dig us in deeper.
Submitted by 4plexowner on March 6, 2009 - 10:47am.
lots of people calling for a bottom around mid-5000 for the Dow followed by a rally back up to 9500 to 10500
then comes the big decline down to the ultimate low for this bear market - Richard Russell pointed out recently that we COULD be (nobody knows ahead of time) retracing the entire rise of the Dow from the 41 point level in the 1940's to the 2007 high - only hindsight will tell us for sure
a bottom around 5500 with a rally back to 10K'ish followed by a decline to the ultimate low would be similar to the 1929 to 1932 behavior of the Dow - more money was lost on the second decline than the first because the bear market rally sucked everybody back into the market
rest assured that during the coming rally all the talking heads will be singing the praises of Obama's recovery and how there is nothing but sunshine and lollipops forevermore - and people like me will be trying to get their friends and family out of the stock market before the big decline but will be labelled as gloom and doomers, conspiracy theorists, etc ...
Submitted by anxvariety on March 6, 2009 - 10:58am.
Is there really a diff between 6000, 4000 and 1000. Citibank is a penny stock now.. why would anything stop sliding when there is not much spending and the very dollar itself will probably be threatened. I won't be buying. You think any sort of restructuring in these companies is going to consider the shareholders? I've had my shares in companies go to zero and there was really no explanation, in fact they are trading again today without me ;)
Submitted by 4plexowner on March 6, 2009 - 11:22am.
in general, stocks are for suckers - they are a rigged game and the game isn't rigged in favor of the average investor
there are times when the average investor can do OK in stocks - now isn't one of them
unfortunately, people in this country are bombarded with really bad advice and conveniently picked 'facts' about stocks:
- buy and hold
- dollar cost averaging
- stocks return 7% on average over long term
this bad advice is compounded by systems that encourage people to buy stocks and hold them for the long term:
- tax savings via 401K's and IRA's
- employee stock purchase plans
- company matching for stock purchases
- penalties for early withdrawal from these systems
all of these factors cause the average investor to lose money in the stock market over the long haul
~
and another significant factor: people are not allowed to go short in most of their 401K and IRA accounts - the average investor shouldn't be shorting stocks but the fact that he isn't allowed to do so is another indication that the game is rigged in the house's favor (ie, keep the suckers long stocks regardless of what the market is doing)
4plex, I have to agree with you now but I'm pained to say that I should have known this earlier. My mom warned me about a year ago that I shouldn't have ANY retirement money in stocks and I told her that that's just the way things work now and we don't have much of a choice. She was born during the depression so her parents taught her that from a young age. I should have listened.
I think from here on out I'm never ever doing any of these tax-deferred investments again. I'll just pay the taxes and put my moolah into some concrete things near here, whether it's land or equipment or businesses or whatever. I might try that microinvesting idea, that seems like a good way to keep our money away from the worthless garbage in the "financial services" industry. What a f***ing joke.
These piece of filth worthless wall st. MBA f***ers that have stolen this country out from under us better hide and hide good because once Joe America figures out where the money went they are gonna go looking for them. Run motherf***ers, run. They should be thinking of Kurt Russell in "Tombstone" right about now...
Didn't powayseller have a post here a couple of years back calling for dow 6000? Everyone tore her a new one as I recall. Looks like she may have been right -- unfortunately her timing was a bit off. Still if I had sold everything then I'd be in better shape today.
On Wall St, early = wrong. Lots of people think of me as the uber-bear. Even I didn't think the market was going to go this low. The rate of decline is flat out shocking. Each time we hit a new low though I look around and see that the fraud and lies aren't being forced out into the open YET. Until that occurs, economic recovery will not occur.
Josh
That is pretty sharp there, Josh, that bit about the lies and fraud.
Venus goes retrograde tomorrow. That may facilitate the light shining on the truth from an astrological perspective.
Josh
Gee, kind of makes you wonder how big the lies and fraud are. But hey, Obama said go buy stock so it can't be that bad or will that be his "mission accomplished" moment?
Your right but I don't think ppl were taking issue with the 6000. It was the time frame in which she was calling it. I think we were at 10.5K at the time and she was calling 6K in 6 months... The peice as got to be around some where... Do the research.
So to sum... Rate Vs Value.
CE
6000... 4000 what's the big deal? Obama says we dont need to concern ourselves with the pesky day to day fluctations in the DOW.
Gawd, people get bent out of shape over the smallest things.
Go Obama!
Venus goes retrograde tomorrow. That may facilitate the light shining on the truth from an astrological perspective.
Does that mean we will finally get to see just what is sitting on BofA and Citi's books?
Iv'e been reading a lot of sources calling for 4000-5000 Dow. That will pretty much put us back to when the stock bubble started.
The best article (along with good charts) that I have seen is here:
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/20...
On the same note:
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 281.40 points, or 4.09%, to 6594.44, its lowest close since April 1997. The Nasdaq Composite fell 54.15, or 4.00%, to 1299.59. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 index shed 30.32, or 4.25%, to 682.55, 56% below its bull-market peak in October 2007. That's the biggest drop for the market since the 1930s"
Josh
PS predicted that the S&P500 would fall to 600 by the spring of '07. Obviously, that timing was way off.
But to be fair, PS recommended buying RYURX, which is an inverse S&P500 fund. The S&P500 was at 1301 when she made the call (August 28, 2006). That investment is doing very well, to say the least.
That being said, I've read a lot of PS's posts and she's not all that credible to me.
Josh
PS predicted that the S&P500 would fall to 600 by the spring of '07. Obviously, that timing was way off.
But to be fair, PS recommended buying RYURX, which is an inverse S&P500 fund. The S&P500 was at 1301 when she made the call (August 28, 2006). That investment is doing very well, to say the least.
That being said, I've read a lot of PS's posts and she's not all that credible to me.
If ps were a painter, she'd be an impressionist.
"Isn't the DOW Jones Industrial average just a short-twitch numerical representation of a bunch of guesses about other people's assumptions about the financial well-being of an arbitrarily chosen group of 30 out of tens of thousands of possible companies?"
Josh or anyone else please chime in, when it hits 6k or 5k or 4k, is any of it a signal to buy? Ignoring the dow and the s&p per se, is there a date or a circumstance that you see a moderate term (1-5 years) stock play that is a value. As hammered as some stocks are, picking up something for 10 cents on the dollar (albeit that dollar was an inflated value) as a deal.
Like many people, I have my investments spread around in different areas and in different accounts, but I have one that is my pure gambling fund. The 401k, the cash reserves, the canned food, the ammo, the water, all that is covered. I've got 5 or 6k in the gambling fund that I thought I might play with on etrade. Just realize that this money, if lost isn't going to prevent me from eating, the gambling fund is reserved for vegas, strip clubs, golf weekends, you know, things I can and probably should live without. Success with stocks out of the gambling fund will just finance more debauchery but play along wont you. Assuming 5 different 1k purchases, what are your thoughts on these stocks: Harley Davidson, GE, Ford, Costco, Phillip Morris, and Hovnanian.
Which one would you drop from the list?
I know they are all in the crapper, some may not survive the year. If a single one returns to glory it would cover the other 4 (with the exception of costco and PM, they are only down by half, the others are small fractions of their previous value). Harley and GE have P/E's of like 3, costco actually had higher sales recently yet has gotten beaten up just because it is a traded stock, cigarettes in foriegn countries, winner, winner, chicken dinner. I think ford may make it, their new hybrids look impressive, maybe they will understand just in time. I think hovnanian homes as a penny stock is worth a look. While I don't own a harley, their brand loyalty amongst their customers is unparalleled, it's like a cult, they literally will stop being friends with someone for purchasing another brand, I just don't see them vanishing from the planet in my lifetime.
So there are my bottom feeder picks, they are all in the crapper right now and going lower every day, fast. At dow 6000, dow 4000, or whatever, what do you think of these gambles? Let's just say that the country doesn't end up a nuclear wasteland, some companies will survive on the other side, any ideas on which ones and no safe plays, keep the gambling fund ideals in mind.
TG: Given the amount of uncertainty out there, as well as the fact that nearly all financial reporters are either shills or idiots, I'd fall back on the tried and true methods of valuation. I'm a big fan of Ben Graham ("The Intelligent Investor") and while I generally shy away from the stock market, when I do invest, I use his valuation tool to do so. Link to it is found below:
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/valua...
I've found that most financial/company advice, even when well meaning, is wrong and it's best to fall back on a tool you know you can trust.
My background is corporate finance and accounting, including handling a good size institutional portfolio for the company I worked. I've seen some of the prognostications on this board and they've ranged from excellent to idiotic. There is a huge difference between investing and trading and there are undoubtedly some excellent long-term value plays out there, but DO YOUR RESEARCH.
And don't listen to anyone who fancies themselves a trader. These clowns inevitably make money in the short-term and crow about it to anyone who will listen, but they lose their ass over the long haul. Just like Vegas, baby, the house always wins!
Allan, The problem with ben's theory is that it is about picking winners, they need to have a growth rate for the formula to work. Don't worry, I do not act solely on anyone's advice, just looking for feedback, but it's just a factor. None of these will grow in the near future, that's why they are so cheap, the ben's of the world say no, which is why they are twisting in the wind. I like that theory too, I have the needed money invested like that. But when everyone else runs away, sometimes it plays out to pick up the pieces, these gambles are just plays against bankruptcy. I'm trying to be a grown up here, I have a boys trip coming up with my posse, the gambling fund traditionally ends up on a blackjack table or in a g-string, I'm saving myself from myself by tying most of it up before I go, there is a method to the madness. I do the same with junk food, i buy the stuff I don't really like then I'm safe from eating it, there is a method to the madness, it's taken a while but i've figured out how to fool myself.
it's kind of telling that there's no real differencebetween throwing some money down on the stock market and throwing some money down on the craps table. wall st. is just another casino. it's nice to beleive that some combination of intelligence will work, or an ability to identity the wheat from the cahff...but i doubt it's possible. just pick randomly. the signal to look for that for me means BUY is when the djia is the same as one ounce of gold. dow 2500 gold 2500 an ounce means trade all the gold for stocks. probably sometime in 2011.
TG, out of your picks, I think Costco and MO are the only survivors. You also need to start reading the market ticker daily, and the accompanying blog, the ticker forum. It's the best place on the web for advice. Period.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
It's like a Piggington equivalent to the financial markets, with an equally impressive track record.
TG-Sure you have a bunch of ammo stored and your going out with a horse woman this week and next week it is the crazy cat lady. Are you drunk?
I went back into the market today (pulled 1/2 out at dow 14k)...risk/reward is there. I see it as binary. If we are in a depression, it's going to get a whole lot worse. If we aren't, there is a lot of upside. I still have a year of living expenses in cash, but no, not enough food, gold, ammo:)
I still think inflation hedges, U.S. currency hedges, etc are important. I see no way that we get out of this without inflation and dollar devaluation on a large scale.
Stan
poorsaver, actually I wasn't going to go with MO, that is the domestic version, I was going with PM, phillip morris's international group that just sells overseas, americans don't seem to smoke much but take one trip to an indian casino locally, the foreigners love the stuff.
You really think HOG is going under? It's actually my fav of the group besides costco, but the upside of harley is much greater due to the depressed value and low p/e. Even in a mad max world, they will be the choice of the road warriors. I could be wrong, all those 50 year old guys i see every weekend on their harleys might go out and buy japanese motorcycles for reliability and gas milege like car drivers have done. Bit have you ever drank with one? I'm not seeing it, of the weekend biker types I know, they would rather lose a small appendage than sit on anything else.
I still think inflation hedges, U.S. currency hedges, etc are important. I see no way that we get out of this without inflation and dollar devaluation on a large scale.
Stan
See that's what i was thinking, stan cannot really lose, out at 14 and back in at 6. If it goes to 0, you are up 1. Your dollar cost average is 7. I have had a little wine aecitia, but that's not really news, and no, there are currently no crazy horse ladies or crazy cat ladies on the schedule. horse and excessive cat ownership questions have been added to the pre dating questionaire, except for one horse lady, but god she's cute and she only owns a half interest in the horse, I think that's worth the risk/reward.
And I am finishing off a bottle of Veuve. The children are nestled all snug in their beds and I the insomniac am catching up with my Piggy friends.
So how many cats makes you crazy? What if they decide to move in with you vs. you go out and buy them on purpose. I always thought you were pretty narrow minded when it came to cat issues. Cats, after all represent the feminine and cannot possibly be owned. It is not like you (TG) own Rottweilers or Dobermans. By the way, that comes up when you try to buy insurance on line now.
One cat is too many. I'm amazed at those who will keep a box of shit in their house. What's with that? A woman can usually have a man or a cat, not both.
Dogs have 40% of the prefrontal cortex of human beings. This is where all the ability to learn, and deductive reasoning is stored. Cats don't have a prefrontal cortex. It's not that they can't be owned. They just have no idea who owns them. Nor are they ever responsible for rash and silly acts. What man wants that in his life?
Dogs have 40% of the prefrontal cortex of human beings. This is where all the ability to learn, and deductive reasoning is stored. Cats don't have a prefrontal cortex. It's not that they can't be owned. They just have no idea who owns them. Nor are they ever responsible for rash and silly acts. What man wants that in his life?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVNTdWbVBgc
wow
just wow
oh, the wows are about the cat bashing
my girls are not amused
"the signal to look for that for me means BUY is when the djia is the same as one ounce of gold. dow 2500 gold 2500 an ounce means trade all the gold for stocks. probably sometime in 2011"
Richard Russell always mentions Dow 3000 or Dow 3500 as the point where the price of one oz of gold equals the value of the Dow - Richard says that major bear markets end when the ratio of Dow to gold is in the 1:1 - 1:2 range (1 or 2 oz gold buys the Dow) - seems reasonable to me in the 2011 timeframe
save some of your gold to trade for real estate as well - 2011 is probably too early for that trade - more likely 2012 to 2014 timeframe
I'm sticking by my original estimate that DOW bottoms @ 5600. What really irks me is when some CA republican, ok I'll name him (John Campbell) gets on Bloomberg and then says we need to spend more money on houses and cars to get us out of this economic slump. Doesn't he get it, overspending is what got us here, more spending will just dig us in deeper.
lots of people calling for a bottom around mid-5000 for the Dow followed by a rally back up to 9500 to 10500
then comes the big decline down to the ultimate low for this bear market - Richard Russell pointed out recently that we COULD be (nobody knows ahead of time) retracing the entire rise of the Dow from the 41 point level in the 1940's to the 2007 high - only hindsight will tell us for sure
a bottom around 5500 with a rally back to 10K'ish followed by a decline to the ultimate low would be similar to the 1929 to 1932 behavior of the Dow - more money was lost on the second decline than the first because the bear market rally sucked everybody back into the market
rest assured that during the coming rally all the talking heads will be singing the praises of Obama's recovery and how there is nothing but sunshine and lollipops forevermore - and people like me will be trying to get their friends and family out of the stock market before the big decline but will be labelled as gloom and doomers, conspiracy theorists, etc ...
Is there really a diff between 6000, 4000 and 1000. Citibank is a penny stock now.. why would anything stop sliding when there is not much spending and the very dollar itself will probably be threatened. I won't be buying. You think any sort of restructuring in these companies is going to consider the shareholders? I've had my shares in companies go to zero and there was really no explanation, in fact they are trading again today without me ;)
in general, stocks are for suckers - they are a rigged game and the game isn't rigged in favor of the average investor
there are times when the average investor can do OK in stocks - now isn't one of them
unfortunately, people in this country are bombarded with really bad advice and conveniently picked 'facts' about stocks:
- buy and hold
- dollar cost averaging
- stocks return 7% on average over long term
this bad advice is compounded by systems that encourage people to buy stocks and hold them for the long term:
- tax savings via 401K's and IRA's
- employee stock purchase plans
- company matching for stock purchases
- penalties for early withdrawal from these systems
all of these factors cause the average investor to lose money in the stock market over the long haul
~
and another significant factor: people are not allowed to go short in most of their 401K and IRA accounts - the average investor shouldn't be shorting stocks but the fact that he isn't allowed to do so is another indication that the game is rigged in the house's favor (ie, keep the suckers long stocks regardless of what the market is doing)
4plex, I have to agree with you now but I'm pained to say that I should have known this earlier. My mom warned me about a year ago that I shouldn't have ANY retirement money in stocks and I told her that that's just the way things work now and we don't have much of a choice. She was born during the depression so her parents taught her that from a young age. I should have listened.
I think from here on out I'm never ever doing any of these tax-deferred investments again. I'll just pay the taxes and put my moolah into some concrete things near here, whether it's land or equipment or businesses or whatever. I might try that microinvesting idea, that seems like a good way to keep our money away from the worthless garbage in the "financial services" industry. What a f***ing joke.
These piece of filth worthless wall st. MBA f***ers that have stolen this country out from under us better hide and hide good because once Joe America figures out where the money went they are gonna go looking for them. Run motherf***ers, run. They should be thinking of Kurt Russell in "Tombstone" right about now...
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