Submitted by stockstradr on November 10, 2007 - 12:19am.
I placed my bets (on the downside of market) many months ago, and everything is proceeding perfectly on plan and that is a wonderful feeling.
I view it as inevitable we'll see 1300 on S&P 500 within six months.
I see 1300 before the year's end as distinct possibility, but I'm not counting on it happening.
My portfolio:
20% GLD
The rest is a mixture of very aggressively bearish put option positions on indexes, some 2X leveraged bear funds, some 1X leveraged bear funds, and a few puts on oil. Yes that is an insanely risky portfolio, but it IS paying off.
Everything is sunny except those oil puts, and those will turn around during the next twelve months as the unfolding global recession reduces demand for oil.
Who knows in this market anymore. We could rally from here, or not stop until we hit 11,000. It was exactly a month ago yesterday that we hit the all time high of 14,164, now we're 1000pts down.
I think Black Friday retail sales results will be viewed as indicative of the consumer's strength, and IMO it's not good.
Another rate cut, might produce another one day rally, but year end reporting is probably going to be dismal.
Submitted by LA_Renter on November 10, 2007 - 11:51am.
"It was exactly a month ago yesterday that we hit the all time high of 14,164, now we're 1000pts down."
That high of 14,164 occurred after the summer credit crunch sent the Dow to about 12,500 in mid August. Some reasons we saw the rally to over 14k is that the Fed began easing starting with a 50 bps cut and the street made the assumption that the Financials threw the kitchen sink into third quarter earnings thus the worst of the credit crunch had passed (and we all lived happily ever after). The true reality of the credit crisis is beginning to set in and it is far from over. The Royal Bank of Scotland chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah in London has one of the most bearish views and IMO probably the most accurate.
"This credit crisis, when all is out, will see $250bn to $500bn of losses. The heat is on and it is inevitable that more players will have to revalue at least a decent portion" of assets they currently value "using 'mark-to-make believe'".
So far there have been about $50B in losses reported. The market has not priced in Mr. Janjuah's assumptions. Of course there is also the global growth story that clouds how the markets will react among a myriad of other factors. In other words I have no idea where the market is heading IMHO but this credit crisis thing ain't over.
Submitted by cashman on November 10, 2007 - 1:33pm.
My thoughts exactly, LA renter. I am an active trader, and was scared as hell to be in the market last week. All the technicals have broke down. I think there is a good chance either this monday or the monday after black friday will be a crash in the markets. The market has acted irrational for so long, we are way overdue for a significant drop.
My observation is that it seems like the markets are directionless. It will be bouncing +-500 points on every news of credit crunch, credit ok, gas crunch, gas etc.
Some of the stocks are all over the place. In Oct/Nov. Retail for example is extremely volatile these days. One stock that I move in and out of, Gymboree, was swinging all over the map. It started out around $34...Then all the bad news came out at retail, it went as low as $28..Then same stores numbers came out which were fine, and it's back to $34ish. There's no direction. The only thing I've been trying to do is move in and out of certain things on the volatility.
Like gymboree...20 trades this year and counting....
But for every one that I'm up at an instance in time, there a corresponding one that's down. Tech for example was hammered last week. Oh well, I still think we have and overreaction in the markets, but my opinions don't really count. We'll see what happens next week. I'm not foolish enough to say that the markets going to hit all time highs or come crashing down.
A low will be made sometime in the next 30 days either here or slightly lower, then a rally into years end to allow fund markups and bragging to fundholders of a good year.I doubt that rally will make new highs. Then a dip starting Mid Jan to Mid Feb probably back to about where we are here or slightly lower, into a significant low in March, and a big rally from there upwards in the election year. Even if we do not dip into March, that should be a major low point time wise to launch a nice advance so even if we have strength going into that date, it will still be a buy point. This current dip is a great buying opportunity, but I think a significant top will happen in 09.
I am looking for a signicant shorting opportunity for Bonds at the beginning of the year, but I will have to see if the fundamentals are lined up when we get there. I am sure this is not exactly correct, but it is what my analysis tells me to look for, I will make adjustments as necessary.
As of early morning it's back up 1% and over 13,000 again because Wal-Mart's "better-than-expected earnings hinted that consumer spending might be stronger than anticipated this holiday shopping season."
Don't get me wrong I'm glad to gain back a little ground that even my internationals lost, but you have to put this in perspective.
Wal-Mart starting slashing prices 2 months ago, where most retailers (WM included) usually wait until Thanksgiving weekend. You could argue all they did was move 4th quarter sales to the 3rd quarter.
Submitted by eyePod on November 13, 2007 - 4:56pm.
This thread is a good example of the wishful/bearish thinking on Piggington's. The DOW was up over 300 pts today. How about 13,300? But let me guess. We won't hear any positive commentary.
Submitted by drunkle on November 13, 2007 - 6:46pm.
"This thread is a good example of the wishful/bearish thinking on Piggington's. The DOW was up over 300 pts today. How about 13,300? But let me guess. We won't hear any positive commentary."
i put my 401 back into janus the other day. hooray for apple.
This thread is a good example of the wishful/bearish thinking on Piggington's. The DOW was up over 300 pts today. How about 13,300? But let me guess. We won't hear any positive commentary.
I'm pretty bullish about things, but I don't know, i feel sort of schizophrenic these days. I can't seem to make up my mind.
It's pretty much going a full circle for me. Really, I want to buy and hold long for a quality company. But, for the time being I'll take my $2 increments when I can get them... just playing right now to see if I can sort of beat the market in certain cases. Oh yeah, I'm going to have one heck of a hangover when comes tax time. I'm pretty sick of doing this. But I can't really get on the fence of going long time long completely now, or shorting completely either, and letting play money rot away isn't that exciting either.
Note: don't ask me for stock advice. I don't have a fvcking clue, and I'm pretty stupid when it comes to these things.
Submitted by LA_Renter on November 28, 2007 - 5:53pm.
i found this quote from Barry Ritholtz on The Big Picture "The wild swings in the markets, +/- 2%, with violent up 200 or 300 point days don't typically come in healthy Bull markets -- these spasms are symbolic of Bear markets."
Housing bust intact, credit crisis intact, nothing really changed today. Rick Santelli really nailed it on CNBC today, he basically said the FED rate cut is not going to impact the credit crisis one iota. Much like the dotcom bubble and the bursting of this housing bubble, the markets will be buyoed artifically till all the big players recoup their losses. Then joe sixpack will be left holding the bag. Day traders are having a field day though.
Submitted by HereWeGo on November 28, 2007 - 6:52pm.
Yeah, bears are silly. But most bulls' arguments are no more compelling, at least for a 6 month outlook or so.
I guess throwing your hands up in the air and looking frazzled at the camera doesn't inspire confidence in potential investors, but I suspect that's where many investors' sentiments lie now.
I'm up 40k today. (I won't mention the previous 50k down over the past few days).
On the brighter side, GYMB is doing a repurchase. Looks like we have another cycle of up days, followed by panic, followed by more volatility. Enjoy the rollercoaster ride.
These are the days I like to drop in here, big up or down days. On the big down days there is always a thread about the day, and big ups rarely if ever. I do not see anything wrong with that because in general this is a very bearish blog, which is fine. It is becoming an interesting study for me in sentiment. This is one of the most bearish places to study sentiment, so when the most bearish group gets the most bearish, that is an all out buy signal. Of course, the opposite would be true of a sell signal, the most bullish group getting excessively bullish. Excessive sentiment by the general public in either direction should be faded, the trick of course is knowing exactly when to do it.
I suspect the same thing will be true with housing, when the low is made I would wager that the general sentiment in here will be at it's most negative level ever. I do not know how to quantify that, but I think it will just be obvious when it happens.
Submitted by LA_Renter on November 28, 2007 - 8:36pm.
Hey Chris as far as sentiment is concerned I can see your point on the stock market here but not so much on housing regarding this board. The thing I would be watching for is when the guy on the street becomes uber bearish on housing. This board is not your typical guy on the street general public. Many of us were all growling when joe public was drunk on the bubble. That euphoria they were bathing in was the market top. When those people are cranky and bearish will mark the bottom regarding sentiment. RE cycles also take much longer than stock market cycles so these people may be upset about housing for a prolonged period. Here is what I would watch for on this board, long time posters who were growling at the top fading from view. These are the people that have been ahead of the curve.
Submitted by hipmatt on November 29, 2007 - 12:03am.
The Chris Johnston/Scoreboard couple is back... it seems like its been a while.
you said..."These are the days I like to drop in here, big up or down days."
you should have just said the big up days.. we have had a lot of big down days and haven't seen you around???
Its funny how he points out that there are very few posts on Pigs.com when the market is up, but a bunch when the market is down and in the same post, he shows that he does the exact same thing by only coming here and posting after the dow has had two big up days.
I haven't seen to many post(if any)from you while the dow has been falling 10% from its high. Its been how long since you've been a regular poster here? six months or so? I don't seen to many pigs trying to predict the equities markets, as this is mainly a housing site.
I agree that pigs have been bearish on housing, and I agree that they have been 100% right so far. I've seen pigs be short the dollar, which has played out sharply in the last 6 months. I've seen pigs be short RE, which has dropped sharply too. Even the pigs who have been short the market haven't done too bad, especially financial stocks and home builders. If this is one of the most bearish places to study market sentiment, then where do you study bullish sentiment? .. the fed reserve?? .. the NAR?? .. Kudlow and Company?
And the market sentiment thing keeps popping up to. So when everyone is bearish on housing, its time to buy right? Even when every fundamental says its going lower, right? I'd be curious to know Chris, what the sentiment is telling you about where housing is going? .. and the dow?
Submitted by 4plexowner on November 29, 2007 - 6:54am.
I guess going long gold options makes me an ultra-bear? somehow that affects my opinion on real estate?
Just closed my position in December calls - bought 7 $750 calls in August - closed the position over the last two weeks for a gain of $43,200 - not bad return on the $2800 bet
I don't post trading advice for two reasons:
1. I think it is almost impossible for someone to make money following somebody else's trading advice
2. this is a real estate blog
~
I assume you are smart enough to understand that the current action in the equity markets is not healthy - if you don't understand this I feel sorry for anyone depending on you for financial matters
~
And I just remembered that Chris Scoreboar posted inre the price of gold more than once - in all cases, according to him, the price of gold had peaked and was headed back down - gold was in the $600s at that point if I remember correctly - guess I should have been short gold instead of long?
Submitted by pertinazzio on November 29, 2007 - 7:42am.
This topic started out being about predictions for the major equity indexes. For the record, I am predicting a year end rally in equities that will bring the indexes up over their recent October highs. It is a good time to buy financials.
s&p 500 at 700 by end of summer.
I placed my bets (on the downside of market) many months ago, and everything is proceeding perfectly on plan and that is a wonderful feeling.
I view it as inevitable we'll see 1300 on S&P 500 within six months.
I see 1300 before the year's end as distinct possibility, but I'm not counting on it happening.
My portfolio:
20% GLD
The rest is a mixture of very aggressively bearish put option positions on indexes, some 2X leveraged bear funds, some 1X leveraged bear funds, and a few puts on oil. Yes that is an insanely risky portfolio, but it IS paying off.
Everything is sunny except those oil puts, and those will turn around during the next twelve months as the unfolding global recession reduces demand for oil.
Who knows in this market anymore. We could rally from here, or not stop until we hit 11,000. It was exactly a month ago yesterday that we hit the all time high of 14,164, now we're 1000pts down.
I think Black Friday retail sales results will be viewed as indicative of the consumer's strength, and IMO it's not good.
Another rate cut, might produce another one day rally, but year end reporting is probably going to be dismal.
"It was exactly a month ago yesterday that we hit the all time high of 14,164, now we're 1000pts down."
That high of 14,164 occurred after the summer credit crunch sent the Dow to about 12,500 in mid August. Some reasons we saw the rally to over 14k is that the Fed began easing starting with a 50 bps cut and the street made the assumption that the Financials threw the kitchen sink into third quarter earnings thus the worst of the credit crunch had passed (and we all lived happily ever after). The true reality of the credit crisis is beginning to set in and it is far from over. The Royal Bank of Scotland chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah in London has one of the most bearish views and IMO probably the most accurate.
"This credit crisis, when all is out, will see $250bn to $500bn of losses. The heat is on and it is inevitable that more players will have to revalue at least a decent portion" of assets they currently value "using 'mark-to-make believe'".
So far there have been about $50B in losses reported. The market has not priced in Mr. Janjuah's assumptions. Of course there is also the global growth story that clouds how the markets will react among a myriad of other factors. In other words I have no idea where the market is heading IMHO but this credit crisis thing ain't over.
My thoughts exactly, LA renter. I am an active trader, and was scared as hell to be in the market last week. All the technicals have broke down. I think there is a good chance either this monday or the monday after black friday will be a crash in the markets. The market has acted irrational for so long, we are way overdue for a significant drop.
My observation is that it seems like the markets are directionless. It will be bouncing +-500 points on every news of credit crunch, credit ok, gas crunch, gas etc.
Some of the stocks are all over the place. In Oct/Nov. Retail for example is extremely volatile these days. One stock that I move in and out of, Gymboree, was swinging all over the map. It started out around $34...Then all the bad news came out at retail, it went as low as $28..Then same stores numbers came out which were fine, and it's back to $34ish. There's no direction. The only thing I've been trying to do is move in and out of certain things on the volatility.
Like gymboree...20 trades this year and counting....
But for every one that I'm up at an instance in time, there a corresponding one that's down. Tech for example was hammered last week. Oh well, I still think we have and overreaction in the markets, but my opinions don't really count. We'll see what happens next week. I'm not foolish enough to say that the markets going to hit all time highs or come crashing down.
Chris Johnston
A low will be made sometime in the next 30 days either here or slightly lower, then a rally into years end to allow fund markups and bragging to fundholders of a good year.I doubt that rally will make new highs. Then a dip starting Mid Jan to Mid Feb probably back to about where we are here or slightly lower, into a significant low in March, and a big rally from there upwards in the election year. Even if we do not dip into March, that should be a major low point time wise to launch a nice advance so even if we have strength going into that date, it will still be a buy point. This current dip is a great buying opportunity, but I think a significant top will happen in 09.
I am looking for a signicant shorting opportunity for Bonds at the beginning of the year, but I will have to see if the fundamentals are lined up when we get there. I am sure this is not exactly correct, but it is what my analysis tells me to look for, I will make adjustments as necessary.
As of early morning it's back up 1% and over 13,000 again because Wal-Mart's "better-than-expected earnings hinted that consumer spending might be stronger than anticipated this holiday shopping season."
Don't get me wrong I'm glad to gain back a little ground that even my internationals lost, but you have to put this in perspective.
Wal-Mart starting slashing prices 2 months ago, where most retailers (WM included) usually wait until Thanksgiving weekend. You could argue all they did was move 4th quarter sales to the 3rd quarter.
cooprider14,
Wall street is back to being consistently directionless. Whew!
This thread is a good example of the wishful/bearish thinking on Piggington's. The DOW was up over 300 pts today. How about 13,300? But let me guess. We won't hear any positive commentary.
"This thread is a good example of the wishful/bearish thinking on Piggington's. The DOW was up over 300 pts today. How about 13,300? But let me guess. We won't hear any positive commentary."
i put my 401 back into janus the other day. hooray for apple.
positive enough?
It doesn't count when it's a rejoinder.
This thread is a good example of the wishful/bearish thinking on Piggington's. The DOW was up over 300 pts today. How about 13,300? But let me guess. We won't hear any positive commentary.
I'm pretty bullish about things, but I don't know, i feel sort of schizophrenic these days. I can't seem to make up my mind.
Page 4 of 20 ("G" List")
2/9/2007 Buy 200 $36.80 GYMBOREE CORP
2/9/2007 Buy 200 $36.80 GYMBOREE CORP
2/12/2007 Sell -42 $37.37 GYMBOREE CORP
2/12/2007 Sell -100 $37.37 GYMBOREE CORP
2/12/2007 Sell -100 $37.37 GYMBOREE CORP
2/12/2007 Sell -58 $37.37 GYMBOREE CORP
2/12/2007 Sell -100 $37.37 GYMBOREE CORP
8/9/2007 Buy 200 $36.66 GYMBOREE CORP
8/10/2007 Sell -100 $38.82 GYMBOREE CORP
8/10/2007 Sell -100 $38.84 GYMBOREE CORP
8/14/2007 Buy 100 $38.93 GYMBOREE CORP
8/14/2007 Buy 100 $38.95 GYMBOREE CORP
8/17/2007 Sell -155 $40.00 GYMBOREE CORP
8/17/2007 Sell -45 $40.00 GYMBOREE CORP
9/7/2007 Buy 200 $36.85 GYMBOREE CORP
9/19/2007 Sell -200 $40.05 GYMBOREE CORP
9/27/2007 Buy 100 $36.01 GYMBOREE CORP
9/27/2007 Buy 100 $36.01 GYMBOREE CORP
10/3/2007 Sell -200 $38.05 GYMBOREE CORP
10/4/2007 Buy 200 $36.97 GYMBOREE CORP
10/5/2007 Sell -49 $38.05 GYMBOREE CORP
10/5/2007 Sell -151 $38.05 GYMBOREE CORP
10/11/2007 Buy 200 $36.50 GYMBOREE CORP
10/11/2007 Sell -200 $38.50 GYMBOREE CORP
10/17/2007 Buy 200 $34.25 GYMBOREE CORP
10/19/2007 Buy 200 $33.24 GYMBOREE CORP
10/22/2007 Sell -200 $34.35 GYMBOREE CORP
11/1/2007 Buy 200 $31.45 GYMBOREE CORP
11/2/2007 Buy 100 $29.52 GYMBOREE CORP
11/2/2007 Buy 100 $29.51 GYMBOREE CORP
11/5/2007 Buy 100 $28.84 GYMBOREE CORP
11/5/2007 Buy 100 $28.83 GYMBOREE CORP
11/5/2007 Buy 100 $28.83 GYMBOREE CORP
11/6/2007 Sell -100 $31.52 GYMBOREE CORP
11/6/2007 Sell -100 $31.52 GYMBOREE CORP
11/6/2007 Sell -300 $30.00 GYMBOREE CORP
11/8/2007 Sell -150 $34.00 GYMBOREE CORP
11/8/2007 Sell -50 $34.00 GYMBOREE CORP
11/9/2007 Sell -200 $35.30 GYMBOREE CORP
11/12/2007 Sell -150 $36.30 GYMBOREE CORP
It's pretty much going a full circle for me. Really, I want to buy and hold long for a quality company. But, for the time being I'll take my $2 increments when I can get them... just playing right now to see if I can sort of beat the market in certain cases. Oh yeah, I'm going to have one heck of a hangover when comes tax time. I'm pretty sick of doing this. But I can't really get on the fence of going long time long completely now, or shorting completely either, and letting play money rot away isn't that exciting either.
Note: don't ask me for stock advice. I don't have a fvcking clue, and I'm pretty stupid when it comes to these things.
Bank stocks, anyone :) ?
I feel a little schizo about the stock market too.
In all the threads today, there is no discussion on the stock market. Weird.
Dollar becomes monopoly money and stocks all go up %%%%%%%%%%%
i found this quote from Barry Ritholtz on The Big Picture "The wild swings in the markets, +/- 2%, with violent up 200 or 300 point days don't typically come in healthy Bull markets -- these spasms are symbolic of Bear markets."
Housing bust intact, credit crisis intact, nothing really changed today. Rick Santelli really nailed it on CNBC today, he basically said the FED rate cut is not going to impact the credit crisis one iota. Much like the dotcom bubble and the bursting of this housing bubble, the markets will be buyoed artifically till all the big players recoup their losses. Then joe sixpack will be left holding the bag. Day traders are having a field day though.
I get it. Even when the market goes up 300 points it's bad news.
Yeah, bears are silly. But most bulls' arguments are no more compelling, at least for a 6 month outlook or so.
I guess throwing your hands up in the air and looking frazzled at the camera doesn't inspire confidence in potential investors, but I suspect that's where many investors' sentiments lie now.
Until we get our arms around this credit crisis these rallies are BS.
I'm up 40k today. (I won't mention the previous 50k down over the past few days).
On the brighter side, GYMB is doing a repurchase. Looks like we have another cycle of up days, followed by panic, followed by more volatility. Enjoy the rollercoaster ride.
Chris Johnston
These are the days I like to drop in here, big up or down days. On the big down days there is always a thread about the day, and big ups rarely if ever. I do not see anything wrong with that because in general this is a very bearish blog, which is fine. It is becoming an interesting study for me in sentiment. This is one of the most bearish places to study sentiment, so when the most bearish group gets the most bearish, that is an all out buy signal. Of course, the opposite would be true of a sell signal, the most bullish group getting excessively bullish. Excessive sentiment by the general public in either direction should be faded, the trick of course is knowing exactly when to do it.
I suspect the same thing will be true with housing, when the low is made I would wager that the general sentiment in here will be at it's most negative level ever. I do not know how to quantify that, but I think it will just be obvious when it happens.
Hey Chris as far as sentiment is concerned I can see your point on the stock market here but not so much on housing regarding this board. The thing I would be watching for is when the guy on the street becomes uber bearish on housing. This board is not your typical guy on the street general public. Many of us were all growling when joe public was drunk on the bubble. That euphoria they were bathing in was the market top. When those people are cranky and bearish will mark the bottom regarding sentiment. RE cycles also take much longer than stock market cycles so these people may be upset about housing for a prolonged period. Here is what I would watch for on this board, long time posters who were growling at the top fading from view. These are the people that have been ahead of the curve.
Good point LA renter!
Make sure when you are about to be "LA owner", let me know.
at the bottom I'll be busy buying and I won't be sharing my real estate advice for free on an anonymous blog
The Chris Johnston/Scoreboard couple is back... it seems like its been a while.
you said..."These are the days I like to drop in here, big up or down days."
you should have just said the big up days.. we have had a lot of big down days and haven't seen you around???
Its funny how he points out that there are very few posts on Pigs.com when the market is up, but a bunch when the market is down and in the same post, he shows that he does the exact same thing by only coming here and posting after the dow has had two big up days.
I haven't seen to many post(if any)from you while the dow has been falling 10% from its high. Its been how long since you've been a regular poster here? six months or so? I don't seen to many pigs trying to predict the equities markets, as this is mainly a housing site.
I agree that pigs have been bearish on housing, and I agree that they have been 100% right so far. I've seen pigs be short the dollar, which has played out sharply in the last 6 months. I've seen pigs be short RE, which has dropped sharply too. Even the pigs who have been short the market haven't done too bad, especially financial stocks and home builders. If this is one of the most bearish places to study market sentiment, then where do you study bullish sentiment? .. the fed reserve?? .. the NAR?? .. Kudlow and Company?
And the market sentiment thing keeps popping up to. So when everyone is bearish on housing, its time to buy right? Even when every fundamental says its going lower, right? I'd be curious to know Chris, what the sentiment is telling you about where housing is going? .. and the dow?
I've been consistently posting. When are you folks going to start bashing me? Come on, bring it on..
I did buy some banking stocks recently
C
CFC
BAC.
I'm getting killed in CFC (down $1/share).
C/BAC is pretty much no movement from my purchase price.
I'm guessing, no real market direction all the way to the end of this year.
I guess going long gold options makes me an ultra-bear? somehow that affects my opinion on real estate?
Just closed my position in December calls - bought 7 $750 calls in August - closed the position over the last two weeks for a gain of $43,200 - not bad return on the $2800 bet
I don't post trading advice for two reasons:
1. I think it is almost impossible for someone to make money following somebody else's trading advice
2. this is a real estate blog
~
I assume you are smart enough to understand that the current action in the equity markets is not healthy - if you don't understand this I feel sorry for anyone depending on you for financial matters
~
And I just remembered that Chris Scoreboar posted inre the price of gold more than once - in all cases, according to him, the price of gold had peaked and was headed back down - gold was in the $600s at that point if I remember correctly - guess I should have been short gold instead of long?
This topic started out being about predictions for the major equity indexes. For the record, I am predicting a year end rally in equities that will bring the indexes up over their recent October highs. It is a good time to buy financials.