San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Very much so.

I had to stop reading most economics blogs.

I'd be much better off drinking the same Kool-Aid as everyone else. You know, Green Shoots flavor.

It depends on who you read. Mish's blog is on the depressing side of things, because he starts off with the premise that modern economic theory is fundamentally wrong and nothing Obama & Bernanke do can possibly fix things. Therefore he intentionally overlooks or explains away any possible green shoots.

I see a huge dichotomy economy happening,

I know entrepreneurs and realtors having the most profitable year of their lives in 2009,

I know realtors who have not sold anything in 2009.

I know unemployed engineers having the worst year of their lives.

I see people starting new businesses and having tremendous success from the start,

I see people unemployed for over a year now and no closer to finding work that will replace the income they had in their last jobs.

In short, the future is what you make of it I guess.

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/nat...
WASHINGTON—After nearly four months of frank, honest, and open dialogue about the failing economy, a weary U.S. populace announced this week that it is once again ready to be lied to about the current state of the financial system.

Tired of hearing the grim truth about their economic future, Americans demanded that the bald-faced lies resume immediately, particularly whenever politicians feel the need to divulge another terrifying problem with Wall Street, the housing market, or any one of a hundred other ticking time bombs everyone was better off not knowing about.

One must be pragmatic in the real world. Planet Earth, no one gets out alive. Live your life accordingly. Deression is for people who want their mommy every time they dont get everything they ever wanted. Focusing on what you dont have, will not make it better.

Its funny you say that because if you watch Mish's youtube video at Google's "Free Lunch" he makes the statement "it is important to take your ques from what the market is doing not what you think it should be doing.

Plus the fact it has been stated by many pundents that he was one of the few that has a portfolio that grew last year. So he must be taking advantage of the green shoots.

Any suggetions as to other blogs?

CE

What is wrong with depression? It is definently not ppl that want their mommy when things get tough. I take some offence to that. I am quite content in this life with what I have. However, when you read what the future can become why wouldn't that get you down? When you see friends (smart driven individuals) sit on the sideline for years or modest families that can't support themselves (even when they understood thier means in life)... That is depressing.

I am considered a cold individual by some but even I have a little heart... You should too.

CE

I don't think there is anything to get depressed about. I have always had a distrust and aversion to the system and the knowlege that I am pretty powerless over it, so I don't understand much of what these experts are talking about anyway.They are still yapping so it isn't the end of the world. I find Rich pretty easy to follow and his content seems to be more meaningful to my existence. While I don't expect him to be right all the time, he seems trustworthy.

That said, I like the fact that the rest of us don't have reputations at stake. I find that what the steady and successful "non-experts" have to say carries just as much or more weight with me.

Nothing depressing in seeing the world like it is.

Try baselinescenario.com....Simon Johnson and James Kwak have put together something really special....great info that ususally has less bias....a bit over my head sometimes but thought provoking.

CE,
You are posing a completely different question here. The OP asks; "does what the experts say get you down" The second; "do you empathize with, or get depressed about those suffering due to the convulsions/changes in the economy, including ourselves if that is the case".

I think we should choose what we decide to call 'suffering" very carefully. I don't think being on the sidelines of the game of economic grandiosity should be included. Really struggling for food and shelter is another question of course.

These prognosticators are no more experts than you and me. If they were so sure of themselves, they would put their money where their mouth is and take on massive short positions in anticipation for major corrections south. As for getting depressed about these inept forecasts, remember Dale Carnegie once said, 99% of the things he worried about never happened.

But ppl said that Rich was crazy too for his forecast. He was on the money. Mish and some choice others have been too.

And as for ppl like Mish being smarter than me... Well at least in the realms of economics... He definetly is! :P

CE

He was heavily hedged against Great Depression, so his portfolio grew last year (2008) and early this year while the stock market was crashing, and it declined in Q2 2009 while the stock market was making double-digit gains.

Very true but I would rather see EOY performance over quartely. You can make anyone look bad on just 1 or 2 two quarters of performance data.

CE

It did not take much forethought to go all-cash in 2007 and wait for the storm to blow over. You would've gotten returns similar to Mish's hedged fund, avoiding the downside AND the upside.

At this point I'm more sympathetic to Warren Buffett. If you listened to this

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinio...

and invested into NASDAQ the following day, you would've made 25% on your money by now.

So are you more of a trader in nature? Honestly I don't have much in the market because I am scared of it...

A trader could make a killing. Me... I just want to give my money to someone to take care of it for me.

CE

Like someone mentioned in an earlier post I see contradicting economic indicators, and I have concluded the following:

1. In many ways I see us going down more or less the same path we did just prior to and during the depression. And we may exit the same way as well.

2. Stock market rally: A by-product of inflation

What do I see as 'real' barometers of the 'real' economy? Gold and unemployment.

Stay positive but stay realistic.

Do the blogs get me down? No, I use them as empowerment and motivation to prepare.

With respect to Gold,
Be wary the carry trade unwind .

And China is flooded with Credit and overcapacity.

(Very deflationary)

Just my thoughts of course.

Them blogs I use to keep an eye on low probability events. The bloggers like to fish in the deep ocean and every once in a while somebody gets it right and
becomes the guru de jour. I don't give any blogger credit for predicting this housing bust as it was in plain sight to anyone with an ounce of cynicism,

Au contraire,

They make me feel educated. What's more depressing - expecting bad things to happen and the do. Or expecting good things to happen, then being surprised when bad things happen ?

They help me prepare for my own future rather than sit idly by and be ignorant. This puts power in my own hands, which is just the opposite of depression, wherein people tend to sit by and let things happen to them.

I would say that human nature is averse to "negativity".

For example, on television, I would not mind more educational shows on travel, hunger, corruption, diseases, etc... But even when there are those shows, they tend to be more entertaining than educational. Too much education and they become boring college lectures and viewers would turn away. I always enjoyed school so it's not a problem for me. Most people, however, would rather have entertainment.

When you watch a movie, do you want a realistic "sad" ending or a happy ending?

I don't consider many of the predictions low probability; they just take longer to materialize than most think.

"I don't consider many of the predictions low probability; they just take longer to materialize than most think."

Longer than it takes a broken clock to be right in many cases.

Mi Amico,

very true... But remember last go around we saw good ppl lose their jobs. I do feel empowered when reading these blogs and it does give me the power to brace myself for the blow... But the blow still hurts... Whether you know its coming or not.

You cannot avoid the blow... that is what is depressing to me.

Then again whatever happens I can sit pretty for two years...

What is really depressing is tonight. I fear another down night at the poker table!

:P

CE

"The United States is not only not saving nuts, it's eating the ones left over from the last winter."

New York Times: U.S. Racing Toward Debt ‘Shock’

"A page one, top-of-the-fold New York Times report Monday warns that U.S. debt is rising so fast that the federal government is careening toward a 'payment shock' in the not-too-distant future."

"The Times lead headline read: 'Federal Government Faces Balloon in Debt Payments: At $700 Billion a Year, Cost Will Top Budgets for 2 Wars, Education, Energy.'”

"The Times headline appears eerie just as the Senate moves to push forward on a radical healthcare reform — with CBO estimates for a final bill costing nearly $1 trillion dollars over the next year."

It seems the people and businesses have stopped borrowing but the government isn't.

I was far more depressed back in 2006-2007 reading the buisness section of the paper than I am now reading Mish or piggington or whatever 'bear' blog you prefer. Back then I kept thinking, "I dont get it, could everything all my economic's teachers in college taught me be totally wrong???" and "How the hell am I the only one who isnt making a million dollars a year? Everyone seems to have so frakin much money. How do they do it??"

Now I read the news and while not happy news, it atleast confirms that I didnt waste those years in college and that the professors were not lying to me. Plus it serves as a nice bullwark against those 'happy' articles in the buisness section.

Funny I had the same reaction. I thought... hey I am making good money and I can't live the lifestyle everyone else has...

Then I started reading and found out about the miracle of credit!

The lights went on...

CE

Meanwhile, Bill Gross of Pimco has increased his fund’s holdings of US-government-related debt from 48 percent in September to 63 percent now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...

But hey, what does one of the most successful bond investors in history know?