San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Interesting read, except I am unfortunately not as optimistic because looking at what pulled America out the Great Depression I don't see such opportunity this time around. We're already at war, already predominantly dual house-hold incomes, and greatly reducing manufacturing jobs.

Apparently I'm not as optimistic as Wall Street either seeing as the Dow is up about 2% today despite a 1.1% jump in consumer prices for June alone, but that's basically the article's point.

Then again a close look at the Dow from 1928 to 1938 by no means gives reason to think today's jump means the bottom is behind us.

Dow '28-38

It's just a resection. The unemployment is too low. But, if there are more layoffs/out-sourcing or there's a banking collapse, we'll be there. BUT, I don't see that happening. Dubya is doing everything he can to correct his blunders...he doesn't want to take the title as "worst president ever" from Hoover.

WWII brought about full employment based on huge govt spending. By the end of WWII the USA had a debt greater than 50% of it's GDP. Historically speaking, we could go there again. The Fed is trying every trick in the book to get money moving, but it aint working....so if they cant get the private sector to spend, then they'll have to start spending themselves. Which is essentially what brought us out of the Great Depression. It makes sense, when things get really bad, the only people who will spend money are those that dont have to earn it.

Did you write this last year? Dubya is trying to cover his ass, but not correct his "blunders." The title is his.

peterb: I mentioned something similar to this on another thread when I said I thought we'd see a return to 1930s style WPA-type projects (i.e. infrastructure related goverment spending on a very large scale).

The US infrastructure is in a dire state, and it will probably take massive amounts of government spending (a la what occurred during FDR's reconstruction programs, WWII, or the Japanese government programs of the 1990s) to turn things around.

You're right, but they're spending already. In fact, I'd go as far to say they're spent.

And I agree with RP's statement that the Fed is a predatory lender.

I just don't see how we can expect today's rally to continue before they've even admitted we're IN a recession. Then again, maybe they never will. Which brings to question any government numbers, like the ones today that reported a "surprise" jump in oil inventory.

At least we'd see some tangible improvement to our infrastructure for the money spent... unlike the direct handouts along the lines of the Bear Stearns/JP Morgan deal. I'd rather see any "economic stimulus package" result in new roads and bridges and the jobs that would create. I'd rather see a WPA project than the ridiculous stimulus checks or a gas tax holiday.

"By the end of WWII the USA had a debt greater than 50% of it's GDP. "

US Debt = $9.5 Trillion.
US GDP = $13 Trillion.

That's roughly 75%.

There is no more debt to spend. The nation, like many home squatters, is financially insolvent.

We're already there. The minute you can't afford what you have been able to afford, you're in a depression.

I live in a 1950's home. The closet space is small, and small for a reason. Look at a home built in 2007. The closet is bigger than my master bedroom.

Well, chances are, I'll be able to keep my closet filled and most won't be able to keep their post 1990 closet filled. That's depression to many.

Maybe be are due for a New Deal type of initiative. But this time it should be focused on achieving energy independence.

There's really nowhere left to go but down. Uncle Sam is pretty much tapped out. More debt would crush the US Dollar and keeping Treasuries low decreses our ability to sell debt. What's left?

Maybe the govt could declare a tax free status to all alternative energy companies...stimulate an industry that's got a future?

I was trying to be diplomatic.

So basically what you all are saying is the next thing to happen is the return of Jesus Christ. Great another reason to stop making my house payment!

Thanks

"depression" talk comes up every time things get bumpy. This isn't a denial of the possibility,just an observation.

Bill Gross (of PIMCO fame) called for a big increase in Federal spending on infrastructure, etc. back in February - an interesting read for anyone on this thread.

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Ma...

May not be a depression, but something is radically changed, and in a short period of time. I've been out here visiting family for three weeks, and I have yet to stop once in any kind of traffic at all - at any time of day. I am right in Del Mar/Solana Beach area so my family says it is because of the new lane on the 5. I am not so sure. The difference from all the other years is so astounding. Same for beach parking. No problems. Just seems like a huge number of people have disappeared.

My family also kept saying "wait for the races to start" still nothing yesterday - nothing like the other years at all.

It is like rush hour traffic has just disappeared altogether, and much of the time i am driving down to Coronado or wherever to visit friends - the freeway reminds me of 1984 when I was learning to drive. Wide open.

I was back-n-forth several times between del mar & Encinitas one morning from 7am to 9:30 helping a family member and never saw any rush hour traffic at all. even last year that would have been stop and go going south.

maybe not a depression, but people are changing behaviors in a big way.

traffic is definitely down, no argument there...and I don't think it's due solely to the extra lane on the 5. But yesterday from 12-2, TRAFFIC WAS HORRIBLE! Made the mistake of going to Pipes in Solana Beach from my work location off of Del Mar Highlands...I FORGOT that the races started yesterday...pulled onto the 5 north and quickly realized my mistake. We had planned on going to Milton's but the offramp was backed up past Del Mar Heights.

But I do agree with your point...traffic is down for the most part.

I would say traffic is down somewhat but partially its due to school being out for the summer. I drive the 56 daily at 730am and its still packed every day. Its lighter due to schools being out. I also take it at 5-6 each evening and it backs up daily.

Unfortunately thats only one road. Try the 805 south from the 5 split in Sorrento at 5pm any weekday and let me know how it is.

Take the 15 south at the same time from mira mesa.