San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Del Sur is a big area and one has to distinguish between the different neighborhoods. In general, Mello Roos are high in both places but 4S Ranch feels more cramped and is less attractive in my opinion. Homes in DS are still overpriced compared to other neighborhoods such as Scripps Ranch.

Del Sur is a green community - steps were taken to make things draught tolerent, enviro friendly etc so I would suspect thats part of the higher prices.

Keep in mind that someday all that land between del sur and the new highschool will be developed. The master plan calls for shops and commercial space as well as a lot of other homes. There was supposed to be a golf course but I heard that was scrapped. If you go into Pasado, I believe they have a big land plot mockup there of the future.

From the website:

When completed, Del Sur will be one of the largest solar-powered communities in California. Water-saving measures like tank-less water heaters and weather-based irrigation will potentially save up to 40,000 gallons of water per home per year. And approximately 60% of Black Mountain Ranch’s 4,677 acres will forever remain open space for Del Sur residents to enjoy.

Sort of hijack but sort of related. Can folks please post some recommendations of some moderatively priced SFH communities in 4s and Del Sur... I have a relative that is considering buying a home down here in san diego. Preferably something around the 2000-2400sqft size.

The thing that concerns me about Del Sur, at least the newer communities there are the MR fees. Not cheap at all. It is just harder for me to reconcile that overhead to be honest. FLU I would advise your relative to try to get into either some of the short sales or get a new place because the standard resellers dont get it. The problem is that the builders have squeezed the releases into such small numbers that they have done a great job
creating demand out of nothing.

Neither

At this time it does not appear that the newer homes or short sales are going for much lower than resales.

mello roos:

older 4S (south of camino del norte), the rate was 0.5% based on home prices from 2002, so you could have homes with just $2500/year for a 3,000 sqft home.

newer 4S (north of samino del norte), the rate jumped to 0.75% based on home prices from 2006, so you might have homes with $6000/year for that 3,000 sqft home.

Del Sur, rate of course is pegged at 0.9% based on home prices from 2007, so now we are in the $7500/year range for that same 3,000 sqft home.

as for HOA, 4S homes are very uniform, we are looking at $100-150 in general. Del Sur we are looking at $250/month.

So older 4S may not have pool access, but the difference could mean a saving of up to $6800/year in mello roos/HOA cost.

A well done vinyl pool with spa can cost a homeowner ~$30k. that's 4 and a half years of that Del Sur surcharge.

That's true. The surcharges from DS are more than you can install those facilities in a house in 4S.

The areas around DS and 4S are draught tolerent, you don't see any big trees or big grassland on hill or canyon like Scripps. Scripps has wildfire often. DS has tankless water heater and solar panel but these prices are included in the housing price and property tax. Usually it is cheaper to hire outside vendors to do the jobs than the builders install them for you. It is just a matter of installing them by the builders or yourself.
Recycle water goes to 4S front yard and included in HOA and it saves water too. On enviro friendly, DS and 4S are the same.

I like DS to promote the eco friendly idea. But how many people are willing to pay for the costs ? like hybrid car, people find out they need to save 10 years on gas in order to compensate the extra cost to buy hybrid car than regular one. Leaders of the G8 leading industrial countries have agreed to try to limit global warming to just 2C (3.6F) above pre-industrial levels by 2050 ! 40 years from now.... china and India resist. Also, many lux cars parks around DS, not hybrid. The air around DS is fresher than 4S ?

More empty lands around DS for future developement. If it is golf course, surely DS price goes up. But if they build future houses, commercial or industry, will DS price go down?

Kensington at Del Sur just reduces the new house price from 700K to 650K early this week, PPSF is almost same in 4S.

correction: $144/month unless you live in cassero,
which are the attached homes, or in mandolin, which
are the new condos.

-mdk

some HOA in 4S are just $70-90, so HOA in DS is double at least. You pay what you get like pool, but HOA has no tax reduction. $70 more per month to step out of your house and use the facilities in DS or about $30 more per month to use facilities in LA Fitness ? trade off

We moved to San Diego a little more than a year ago. I used to look at this site daily for advice. We looked at pretty much every available home under 850 in 4S, Del Sur,Scripps and PQ (also some in CV). We chose 4S mainly because of the house we found, but we had ended up narrowing it down to South 4S for several reasons. I actually think South 4S is not as squished up as Del Sur. Del Sur felt very cramped to me unless you could spend over a million. Lots were VERY small over there. We actually have a very nice size lot that we could easily put a pool in. The streets in Del Sur seemd very narrow with cars parked everywhere. Here, it is not that way at all.

Our mello-roos are nasty, but still not near as bad as North 4s or Del Sur. They are about 3300 a year on a 3800 sq, foot house. I know many here wouldn't touch mello-roos with a 30 foot pole but, we just liked being in a newer, younger area. We felt like it was a compromise we were willling to make. Our HOA's are 75 a month. We joined the boys and girls club pool (here in 4S) for 250 for our whole family so we can swim. It has a water slide and splash park. I do wish 4S had a community pool, but that is my only big complaint about 4S.

Yes, Del Sur does have a more "green" concept, but you pay. Not every home is solar powered and you will pay a ton there to have the solar tiles. I can't remember how much, but it was a large amount we couldn't justify. The newer 4S homes will have the tankless water heaters just like Del Sur. Our home does not. We pay between 150 and 300 for electricity every month.

As far as location, I think 4S has a better location than Del Sur. We are under 5 minutes from the 15. (Although we are the closest part of 4S to the freeway in the Terreno tract). We are also closer to the 56 than Del Sur if we go over Black Mtn. It probably takes me 10 mintes to the 56. We looked out in Stonebridge (Scripps Ranch), and I think hubby's commute to Kearny Mesa would be longer if we lived out there. His commute is only about 20 minutes, much better than we thought. We are also closer to Carmel Mountain Ranch shopping than Del Sur. I'll admit, Del Sur is about 7 minutes closer to the beach if you go through Fairbanks Ranch. I go to the beach via Carmel Valley.

I don't get why people say it is so hot here. There is actually not a mountain in between 4S and the coast. On a SUPER clear day we can see a fraction of the ocean from our house (Del Mar). It gets hot, but I seldom use my AC. I am not lying. My house gets up to about 79 max. I'm from AZ so I can easily live with that.

I know that I wrote a book, but I felt like I had already looked at both areas extensively, and could give an honest heads up. Many here bag on 4S and Del Sur, but I am so happy with our choice. Love the school my son is at (Stone Ranch) and we have been very happy with our purchase. Good luck!

You can live Happy at 4S. Only realtors trying to sell homes in CV created those slogans like 4S is hot and Del Sur is more mello-roos to pay, so that folks can go easy on CV prices. But those homes in CV remained there as is where as many homes at 4S sold out and people took advantage of many short sales at 4s too.

I feel the new house price is more reasonable now in 4S and DS, probably more builders here, they compete each other and reduce the price.

In carmel valley, it seems only one builder Parde, no competition, no good for buyer. Their new house price don't change much and stay high. They have no guarantee for your kids to go to Torrey Pine high school because many people move there.

The good thing for CV houses is to keep the stable price but the appreciation rate is low.

Where they send them if people move to Torrey Pine high school zone? Is there any other school that can able to accomodate all these folks who are move in? I heard whoever goes to Pacific Highland ranch at CV homes would get Torrey Pine High School no matter those homes are just opposite to Canyon Crest HS.

We live in Del Mar, which is in the same high school district as Carmel Valley, and we have a daughter who's a freshman in high school so we just went through the high school drill.

In this area, there is a choice of district high schools - Canyon Crest Academy (CCA) or Torrey Pines (TPHS). Residents of the district can either enter the lottery for CCA (which has nothing to do with academic ability of students, but is solely based on space available, but over 90% are typically admitted) or a student can enroll directly at TPHS where there is no lottery system.

So, TPHS is the automatic default high school and is a sure thing as far as high school enrollment goes if someone lives in the Carmel Valley area; the only school that is not a sure thing is CCA, but again, with over 90% getting in through the lottery, chances are good that CV residents will have their choice of either high school.

The zone is not a matter or whoever lives closer to the high school area. Lottery is one way. The other way is first come first serve.

If you go to grab the new house price sheet from the builder in Pacific Highland Ranch, Manzanita Trail or Carriage Run, they mention no guarantee for your kids in Torrey Pine High School.

My friend put deposite in Manzanita Trail and after a week they dropped, and moved to 4S. CV school is attractive for the buyer even it is high in MR and HOA. People are still willing to move there. If no guarantee for the Torrey Pine high school, Poway school distirct is good option.

Well TPHS is only the best option there in CV(but not Canyon Crest). I heard at 4S there is brand new high school called "Delnorte" is opening this year. Don't you think this brand new would sure take at least 3 to 4 years to get stream line in the academics ?

I talked to several friends about the Del Norte High school opening in Sept 2009. It is more personal opinions and observations.

We saw many asians buying new houses in north of 4S recently, many young couples and family with young kids too. We heard they talked to the agents inside the sales office. The agent always asks where they work and their jobs, they work in IT, ucsd professor, PhD.... . We believe they have higher education and usually their kids have better score in school and activities.

The Del Norte high school surely needs several years to develop the fame. Also, it is new so we believe the school facility should be better and updated.

There are several misconceptions here -

1) Torrey Pines HS is THE default high school for Carmel Valley so your kids WILL be able to attend TPHS if you live in Carmel Valley, in any part of Carmel Valley serviced by the Del Mar Union School District (the elementary school district). You can easily verify this information and the district map on the school website, www.sduhsd.net. Maybe you're defining Carmel Valley differently than I am. There are neighborhoods farther east that some people still consider Carmel Valley close to Santaluz that are actually in the Poway school district (obviously, also an excellent district).

2) Canyon Crest Academy (CCA) is not at all a less desirable choice for residents of the district. To the contrary, many people prefer to have their kids attend CCA for a variety of reasons, never fearing that the academics are inferior. The CCA API scores are at the same level as TPHS (I think the API total is literally within one point), and the advantage to many kids is that CCA is a smaller school. There is a great focus on arts and sciences, with an arts conservatory program. There is no football team, which can be a plus if your kid is not an uber-athlete/jock type or a yay-rah cheerleader type. Still, their athletic teams are topnotch. It's also on the 4x4 class schedule, allowing kids to concentrate more on certain subjects and/or take a variety of electives. This can be very intense, but many kids love it. Just depends on what's best for your kids. Either school is great and CCA has just been open for 5 years (hence, they have amazing new facilities) and so their reputation is not yet as wide-reaching as TPHS.

True, new school needs time to establish fame. It all depends on the standard of people living around.

Trade off between CV and 4S. CV seems to guarantee house price and school district but you need to pay more. Appreciateion rate in CV is lower than 4S because CV has high value already. The housing price didn't drop much in CV. $650k can buy CV house around 1700 square feet and buy 3000 square feet in 4S now. Higher MR and HOA can keep well-finance and well-qualified people in the area especially under the strict bank rules now. You pay what you enjoy.

that high value in CV is not a safe guard, it is a worry when the second wave of prime/option arm hits.

Actually people from Encinitas also go to CCA.

CCA much like San Dieguito Academy in Encinitas serves as the lottery based school (meaning getting in is not automatic). LCC, like Torrey Pines is the default school for HS Students.

Certain parts of Rancho Bernardo apparently have a choice also about Camino Del Norte. My friends in Westview are opting for the new school instead of RB.

I took 4-5 trips to 4S Ranch this past 2-3 weeks for Little League events, which was at the extreme south part of the community. I really liked the open Carmel Valley road by the way. In fact I would go from Lomas Santa Fe through Fairbanks Ranch to get there, and since the ballfields were down at Dove creek anyway, I found it easier to go right off of San Dieguito. To each his own, I probably could've just done 56 to Camino Del Sur, to Carmel Valley road but I really like driving through RSF.

I kind of wanted to go through Santa Luz, but it was all gated, and I didn't care to sign in. Del Sur, I only made the drive around to 4S Ranch so I am not exactly sure what I missed. 4S was ok, but not really my cup of tea. I understand why some people like that kind of thing, and of course working in Kearney, I might think differently. It just seemed to plastic to me. I think in 10 years it should start resembling something like Eastern Encinitas (when the homes start needing some updates). I like that the prices are coming down, but that Mello Roos just kills it for me (not that I am in the market to buy). I did find the whole Black Mountain area through to be pretty nice (combining down to Santa Luz). A lot of parks, people out riding bikes, walking etc.

Why CV school is better? Please compare the API of CV and Poway high schools. From http://api.cde.ca.gov/reports/API/APISea...

2008:
PUSD High Schools
Mt. Carmel High 827
Poway High 845
Rancho Bernardo High 834
Westview High 843

San Dieguito High Schools:
Canyon Crest Academy 843
La Costa Canyon High 805
San Dieguito High Academy 810
Torrey Pines High 849

The average API of PUSD High is higher than San Dieguito High.

I wouldn't really mind to measure especially APIs of High schools when they are in close range. High school students generally easy on after 11th grade studies and some times many top knotch students may not even write those API calculated based exams in the senior years.

Well I agree there is no such a great hype in TPHS except it is peoples beleif ONLY. If you see all these schools are producing every year few fresh man to Harvard, Stanford, and other top schools.

Keeping in view of these I wonder why people don't consider Rancho Penaquitos 92129 area instead of only 4S and CV. I still love that Penasquitos and there are several good offers in other side of 56 where Intuit and other buildings starts, these prices are pretty much affordable to 4S price range and almost some times at par

here we are again, eventually we get into the same old debate about CV vs RB. Why oh why is CV so much pricier? It isn't the schools, they are the same caliber! so I guess it must be the weather and the proximity to the coast???

Let's take a look at a couple of recent closings:

3789 Torrey View Ct, San Diego, Ca 92130
--2414 sqft, 3 bed/3 bath on 4181 sqft lot
--07/10/2009: $750,000
--08/08/2003: $669,000
--10/28/1997: $329,000

11308 Monticook Ct, San Diego, CA 92127
--2414 sqft, 4 bed/3 bath on 9300 sqft lot
--05/20/2009: $627,000
--08/20/1997: $315,000
--11/12/1993: $289,075

hmmm, turns out back in 1997 these same sqft homes were virtually the same price. But now in 2009 they are $123,000 apart.

I did hear CV became MORE coastal over the last decade.

Just wanted to say that when we looked we did consider that area as well. There was little available by Intuit. The only house we liked basically backed up to the Prop 8 apartments, and we could hear the freeway. It was a no-go on that house. We would have been open to that area without a noisy lot (and not next to Prop 8 apartments).

New area always costs high MR. You pay what you get. There are many hiking trails and parks around 4S and Del Sur. Get the maps from Del Sur or 4S visitor centers. The recycle water system in 4S is another is issue. HOA is fair in 4S. HOA takes care of 4S front yards and it stops neighbours to build crazy things around their houses. All new construction outside a house needs to get approval from HOA. So, it can keep the value of the community. HOA is about $70 in 4S and $300 in Santa Luz. If no plastic planting and auto water system, I don't think you can see any big trees or grassland around in CA. CA is like a desert.

If you don't maintain your house well, surely you need some updates no matter 10 years or less. All builders only guarantee 10 years maintenance on new house. At least HOA can hold the community, but not the house inside. 10 years later, it may look from Eastern Encinitas. 30 years later, it may look like Mira mesa... it all depends on the location, school, maintenance and facility around.

I think that you meant Section 8. That's a Federal program and the money is administered locally by the local housing agency, in this case, the San Diego Housing Commission.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_8_(housing)

Promimity to Qualcomm main campus plays an important role in CV price, especially for the family with young kids.