Submitted by XBoxBoy on January 22, 2010 - 10:32am.
flu wrote:
The irony is the supreme court ruling on campaign contributions...I wonder which candidate the banks will be pushing for next election...
I would think the banks would push for Obama to be re-elected. After all, he's pretty much given them what they want. You don't think they're seriously threatened by his pronouncements of tough legislation do you?
Submitted by davelj on January 22, 2010 - 11:06am.
S&P 500 is about 30% overvalued. It's either going to head back down to 875-ish, or there won't be much return over the next 5-7 years. Either way, the S&P is a very bad bet from current levels. But it was a good long-term bet under 700.
Submitted by Arraya on January 22, 2010 - 11:55am.
It's all driven by emotional/irrational behavior which by human nature herds. This next down trend, if it indeed has started, should go throughout 2010 and overcorrect to the downside.
Submitted by davelj on January 22, 2010 - 12:00pm.
Arraya wrote:
It's all driven by emotional/irrational behavior which by human nature herds. This next down trend, if it indeed has started, should go throughout 2010 and overcorrect to the downside.
"Should" being the operative word. Lots of things that "should" happen in financial markets don't.
As Grantham has pointed out, the only certainty in all of finance is mean reversion - eventually. The degree to which assets should or shouldn't over-correct is pure speculation.
Submitted by Arraya on January 22, 2010 - 12:31pm.
davelj wrote:
Arraya wrote:
It's all driven by emotional/irrational behavior which by human nature herds. This next down trend, if it indeed has started, should go throughout 2010 and overcorrect to the downside.
"Should" being the operative word. Lots of things that "should" happen in financial markets don't.
As Grantham has pointed out, the only certainty in all of finance is mean reversion - eventually. The degree to which assets should or shouldn't over-correct is pure speculation.
No doubt, mean reversion is the only certainty. How fast it gets there and how far it overcorrects is another story. Should just indicates the most probabilistic outcome. Mean is another constantly moving target and to make things more complicated, fundamentals are on the subjective side.
The correction phase, however, *will* happen eventually.
he.. It *should* have started in the fall according to me.
IMO, the correction phase is inevitable and people will look for news to justify it, when in reality has little to nothing to do with it except maybe of the turning point but not the actual correction.
Economic fundamentals have been deteriorating and a stock correction will exacerbate the deterioration.
Submitted by investor on January 22, 2010 - 12:51pm.
I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best. Look to one ounce of gold to buy the dow.
I don’t know anymore, I am starting to warm up to the Idea of a double dip recession nowadays.
It's too early for the second dip, it's not supposed to come till Q3 or so.
Quote:
I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best.
Valuations should reflect future earnings, not current earnings. It's only OK to demand 14/1 if you don't think that the economy is going to recover any time soon.
The correction phase, however, *will* happen eventually.
How do you know that the largest part of the correction didn't already happen (when the S&P was almost 25% below fair value - albeit for a short period)? You generally seem more sure of everything than I am of anything.
Lots of companies have raised tons of capital in recent months, which puts a floor on whatever correction will take place. That's Reflexivity 101. I wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P revisit 750... but I think it's unlikely that it blows through the prior low of 666. But, I could be wrong - unlike you, my crystal ball is hazy.
What I do know is that the financial markets are designed to make folks bullish at the top, bearish at the bottom and confused in between. They are generally successful at that.
Submitted by 4plexowner on February 5, 2010 - 2:25pm.
Point & Figure chart of Dow
I've been playing with Point & Figure charts lately - they collapse volatility and make it easier to see the big picture
This chart looks a little funky because I've scrunched the bars together to get more data in - it goes back to '98
If the rally has now ended, it failed to retrace 61.8% of the previous decline - that might or might not mean anything but the 61.8% level would have been a more 'normal' place for a healthy pullback to occur
Using a Fibonacci expansion of the decline and the subsequent rally we can project to the downside and find some possible targets assuming the Dow continues down from here - 38.2% gets us to 7788 (there's support around 8100 as well) - 61.8% takes us to 5971 where we could bounce off the trendline going back to '98 - this is the same trendline that caught the Dow at 6600 last year - 100% takes us to Dow 3000
Submitted by scaredycat on February 5, 2010 - 5:51pm.
the human brain is wired to see patterns, even where none exist. it is our nature to see faces and ponies in the clouds, candles and shoulders in charts of stock prices, and our fate in the stars.
5,400
I don’t know anymore, I am starting to warm up to the Idea of a double dip recession nowadays.
I would think if we end up in a double dip deflation will be back big time, esp in commodities,
Scaredy you still long Gold ??
Seems a lot of the old gold bulls are even getting a little nervous on gold these days.
A little self doubt is healthy imo. Obama threatening the banks w/ more regulation is part of it too.
The irony is the supreme court ruling on campaign contributions...I wonder which candidate the banks will be pushing for next election...
I would think the banks would push for Obama to be re-elected. After all, he's pretty much given them what they want. You don't think they're seriously threatened by his pronouncements of tough legislation do you?
I personally don't see how he can legislate such stuff, he is suppose to be an expert on the constitution ,right!?
S&P 500 is about 30% overvalued. It's either going to head back down to 875-ish, or there won't be much return over the next 5-7 years. Either way, the S&P is a very bad bet from current levels. But it was a good long-term bet under 700.
Great graph at this link:
http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-re...
What's amazing to me is how long some of these periods of over- and under-valuation last.
Totally agree.
It's all driven by emotional/irrational behavior which by human nature herds. This next down trend, if it indeed has started, should go throughout 2010 and overcorrect to the downside.
lately my primary investments are in dental work. some gold involved there. but yeah, i still think gold as money has a future
"Should" being the operative word. Lots of things that "should" happen in financial markets don't.
As Grantham has pointed out, the only certainty in all of finance is mean reversion - eventually. The degree to which assets should or shouldn't over-correct is pure speculation.
"Should" being the operative word. Lots of things that "should" happen in financial markets don't.
As Grantham has pointed out, the only certainty in all of finance is mean reversion - eventually. The degree to which assets should or shouldn't over-correct is pure speculation.
No doubt, mean reversion is the only certainty. How fast it gets there and how far it overcorrects is another story. Should just indicates the most probabilistic outcome. Mean is another constantly moving target and to make things more complicated, fundamentals are on the subjective side.
The correction phase, however, *will* happen eventually.
he.. It *should* have started in the fall according to me.
IMO, the correction phase is inevitable and people will look for news to justify it, when in reality has little to nothing to do with it except maybe of the turning point but not the actual correction.
Economic fundamentals have been deteriorating and a stock correction will exacerbate the deterioration.
I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best. Look to one ounce of gold to buy the dow.
It's too early for the second dip, it's not supposed to come till Q3 or so.
Valuations should reflect future earnings, not current earnings. It's only OK to demand 14/1 if you don't think that the economy is going to recover any time soon.
Make that one pound and I'll agree with you.
Lol...
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodi...
$70 oil here we come...
The correction phase, however, *will* happen eventually.
How do you know that the largest part of the correction didn't already happen (when the S&P was almost 25% below fair value - albeit for a short period)? You generally seem more sure of everything than I am of anything.
Lots of companies have raised tons of capital in recent months, which puts a floor on whatever correction will take place. That's Reflexivity 101. I wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P revisit 750... but I think it's unlikely that it blows through the prior low of 666. But, I could be wrong - unlike you, my crystal ball is hazy.
What I do know is that the financial markets are designed to make folks bullish at the top, bearish at the bottom and confused in between. They are generally successful at that.
"*will* happen eventually."
Yeah, eventually(rolling eyes). I guess we don't want to put a date out there like Mr. Mortgage so the world can see how utterly wrong we were.
http://piggington.com/foreclosures_comin...
I predict the DOW will fall below 10,000 today. Of course I could be wrong, but that would violate rule #1.
Looks like you are correct:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=DOW
;-)
Well, well, well... looks like the bear may be back
I'm waiting for at least 9000
To far below 9800 and the next avalance is released, bounce on 9800 and you get another nice buy rally.
I've been playing with Point & Figure charts lately - they collapse volatility and make it easier to see the big picture
This chart looks a little funky because I've scrunched the bars together to get more data in - it goes back to '98
If the rally has now ended, it failed to retrace 61.8% of the previous decline - that might or might not mean anything but the 61.8% level would have been a more 'normal' place for a healthy pullback to occur
Using a Fibonacci expansion of the decline and the subsequent rally we can project to the downside and find some possible targets assuming the Dow continues down from here - 38.2% gets us to 7788 (there's support around 8100 as well) - 61.8% takes us to 5971 where we could bounce off the trendline going back to '98 - this is the same trendline that caught the Dow at 6600 last year - 100% takes us to Dow 3000
Using a Fibonacci expansion of the decline and the subsequent rally we can project to the downside and find some possible targets [cut off]
I checked my dogs' poopie and it suggested 750 on the S&P before the end of the year. But their poopie has led me astray before. That and it smells.
davelj, which one of us is retired long before age 50 and which one of us is still working?
More interesting question:
Which one of the two internet personas tells the truth?
the human brain is wired to see patterns, even where none exist. it is our nature to see faces and ponies in the clouds, candles and shoulders in charts of stock prices, and our fate in the stars.
Your handle would indicate that you are a property investor.
That does not qualify as retired.
Doing Fibonacci expansions all day sounds like hard work. Not how I want to retire.
Using a Fibonacci expansion of the decline and the subsequent rally we can project to the downside and find some possible targets [cut off]
I checked my dogs' poopie and it suggested 750 on the S&P before the end of the year. But their poopie has led me astray before. That and it smells.
ROTFLAO...
(4plex, no offense to you or anything. But it was pretty funny for me...)
I thought market movements in the short term were more about sentiments than anything else, like the impending demise of europe. :)
I'm going to take a chance and buy some chevron shares if it hits below 70ies...Seemed to me pretty wacked recently. What do I know though.