Consequences of fall/winter buying season

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Submitted by yellow8yellowm on May 12, 2008 - 9:02pm

I have always thought that winter was the best time to buy a house. Can anybody give me any reason why I'm wrong?

In my mind, the only problem with trying to buy in the winter is that there are less houses to choose from. But does this also mean that there are less bargains to choose from?

The reason I am asking is because I have to buy by the end of the year (don't ask me why, please, and yes, I know it will probably lose me money) and I want to get the best deal possible (To word it differently, I want to make the least bad investment).

Thanks,
yellow8

‹ Shadow inventory Mr. Mortgage? ›
What are you trying to buy
Submitted by Rustico on May 12, 2008 - 9:38pm.

What are you trying to buy and where? Some areas are doing bad and if you wanted a fixer you might do alright there or could get started making low ball offers anyway. If you are looking for a neighborhood that is having relatively strong sales activity and a move in ready house, start looking at houses with the best comparable list prices and most market time in July to get your finger on the pulse of your target market and target home type.Watch out for price reductions and jump quickly and/or drop tons of low balls and check back every couple of weeks.
I don't know if it will work out this way but I think it gives you the best odds of the least worst deal for 2008.Dare I say it? depending on where and what, you might even get a good deal period.You might not want to do all that and just find a house you like and buy it. Either way, waiting until later in the year should work out better price-wise.

I'm thinking of buying
Submitted by yellow8yellowm on May 12, 2008 - 10:21pm.

I'm thinking of buying something under 550K in one of three areas:

1. South Escondido somewhere off of Via Rancho Parkway either on the west or the east side. I like the one's from the 1970's with the big lots that make you feel like you're almost in the country.

2. Rancho Penasquitos/Rancho Bernardo/Poway. Hopefully a bigger lot, but in these spots I'd sacrifice the lot size for location (I work in Sorrento Valley).

3. Scripps Ranch. An even bigger sacrifice of size for location. Don't want to do it, but if it's a good enough deal I could pull the trigger.

You pretty much had it right
Submitted by SD Realtor on May 12, 2008 - 11:36pm.

You pretty much had it right with respect to the time of year cycle... I actually believe the "best" time in an annual cycle may be the July-September timeframe. I feel that way because you have the spring washouts (that didn't sell because they priced poorly or have cruddy homes), and you have all the other people who lagged on listing in the spring and now are rushing to list prior to the end of the summer, so you have not totally lost all the inventory yet. However you still have the desperation factor as well so you kind of get the best of both worlds. By the time winter comes you do have alot of more desperate sellers but definitely not as much inventory... Not sure if that matters alot though...

Now one thing you need to think about as well... because of your relatively quick timeframe, a huge consequence to you will be the 10 year treasury yield. My point here is that if you really do "have" to buy before the year is out, the rate you get on your loan will have much more bearing then the price you pay for your home. That is because between now and the end of the year, I don't think you will see a drastic differential in price in the areas you mentioned.

I guess also then alot of what I just said kind of depends on your ratio of financing to cash you are coming in with.

It goes without saying that you can get some decent size lots off of Via Rancho Pkwy. I have a client who has been looking around out near the San Pasqual Valley and such... There is a ton of stuff and some fairly nice places with nice amounts of land starting to get near the price range you have mentioned. There is ALSO a TON of more beater homes with big lots out there as well.

As far as Scripps/PQ/Poway/RB go, you can find places in the price range in these areas as well...Scripps will be tougher then the other 3 but there are some smaller places available. Poway and RB you have a pretty decent selection... PQ not so much...

SD Realtor

Similar to the topic, what
Submitted by joec on May 13, 2008 - 7:02am.

Similar to the topic, what would be a more ideal time when buying new construction? Since the developments are known already, it's more based on a builder's release schedule. I'm assuming after the fall school year starts, that'd be a better time since most folks won't want to move during the holidays.

I looked up the 10 year
Submitted by yellow8yellowm on May 14, 2008 - 3:59pm.

I looked up the 10 year treasury yields but realized that I have no idea how this relates to actual 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Are they actualy linked? If so, how am I going to know in advance if they are going to go up or down? Or are you just saying to watch out in case they start to move quickly in one direction or another?

Thanks,
yellow8

Now one thing you need to think about as well... because of your relatively quick timeframe, a huge consequence to you will be the 10 year treasury yield.