San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

WOW! PPSF: $128

That is a comp killer!

Isn't there some question as to what sales are included in appraisals? I thought there was some effort in some quarters to ignore the types of sales that produce very low numbers. Maybe I am just paranoid.

I was wondering the same thing. This home's quality was similar to the other 6-9 foreclosures that will be coming through the pipeline on the same street, if not better.
I walked through this house and it was in great shape except for the yard being fried and the stove gone. For a foreclosure it looked fine.
I called the realtor because it came on the market in May and didn't sell till now. It was a cash deal. She said the first offer fell through. It seems a little suspect that 30 people wouldn't have made offers over the summer and bid the price up????

It seems a little suspect

1. Bank Owned

2. Cash Deal

3. My suspicion: Buyer's agent = seller's or related?

Very fishy

Aren't the servicers checking for hanky-panky on forced sales? If not, why aren't they? What's their financial incentive on a forced sale?

The best way to get a good deal in this market is to sleep with the listing agent ...

The litmus test would be to put in some offers at 128/sq feet on other homes in that area and see if they hit. Say, aren't you looking for a house?

Yes we are looking for a home. $128 sq ft was my dream price per sq ft. Only $60 off what they are currently selling for. :) My goal was to pay $140-$150 this winter. Just about every other house on that particular street is in pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank owned so it seems that is where the price will end up.
As an anecdotal side note...the new owners were moving in on Sat as we were looking at the short sales next door and they were the same ethnicity as the listing agent. The family deal crossed my mind.

outtamojo- Weren't you guys looking in SEH? Did you already buy?

Why not put in an offer at $130/ppsf?

Oh that's right....I am willing to be you can't get one of those so called expert real estate agents to put one in for that low?

You know those experts that told us that real estate was just going to go up in 07? You know the ones who have no incentive to encourage a higher offer?

Or could it be our expert and non-conflicted appraisers? Those hard working souls who took all of 30 seconds to sign off on ZILLOW.COM'S well thought out apprasials.

Real Estate is exactly what someone is willing to pay. Is has been well established on this board that the price you pay is up to you! The forces (some tell me) are far more superior to our individual observations.

Nope, the more I see is a snow job. Any broker that tries to put in low ball offers are laughed out or riduculed out of business. Meanwhile all the A**ho*** would have you believe that a house has some emperical price point. Nevermind the TRILLONS of dollars propping this whole farce up. IF THE BANKS DID NOT GET THE TARP - AND IF MARK TO MARKET ACCOUNTING WERE IN PLACE, if the FED DID NOT LEND TRILLIONS of $$ manufactured out of THIN AIR ...we would see 1999 prices in SD county.

So the "salty dogs" will reply...."Come on aldante...get with reality TARP and mark-to-market are the new reality...if you want to make money you have to accept what reality is". You know the guys/gals who would have you believe even today that you "better get in while the getting is good" becasue home prices are going up from here. Problem with that is that TARP and non-mark-to-market are illusions....and as will all illlusions they will disapper. And guess who is left holding the bag........that salty-dog real estate agent? That mortgage broker? The apprasier (who now has gotten religion?).......Nope you guessed it....the poor slob who now owns real estate at twice it's price who will be taxed 3 or 4 times its current level.

COMP killer...nope....the sign of more to come.

Nope the new potential homeowners have one opportunity to get a good price and that is what they sign their name to on the contract. Quit listening to the "experts" who got us into this mess. Listen to your own balance sheet and your own income statement. Nothing else.

ALL above is IMHO.

Yeah, SEH my target area-don't wanna tell anyone if I bot already or not, cyberstalkers you know-I use Outtamojo for a long time, on many forums some very heated : ) As for your house search, let me guess: you told your realtor you wanted to look for bargains- reo's, short sales and stuff. So, he/she drags you down to Questhaven area of SEH, where entire streets are for sale. You post this on SDL and they say yeah you can't make this stuff up yada yada. Your bearishness is thus "confirmed". Ok, what if you tell me you want to see some really sick people. I drag you to a hospice. Will you then conclude that we are all about to die? I could give you a tour of my hood of about 140 some-odd homes :1 has a for sale sign, 1 is abandoned. Shadow inventory to come out where I live? Hah, that would just return us to NORMAL for-sale levels. Anyway, my point is, when I started looking, I thought they would practically GIVE me the house-until I actually started making offers. If this trade war gets outta hand you may get your $128 sq/ft home but until then, I would try to balance the responses you get from your written offers with whatever the perma bears project.

My realtor didn't need to drag me down there to see distressed houses because I live here and know a lot of the distressed homeowners personally. The ironic thing was that we both had a huge list and we both had many homes that weren't on each others list.

We won't make any offers until October. I would like to wait until the $8,000 tax credit expires or wait to see if it turns into $15,000. There are also about 20 homes to be auctioned this month so I would like to wait and see if that actually happens.

We will probably make our offers in Nov/Dec. To even attempt an offer like that we will need the Tax credit expired/holidays. My feelings aren't going to be hurt if the bank says no. My strategy is to give it a try this winter. If it doesn't happen we'll simply pay more in the spring. I can't ignore that prices have statistically fallen 10% every winter for the last 4 years after a spring/summer bounce.

Propertysearchaddiction
Make the offers between mid Oct and late Nov. I'm sure your agent probably told oyu this already but December is generally too late for the best deals.