San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Gold in hand feels good; tangible. Oil in hand might be toxic.

Gold coin safety from theft

Is my main concern- even with a vault/safe I would be worried if I was robbed and all the gold was stolen. What ETF funds are best for gold investment? I am also interested in oil based ETF or index funds.

I have an IRA so I have been purchasing GLD (ETF) and feel as though it's due to really take off in the next 6-18 months. It depends what your investment source is...if you have a ton of cash then bullion would be the way to go or you can mix and match with ETFs.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around whether or not to buy stocks too.

The bullion can be purchased and held for you and you own a certificate. Contact a company called Monex, they're top-notch when it comes to bullion and their service is great.

For ETFs check out...GLD, IAU and GDX.

If you really believe the dollar will fall to zero, then I think the only sensible investments are a large ranch in the middle of nowhere, guns, and a large pack of guard dogs. Really...if dollar ever goes to "zero", your "investment strategy" really is not going to matter much...

If you think the dollar is going to keep losing value (not to zero, but maybe another 50% decline relative to euro, etc.), then invest in companies with earnings in currencies other than dollars, and yes the gold stuff and black stuff are nice too.

I use Vanguard international index funds for my overseas exposure (and I've had about 40% of my tiny but growing portfolio overseas since the mid 90's). Emerging markets actually look extremely frothy to me right now. I don't know about p/e ratios, but just looking at the share prices, it looks like nasdaq circa '99.

Interestingly, looking at share prices, the vanguard small cap value index is down 5% for the year, while emerging markets index is up about 40%. If there were a further dramatic dollar decline, I suppose domestic small cap value stocks are exactly the last thing you would want to own (other than a long term bond). So, maybe the market is sharing your perspective.....

The good thing about MONEX is you receive as of the current rate 5% interest on your money if it sits in the account while you wait to buy the gold. The bad news is the spread between the bid and ask price can be rather large at times plus the commission if you trade often. I think you’re OK if you hold it for the long haul which should more than makeup for the carrying costs. Closing the gap on the spot price is difficult due to the greed involved with brokerages.

Brian, you're a smart guy, thanks for sharing your views. I hope that the OP's outlandish remarks were made tongue-in-cheek.

If you truly think the dollar is goind down to zero, you should be buying real estate in San Diego right now!

We can convert our food stamps to gold and stand in line for soup.

When it all turns around we'll be rich and lean!

If you think the dollar is going to zero, save most of your money to pay for a psychiatrist. Take what is left over and short the dollar index directly in the futures markets. It is the purest play there is against the value of the dollar.

OPEC and Venezuela moving away from dollar to euro

My fear is not ill founded- with OPEC, Iran, and Venezuela supporting the euro it will cause an eventual collapse of the dollar and rise of the amero as the global elite want.

When gas is $9 a gallon then you can bet it will cause pain.

"If you think the dollar is going to zero, save most of your money to pay for a psychiatrist."

Do you think that was constructive Chris? Is this shift towards the positive that you want to see supposed to be on a selective basis? It looks like you just came over here to kick someone.

mixxalot - I have read that 0.60 might be where the dollar is headed over the next 2 or 3 years - current level is around 0.76 so 0.60 represents a 21% decline - all of the central banks are in a race to devalue their currencies - Google 'competitive devaluation' if you want to read more - I'm not sure what prize awaits the first currency to reach zero but it must be a good one - US currently expanding money supply by about 17% per year according to reconstructed M3 numbers (http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html)

tons of stuff in the archives about gold - I hold GLD, SLV and CEF in my 401K (stopped out of NG recently)

George Ure (www.urbansurvival.com) has suggested in the past that one could plan a trading strategy around the idea of competitive devaluations - understand that all central banks are in a devaluation race (ie, managing their currencies downward) and trade the commodity markets accordingly - I got a very good entry into some March 2008 call options on the corn futures market by waiting for a day when the dollar rallied and corn over-reacted on the downside

Here's a few paras from a website: http://www.honestmoneyreport.com/archive...

It has been pointed in out in the media that one of the initial reasons that gold goes up is because the currency it is priced in (U.S. dollars) is experiencing devaluation.

In other words, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar is falling, causing more units of money (quantity) or a higher price, needed to buy gold. This is also known as currency debasement, a.k.a. inflation.

However, there is not a one-to-one causal ratio between currency devaluation and the increase in the price of gold as denominated in that same currency.

For example, the price of gold in U.S. dollar bills has increased from a low of $257 in 2001, to a recent high of $475.50 in 2005. This represents an increase of approximately 86%.

During the same 4-year span of time (2001-2005), the U.S. dollar has fallen approximately 33%. This means the price of gold has gone up 2.6 times more compared to the rate the dollar has gone down. Clearly there is more involved then just the existing devaluation of the reserve currency.

"If you think the dollar is going to zero, save most of your money to pay for a psychiatrist."

Do you think that was constructive Chris? Is this shift towards the positive that you want to see supposed to be on a selective basis? It looks like you just came over here to kick someone.

Come on. He offered a very clear, solid pure play recommendation immediately following the sentence quoted above. What's wrong with a bit of satire tossed in here and there ?

You have no clue on what is really going on.

I have watched the fall of dollar in past 10 years and rise of gold and oil. When you money is worthless let me know how it works out for you. Until then I will invest in gold and avoid losing my savings.

The dollar will never be zero because it will always have some use.. it can be burned to keep warm, shredded to fill the bottom of hamster cages, or maybe even fed to horses when their owners go broke.

I guess I was taking a swipe at someone who was being excessively negative, so my apologies. It is why I just don't belong here.

Anyone with any common sense knows that this could only happen if we were wiped off the face of the earth, so to ask an investment question surrounding an impossible event seemed worthy of an overhand right.

It is shocking that anyone could defend that type of post, so be it.

It will convert to the Amero when the American union is created with Canada and Mexico unless the global elite are stopped. Then it will be worthless paper.

I feel ambivalent about belonging here Chris. It seems like you do too. Hang in there.

It is interesting how many Armageddon-believers post here, Chris. But there are also more middle-of-the-road types, such as sdr, SDR, Rusty, and many more less vocal people.

Until a few years ago, I used to get frustrated with people who had extreme views that didn't seem to be based on facts. Then I began to realize that they provided more opportunity for me to make money. Now I'm happy to see this behavior because I occasionally take advantage of it.

Patient renter in OC