San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

I believe the land values will continue to fall at Cielo. I know of several examples of people who purchased lots in 2003 and held onto them rather then letting them go at the peak. As you noted there is a large overhang of inventory for the lots there. Many of the people who did this do seem to have resources that allow them to hang onto the lots however. In some cases though you will see people let them go cheap if you have enough patience. I believe the lot values there could come down another 20% over the next few years if you can wait that long.

SD Realtor

Cielo is one of the newer RSF gated communities I have been considering and so have spent quite a bit of time there, so here is a core dump of what I know about it.

Like any newer community during the downturn, original development velocity has slowed to a crawl. The master plan for Cielo calls for quite a bit more development.

Among that slowing is the shopping center and I would not expect it to be attracting tenants until the downturn is over. It's concept anticipated full development so the existing community may or may not be able to support it. At least its entrance is before the gates so other locals can use it, even folks from the Crosby accross the way. I think that shopping center is one of the best things about Cielo and will be a huge selling point when fully occupied. Other communities don't have that convenience. It was well built and has room for a variety of tenants, but you won't see them for a while.

The community itself is very nice. One issue I have with it is that the quality of homes varies a fair amount, from moderate quality build (and in some cases very low quality) McMansion spec homes to high quality custom homes. Davidson built a number of spec homes, and while they are not the highest end, for the most part those are pretty good. A few other builders put up some poorly designed, poorly executed homes, however. Those will no doubt impact values. So when looking for a home there, I find out the builder and look carefully at build quality. I have seen outstanding build quality and execution and very bad quality and execution in homes I have toured, often for two homes selling for the same price. So that is a buyer beware statement.

If you are looking for a lot, I suggest you tour some homes there to get this feeling for differences and build quality and then contact one of the builders of the high quality homes. I expect you could get a great deal for a lot to build on in this market.

Generally, the lots higher up are considered more prime, more expenisve, more desirable, with larger, nicer, and more expensive homes. However, I found the extra work to climb up to those upper elevations of Cielo, not worth the added views.

While Cielo is all about the amazing views, there are great views and good quality homes to be had lower down without having to add 10-15 min of time to any trip just to get out of the community. But lower down you do see more of the variation in quality than higher up, though there are a couple houses on the market now that are higher up that are horrible build quality and/or execution IMHO.

If you want a vacant lot, however, they are now only available at the upper elevations. Not all homes or lots in Cielo have views however, and some are better than others. I would never buy a home or lot in Cielo without a great view. To me it would be worth a fraction of one with a view. Cielo is all about the views and that is the big niche Cielo has. Take that away, and it is not such a good investment. Note that if you buy a lot, you should check the nearby lot positions and imagine a 2 story house on them and what that would do to your view. I know a few owners did not consider that. Your view might just get swallowed up by a neighbor. I toured one house high up that I went back to 6 months later to find the great view blocked by a new build.

Beyond the homes, Cielo has a lot of nice qualities. It has an excellent club with a huge olympic size swimming pool, area for massive parties, tennis courts, fitness center, community center and event center. The best thing about it is that it is free! (well, covered by your HOA fees anyway, which are reasonable). It is also on the lower part of the community. They also have a beach volley ball court, basketball court, play ground and walking trails.

The community is also a shelter-n-place community, which proved itself during the fires as they burned right through the middle of Cielo with not a single house burning down. I went there right after and saw burnt-to-a-crisp vegitation right up to about 30 feet from the fire line of many homes, only to find the homes and their yards still pristine, save for the occasional char mark from flying cinders.

The gate area is very well executed and the guards about the same as the Crosby and Santaluz or the Bridges in "strictness", better than at RSF Farms, but no where near as serious as the ones at Fairbanks Ranch. Funny, I have really gotten a feel for the guards at all these communites. I even know them by name now.

One nit a lot of people have about Cielo is that it is a bit isolated. Del Dios is a parking lot during commute hours. The closest real shopping is either in Escondido or the Village of RSF. You can not access 56 very easily, unless you belong to the Crosby club so can cut through to its south gate, but even then you would have to drive through Del Sur and Santaluz to get to 56. I don't think it is as bad as people say, but I am comming from commute hell. I did drive to Cielo once during rush hour from Carmel Valley (the commercial part) and it took about 15-17 minutes.

Another nit is that folks tend to consider it the least desirable of the gated RSF communities. There are a few other Gated communites in RSF that you don't hear about very often, such as the nearby Summit, that I think are no where near as nice as Cielo. But, yes, I suppose the Crosby, Bridges, and certainly Fairbanks Ranch, are nicer. However, there is not one gated community in San Diego that can match the views Cielo offers. If you want views, that is the place to go.

Another possible issue is that not all homes in Cielo are in the RSF school district. Some of the higher elevation and easterly homes are in the Escondido school district, which are not as good as those in the RSF school district.

Finally, Cielo is one of those communities that would not be part of the town of RSF if the Covenant mafia (and I mean that affectionately) has their way and incorporates RSF. I find that neither hear nore there as Cielo will not likely get incorporated into Escondido and will likely remain unincorporated and still benifit from the RSF zip code and the school district will not redraw district lines I figure.

With all the above said, prices in Cielo should be, on a per square foot basis, lower than any other part of RSF, so comp accordingly, even for land. A 6k sf home in Cielo is not the same as one in Fairbanks Ranch or the Bridges or the Covenant, or even Santaluz. This has to do with its location and the quality variety I mentioned above and general perceptions about the place.

So IMHO, Cielo is the best place to find a deal and still get a great home with an amazing view in RSF. Any place where there are still building is going to suffer more in a downturn and so is a great opportunity. Unfortunately, I have found that both sellers and their agents in Cielo have an overinflated sense of value for homes there and I finally gave up on considering the place. In fact, the most unreasonble and overinflated seller I have encoutnred to date is there.

While Cielo is not my favorite RSF community, I really do like it and would be happy to live there. One of my favorite homes is located there, but I am focusing on my top choice areas right now.

I hope this helped and good luck with your decision.

Thanks for your in depth and insightful commentary. I will post as my due diligence uncovers more issues of interest. Thanks again.

I should note that RSF has roughly 50 "communities" that have a particular name, many, if not most, of which are gated and Cielo is in my top 5 among the gated communities, behind only Fairbanks Ranch, Diegueno Hills, the Crosby, and The Bridges overall, though, for my needs/tastes, I think I would pick living in Cielo over The Bridges and perhaps, depending on the home, The Crosby. My second favorite overall gated community, Santaluz, is not in RSF.

Of course I also don't include those gated communities that are out of my $$ league and thus that they won't even let me visit, like Tuscan Estates, River Estates, and Roxbury Estates.

Cielo is a nice development however it is not Rancho Santa Fe. Its truly Rancho Bernardo. The developers were some how able to get the RSF zip code. This occurred at the height of the RE frenzy of course. The lot values will without a doubt drop in value in the coming years.

Be patient... The party is just starting.

Does anyone have a guess as to the percentage increase in land values over the original selling price? I am told that the initial offering sold out in 36 hrs in 2003. I also understand that the parent company either has or is preparing to release another 50+ homesites on higher terrain above the original development. This cant bode well for existing lot owners. Also, the fact that 5yrs after opening the vast majority of this development remains empty dirt is a definite neg IMHO. Even if I bought a lot at fire sale pricing tomorrow my quality of living and resalevalue have got to be significantly lowered by the empty dirt everywhere. I think you need a 5-10 yr horizon and a lot of patience to consider building here IMHO. Thoughts?

I don't know about your question on the numbers with respect to value etc, but I personally don't get the value proposition of the higher elevation lots. They are indeed considered more valuable. But it takes so long to get up to the 1,400' elevation and the views so vast as to loose the intricacy of detail, that I would never buy that high up. Down below, you have existing homes with amazing views, but not so high that you loose the detail, or so inconvenient that you dred the drive up to your house, particularly in the rain.

I saw a few amazing high quality homes up high, but preferred the very good quality homes below that I liked as striking a nice balance between view and convenience.

But then again, when I consdidered purchasing there, it was not as an investment, but as a long term home. Of course, life brings surprises so appreciation is still important to me, so I would expect your point to indeed contribute to the price pressures there. Which is one reason why I have been careful with offer prices there.

Sellers there, they seem to think the opposite of privatebanker that Cielo is not RSF and appear to feel that only Cielo is RSF with the prices they are asking right now, which really stand out as overpriced when you compare them to similarly sized homes in other parts of RSF (whether real or imagined).

I'm not sure higher is better either. But the developer certainly has a lower cost basis with regard to retail pricing and can sweeten the pot with incentives unlike the lot speculators. Also generally more supply can only depress prices further. This will be a spectacular place to live in 15yrs but right now seems like driving thru a quarry in my uneducated opinion. Your commentary on the pricing attitude of Cielo sellers is spot on.