San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Is this is a home actually on Christmas Lane, or a side street. Because if it's actually on mainstream Christmas Lane.....with all due respect, have you considered the implications of buying a home on Christmas Lane?

I mean, unless you are really really into it, do you really want to deal with putting up the decorations, having a block party and dealing with visitors almost everyday during the winter holiday err I mean Christmas?

Some people are really into it, but for others, this might be fun the first year or two, but imagine if you really aren't into it and have to put up with it every year. Just think about the traffic, parking, getting in and out of your home...Your neighbors outside every night for awhile.

Not trying to burst your bubble. Just something to consider...If you're the type of person that likes this stuff, great. Not everyone would want to deal with it... In theory, you can be also a scrooge and not put up anything up, turn off the lights, and avoid it all, but you still need to deal with your neighbors, traffic,etc.

Me, personally. I like going to Christmas lane, but I would hate to live there. I like to go to a home that's peace and quite. Even during Halloween, I have our fair share of trick-o-treaters being that I'm pretty close to a school and a park.

That is a good point, flu. I believe it is on a side street, not the main Xmas lane. I'd probably like to put up some decorations, so I think I could live with it, but I wouldn't try to overdo it. You'd get to know your neighbors, which CAN be a good thing. I agree if it is the main street, it can be a real nuissance - especially when you want to enjoy your holidays.

I would give it some thought too. We live on such a street in a different part of town. We light up every night for 2 weeks each year. Here are some things from personal experience:
Upside: If you are a Christmas person, this will make the season feel a zillion times more festive. It is also a great way to get to know and interact with your neighbors. I’m not one for those streets where all you know about your neighbors is which SUV parks at which house.
On the downside, we are talking EVERY YEAR here. Not just those you are in the mood. Some years you’ll be into it. Some you won’t. What if you get sick and don’t feel like doing the RITZ on the yard? What if you need to travel? Do you feel comfortable traveling and leaving your home for the holidays with all those people coming by? It’s not mandatory here, but there is a certain peer pressure that makes it feel that way. A dark house stands out badly.
Also, traffic on our street is rerouted to be one-way for the two weeks of light-up. Visitors driving through are supposed to keep to the outside so that the residents have an “express lane” to the inside and don’t have to wait 45 minutes to get to their driveway just because they needed to go to the grocery store or got home a little late. Believe me, you will be very pissed off at the first few people who flip you off, cut you off, or roll down their window and scream at you for trying to use the resident’s lane. Sometimes we get to the driveway just ahead of them enough and when we get out of the car we can see the look on their face when they realize what their little holiday season road rage tantrum was just about. You can really see it in the passengers’ expression.
Finally, we are very flattered by all the people that think enough of the hard work we put into the lights and displays, but it’s very creepy having strangers feel welcome to walk all over your yard (sometimes even up onto the porch) to take pictures amongst it. We’re still waiting for the first idiot who wants to sue for tripping over a wire or burning themselves on a spotlight.
Overall, it can really make the season, but in the end it is like what I always say about mowing the yard – I like mowing the yard, I just don’t like HAVING to mow the yard.

That stretch on Ellingham is the HEART of Christmas Card Lane. I used to walk home on that street from Black Mountain Middle School.

I really appreciate your inputs about the Christmas season and will give the location a serious consideration.

However, if this house would NOT be on the main streets of Christmas Card Lane, but somewhere close by, what are your thoughts about the house and its price?

thanks.

$290 psf. is a bit high, and the main street for x-mas card lane is Oviedo, but that is probably the second most traveled street there during Christmas. Very quiet area, though and centrally located, pretty much walking distance to all schools.

Scarlett...
If you do place an offer on that house, be sure to include the current owner's Christmas decorations as part of the deal. Some of those homes on Oviedo and Effingham have very elaborate Christmas arrangements. That's the reason you see lots of cars and trucks parked on the street. They use their garages for Christmas storage.

That house is definitely right in the heart of Christmas card lane. I rented a house near the corner of Ellingham and Twin Trails Dr. for two years. We absolutely loved Christmas time there. It's only about two weeks each year of intense festivities. We would just walk around the neighborhood each evening and take it all in (bands playing, horse drawn carriages, chorus singing) or sit in our driveway and watch everything. Unless you really, really hate xmas, there is no downside. I have since moved back to Seattle and each Christmas my wife and I definitely miss the holidays on Christmas card lane. And yes, if you buy the house please make sure that the owners leave the decorations. That house should have a large wood cutout that goes in the front yard.

+1

I'm in the same boat as MANom. $290 psf is a bit high. If you have young children who are going to BMMS and MCHS, it will be convenient for them to walk home from great schools. This benefit can only be realized if you plan on living in the home for many(5+) years.

It's not a good time to by property in San Diego right now. In general, there are too few properties on the market with too many people looking to buy - as evidenced by house prices rising this summer. The 8k tax credit is motivating many people, but shouldn't be the deciding factor for a house that's listing for ~540K. A few great deals pop up here and there, this listing is not one of them.

IMHO, it's best to wait until the effects of government intervention on the housing market subside. This advice is contingent upon rates staying low for at least the next year.

I guess I've subcumbed mommentarily to the 'buy now or be priced out'...I wasn't planning to buy for another year but then I walked in the open house and liked this house's location and overall and then I started longing for a home...

I can afford to wait and rent until end of summer 2010 when my daughter starts kindergarden. I supposed if pushed comes to shove I can wait until summer 2011. I'd like to get her started in school in PUSD and not have to move her again.

Any updated predictions for when the bottom of PQ would be reached? I saw early this year I think a thread with those forecasts, and somebody put it in late 2010, and SD R, I believe, put it in 2011. But of course, that was before most of the government intervention....

Thanks!!!

P.S. Yes, I plan to live in the house at least 13 years (school!!!) unless of course job situation changes dramatically.

Scarlett,

BIAS ALERT: I grew up in this area of PQ.

I feel these homes are a relatively good value when compared with RB, 4S Ranch, and newer areas in Carmel Valley. Why are those neighborhoods more expensive? Are their schools that much better? Are their crime rates that much lower? So I guess that's +1 for the neighborhood as a good relative value when compared to similarly featured nice neighborhoods in San Diego.

You asked about predictions for the bottom of the PQ market. Have you considered the shape of the curve at the bottom? Even if you find your perfect house at the 'bottom' of the market, how much have you saved?

My advice: be patient. It's going to be a buyer's market for a while. I can tell you really like the home, but I don't think your should feel pressured to buy because of the artificially 'hot' market. Remember 8K is 1.6% of 500K, so I doubt the tax credit is a serious factor. Plus, people in PQ generally take good care of their homes.

I believe you mean, it is a seller's market in PQ? Because of the scarcity of inventory, buyers are competing for the few good ones that appear, and this house has already couple offers. I am not aiming to buy at the very bottom, but sure as hell I don't want to buy if there would be another significant leg down (>10%). There is some point where the raise in rates will compensate drop in price.

Are you implying that most of the price drop has already occured in PQ and it probably will stay relatively flat or very slow decline? I don't qualify for tax credit anyway.
2010 (or 2011 or 2012 or whenever) could prove to be an interesting year if the government stops messing with the housing market, banks dump foreclosures on the market and rates rise. That's what I am afraid of.

Hi Scarlett

I have been in this listing. I forgot how many offers on it because I called recently but it was pretty active. I do not have anything groundbreaking to say as the previous posters have already covered it. PQ is and always will be a destination for many people as a cheaper yet pretty much quality alternative to 4S and Carmel Valley. Indeed the bounce in PQ in my mind has been stronger then the bounce in 4S and CV for this year so far.

The bottom line is that if you are going to buy now then you WILL overpay if there is anything redeeming about the home. It is simply a matter of crappy supply and this IS A MANIPULATED MARKET. I do not believe the market will up and run away on you so if you can wait then wait. Don't sweat the 8k tax credit as I will be willing to bet you that there will be another incentive on the heels of this one expiring.

If you think PQ is going to do an abrupt 180 and plung back down to where it was 6 months ago then wait. I do not think it will but everyone has thier own opinion. I think that down the road if there are interest rate disruptions then yes PQ can head south but that will be at the cost of a higher rate. If you have large cash reserves you are in the catbirds seat.

You need to measure out what is right for you in terms of having the home verses waiting for the bottom.

Thank you SD R and weberlin!
I think I'll wait another 6-12 months. No, I don't think the prices are going to go up significantly either. I'll keep my eyes open though and if by accident I see a house I really really like and seem like a good deal, I'll (try to) buy it. No, I don't have that large cash reserves, I'll probably go less than 20% down if I can.

Regarding the comparison of PQ to CV and 4S - the stuff in PQ IS generally older - that is the drawback. Initially I didn't want to consider houses that were built in late 70s, early 80s. But some of the houses in PQ of that age can be pretty nice if the owner has kept it up with replacements and repairs.

It's December 4th, three full weeks till Christmas, and the whole neighborhood is already lit up like ... you know ... the Christmas tree. Including Oviedo, Ellingham, and cross streets. Whoever said "it's just two weeks" was wrong. It's more like a month.