San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Good to see... It is in Costa Del Sol... they are packed in tight there but nonetheless it is good to see... By what the tax roll implies it seems at 599k it would be a short sale or the owner would have to come in with cash. Costa Del Sol is right next to the 56 off CV rd.

SD Realtor

it would be a short sale

Last sale on 10/31/2003 was for $494,621. So, did they borrow another $100K+ on top? Wow! a lot of middle and upper middle class families with negative net worth. That will hurt the economy quite a bit.

g2006, you have entered the "popcorn phase." I have no specific knowledge of this house or this area but this is my new theory that I think will apply to all areas, so look for it (it was developed during the world famous "three car garage monitor" research).

This house broke a mystical pricing level, it probably has it's drawbacks and there are things wrong with the property, it may be a short or a repo, it may be the smallest one on the street and have the smallest lot. You may try to talk yourself into it, but wait. A month may go by and no others join it below that level, wait further. Then another brave soul will join it, then two more then another four, then another eight, then the next thing you know there are 26, then the race is on to reach the next level, 550k. It's microwave popcorn, one pops, then another, but after a while it sounds like a machine gun. The trick is to turn off the micro before it burns, I haven't go that part of the theory worked out yet.

This house is owned by Chinese sellers (from what I can gather by their names). I only mention this because another poster stated that Asians will always hold on to dear life and never let go.

Once the Carmel's back is broken (I know, it should be camel), we'll know that we have entered the real period of adjustment. We're not there yet, but it's coming.

This house is owned by Chinese sellers (from what I can gather by their names). I only mention this because another poster stated that Asians will always hold on to dear life and never let go.

Once the Carmel's back is broken (I know, it should be camel), we'll know that we have entered the real period of adjustment. We're not there yet, but it's coming.

Didn't say "all". I said "most"...I can say though, this couple must be going through something tough, perhaps job transfer or something to swallow cough it up that. Note to self, check out this property.

SD R,

I'm curious. How did you figure out this would be a short sale. I show these folks are still the original owner, but I have no idea about their refinance history,etc....

This house not even mentioned year built no photos even - sounds like hiding more facts about this house.

5yearswaiter

Some info:

Subd. Costa Del Sol West

Last sale: 2003 @ $495,000
Tax 2007: $7,578
Sqf:1615, 3 bdr, 3 bath
Builder: Barrat american
Seems original owned, no history of other sale

No short sale... kind of....??

builder: Barat

the quality must be..... very niice!

FLU I took a peek at the tax rool on the MLS. It is a speculative statement on my part. I see a 440k loan originated in 05 and then another 150k in 06. So that is 590k. So at 599k sales price they would need to come in with cash or short it. My bet is they would come in with cash. My bet before that bet is that they will nix a 599k offer this early in the listing period.

As you know I like to bet.

I know that subdivision pretty well. It's a bit on the fringe of CV, in the general Pacific Highlands Ranch - Torrey del Mar corridor along Carmel Valley Road. That area is much softer than the older CV areas, as there is a lot of recent construction. There is probably nothing wrong with the house, just a seller who is serious about selling. Also, that particular floor plan is quite small, and I think its price peaked at just under $700K in 2005. So the discount isn't that great (yet). The top of their pricing range ($669K) is almost peak pricing.

There is no way of knowing what that 150K loan is. It could be a HELOC with a zero balance. I have one of them.

I have one of them.

What is the use? I know some people have taken out this 'anticipatory' HELOCs. I never figured out a reason. BTW, how much does it cost? (setup & to hold)

It cost me nothing to set up and it costs me nothing to hold. I wanted access to a couple hundred grand just in case. It helps me sleep well knowing I could whip out a check book and write a huge check at a moments notice without liquidating long term assets if the need or opportunity arose where I needed to.

FWIW, the rate on it is Prime minus 1%.

bsrsharma,

Actually, lot's of people get a HELOC for emergency purposes.See, when you're currently well employed, well financially, tt's easy to get a loan, including a HELOC. But suppose you have a bad string of luck, out of a job, get into a big health issue and for some reason insurance isn't up to snuff. You're short on cash, you won't be able take a loan out at that point. Some people get HELOC's when they can, "just" in case. Trying to refinance equity out of a home when your unemployed and need money is not too easy.

It' very similar to dating or employment. When you have a significant other or have a job, it's much easier to find something else. When you really need a significant other or a job when you lose your previous one, it's just that much more difficult....

So several people i know have HELOCs with 0 balance. It's just added "just in case". I've been too lazy to get one myself, but one of these days I will. Ok, the real reason is that I froze my credit files, and forgot where I put the unfreeze pins to allow someone to pull a credit report. Oopps.

I'll be curious to find out what really is behind this unit.

1) It could be seller is trying to sell $599-$669k with original purchase price of $494k.

or

2) $599k short sale, because of a $494k and a $150k second loan.

The former is hardly considered a desperate seller. The latter would be a desperate seller.

If I would bet money on it, I would say it's #1 more likely than #2. Furthermore, I'd bet that the couple would would rather rent at a loss versus take a bath in the sales loss. Hence, the hanging on to dear life expression i said in another thread. I'm not saying it's smart or dumb... You just have to understand the culture.

I'll bookmark this to see which way it entails. even at $600k, this home is still ridiculously overpriced per sqft...Don't know if any of you noticed, but it's around 1600sqft....

I actually looked at this property this week as a rental. The listing agent showed it to me and they purchased a larger home in Carmel Valley somewhere. So they went to the "hang on and rent" option. It was in very nice condition, was upgraded to some degree and had a very decent sized back yard for the size of the home.

I actually looked at this property this week as a rental. The listing agent showed it to me and they purchased a larger home in Carmel Valley somewhere. So they went to the "hang on and rent" option. It was in very nice condition, was upgraded to some degree and had a very decent sized back yard for the size of the home.

I thought that would be the case...I guess  I'm still looking for the asian family that violates the "hanging on no matter what" syndrome...Although I think I might have found one. One of my neighbors that bought about 5-6 months ago and overpaid just put their home on the block again. Interesting.

Last sale on 10/31/2003 was for $494,621. So, did they borrow another $100K+ on top? Wow! a lot of middle and upper middle class families with negative net worth.

It gets much worse than that. I've been researching the situation in 92122 a couple of days ago. It's basically a big island of denial, stable prices, very few listings, low foreclosure rates, etc.. What caught my attention was the kind of foreclosures they were getting.

2/3 of all foreclosures are coming from condo conversions in Nobel Drive area. The ones coming from single family houses are more interesting.

5135 Maynard St: purchased for $455,000 in 2000; estimated default $683,453
4311 Robbins St: purchased for $275,000 in 1998; estimated default $617,765
5131 Bothe Ave: purchased for $218,000 in 1984; estimated default $628,123
6294 Lakewood St: purchased for $191,700 in 1983; estimated default $798,027

Carmel Valley is on the clock!
I knew this place well. Lots of upper middle class folks with plenty of savings. I'm sure some are facing resets, but they figure they can use their savings until the markets restarts the upward trend. All you need is one solid 10% down in the older part of CV, and that will get the dominos to start falling. These people in CV actually think they are immune from the greats housing bust in recent history so they are burning cash and hope to keep CV pricing stable for now! Condos are showing cracks, and SFR will follow soon.

Looks like SFR on the outer edges of CV are showing some hairline fractures. The crack will start widening and head for the 5 freeway, and then all hell will break loose!

I was going to feature this house too.

but here's what I found:

13564 Lavender Way San Diego CA 92130
--06/2007: sold for $670,000

same model, with one major difference, this one is one house away from the slope of the 56.

if only I waited...

you know, it seems that some folks on this forum are just waiting to cash-in on misfortunes of others, no matter what the circumstances are. While I am also upset about flippers, I wouldn't be rubbing my hands waiting for the whole market to crash so that I can have a home while many families (who made some bad decisions) become "homeless". It's not like everyone who buys a home is a flipper.

justbought, I think you may not have read too many of the older threads but you have made a classic faux pau, one which is repeated every few weeks and answered by the majority of the regulars. My advice, remove this site from your favorites, get a flashy thing from Men in Black and erase your memory so you forget the website name. Coming back to see the replies will only hurt your feelings, not just because of the attacks, but because the cogent arguments made by some highly intelligent people will send you reeling and realizing your own finances are in trouble now.

I'll throw my answer to this ideology in first, believe me it will be of the more kind you will read.

I root for a small crash in the R/E prices, let
s say 50% or a return to 200/2003 pricing. I don't root for me I root for the young couples who were priced out in the last few years. The college graduate couples, having children and raising them in apartments. Those who have worked and saved like their parents told them to but the prices went up ten times faster than they could save. The young teachers, police and fireman who leave this part of the country because they refuse to contribute to society, a society that they cannot take part in personally. The resons this all happened to them was not because they didn't earn it, it is because the greedy squeezed them out and soon they will be able to come back or live the life they were promised and worked for. The middle class was made into the working poor by "creative" financing and people buying what they couldn't afford. Some profitted and sold at the right time, in reality they were stealing from these very same families you champion. A decline won't take money from them, the person who sold to them did. It will hurt some in order to bring balance back to the universe, but the masses will benefit. I'm sorry where, were the news stories for them, where is your pity for them. I got out of college more than 20 years ago and was welcomed into a career and a modest home was in my reach, that needs to come back.

There is so little time left, make up your mind, check the thickness of your skin and decide if you can handle it because some of my friends lack my...decorum.

FLU,
How does one go about putting a freeze on their credit, and is it a huge pain to take it off?
Thanks for info you can provide.

temecu: i can respect posts made with same "decorum" and reasoning as yours. But there seem to be some rather flaming remarks for people who bought recently to live, not to make money. yes, I think I'll take your advice stop coming to piggington at least for a while, as i've contributed all i could. I'll check back in 2009 and see if the same people are still patiently waiting.

justbought I think there actually is a pretty mixed bag of posters here. I cannot tell you how many times I have read a post, then composed a long reply and then simply deleted it. Personally I find myself coming here just as much as I always have but not responding to as many posts as I used to because it either seems repetitive or it simply is not worth it. I think there is alot of value here... and yes there is alot of bitterness but don't let it get to you.

as for you tg... well my friend I have spent a fair amount of time late this evening looking at the jags team stats because I REALLY want to lay some lumber on them tomorrow but I am not sure yet... jags need to cover 3 points... should be an easy game as the bolts have won a single road game this season against the ponies.... man I wish I wasn't such a wus...

Now getting back to what you wrote I think it was very nice... yet the one thing that you kind of glossed over was that those same people for whom you are rooting for, well many types like them also did buy and some of them did sell as well. I know many of them who were young couples, and yes even a firefighter and even a teacher who bought back in 02/03 and sold in 05/06. These younguns did very well for themselves and have a great leg up on those that did not. As horrid as the lending standards were these same people would not have been able to do what they did without them. Now does that justify the lax standards? Not at all. I guess I am just pointing out that there is always another side to any and every story. Just like some of those nice people who didn't sell may indeed lose thier home.

I don't wish ill will upon anyone but yes I want the market to come down so I can buy as well. I am bitter about the past moreso because I did not take advantage of it, rather then because I am now priced out of what I really want. I do blame the lending industry, the administration, the real estate industry... yet I blame myself much much more because it was opportunity missed. I think many others do as well... maybe they don't say it.

The cynical side of me always does believe that there is always a back room full of people making money off the majority of all of us. It doesn't matter if it is Wall Street, Real Estate, Oil... whatever. It doesn't matter because there will always be something ya know? It always may feel or seem like we play against a stacked deck. Yet there are plenty of people that take advantage of that... that make the best of it and can cope and ride it for a spell and get ahead... and then get out without losing the nut...

SD Realtor

S.D., you make a valid point, I used some broad generalizations but my argument has merit that the market returning to normal will have it's casualties but it will be better for most of society and the industry as well. Shakeouts are healthy, like fasting or a sweat lodge, a time tested purification.

About the lumber laying, stay away from it. Garrard is coming off an injury and wasn't that confident in an interview today. He may go down early and it will throw off the scripted plays. Jags are too hot and cold for any lumber, now the pack or the browns, I'll guarantee those picks. The steelers barely escaped at home vs the brownies, the ravens have far less talent and the pack has found a running game just in time for the weather, total locks.

BTW, if I do decide to throw some lowball offers out, what's your policy and commission. Are you averse to wasting your time on lowball offers to banks on repos or builders on standing inventory, is the drive to temec worth it for you? my stupid e-mail addy is far too revealing with portions of my real name and I still may have stalkers if I'm lucky, so can you throw up yours? I'm eyeing a few in particular and am thinking of offering 15% below but can justify it with research but don't need the competition by mentioning it here and now every salesgirl at the builders in town knows who I am (I have stop flirting with well dressed milfs) because I talk like I write and they talk to each other, so the realtors are probably wise to me too and I'd prefer to bring in a ringer.

you know, it seems that some folks on this forum are just waiting to cash-in on misfortunes of others, no matter what the circumstances are. While I am also upset about flippers, I wouldn't be rubbing my hands waiting for the whole market to crash so that I can have a home while many families (who made some bad decisions) become "homeless". It's not like everyone who buys a home is a flipper.

I don't really think it is about cashing in on the misfortune of others as much as it is about waiting for the artificially inflated prices to return to the norm.

For the folks that bought prior to the run up, good for them. A lot of them did one thing right, they were born a few years earlier. therefore they were already in the work force and bought when they did.

the true victims of the price run up are the folks that were born a few years too late, they got out of school or they just moved into town just in time to find the prices skyrocket.

when the prices were increasing, the public were kept away from the true cause of the run up. they were told this was a legitimate price increase caused by increase in population and the lack of land. two things that the victims could have done. #1, listened to that reasoning and buy something they knew they couldn't afford, or #2, do their own research and stay out of the market.

I would not come in here and start slamming the community of posters here because they and Rich truly have helped a lot of folks fight that urge to buy, and these folks truly are a whole lot better off for it.

FLU,
How does one go about putting a freeze on their credit, and is it a huge pain to take it off?
Thanks for info you can provide.

novice1027. It's actually pretty easy to put a credit freeze on. Basically, all you need to do is mail(snail mail) each of the three credit bureau (experion, transunion, equifax) requesting that you put a credit freeze. In the letter, you provide your personal information and a $10 check.A few weeks later, you'll get a mail from each of the credit bureaus containing a pin number. You use the pin number to temporary "unlock" your credit file. You can unlock it for a specific person/entity or you can unlock the file for a period of time (for example 10 days).

The slight hassle is making your credit available to others when you need to. FSo if you buy a new car with a loan for example, you need to unlock your credit file in time for the loan company to run a credit check, otherwise they will be denied. If you apply for a job where they are doing background checks and credit checks, you need to unlock your file around the time they plan on running the background check.

It's not really a big deal..If you tell the employer/loan company that you have a credit freeze and explain what it is, they will usually work with you. It's merely a coordination task for you to do.

One positive note asside from someone randomly stealing your credit...It prevents those spontaneous purchases requiring a loan application.

Here's some more information.

http://www.privacy.ca.gov/sheets/cis10se...

Fortunately, we're one of the states that allows for this. Obviously the credit bureaus are trying repeal this.

you know, it seems that some folks on this forum are just waiting to cash-in on misfortunes of others, no matter what the circumstances are. While I am also upset about flippers, I wouldn't be rubbing my hands waiting for the whole market to crash so that I can have a home while many families (who made some bad decisions) become "homeless". It's not like everyone who buys a home is a flipper.

Justbought, Don't feel bad. It's just that other people are jealous.

Other people, don't feel bad. Look at all the people that bought and now are worried about things falling.

Other people's people. Don't feel bad. <insert your house's complex> is immune to the price fall occuring in <insert your city>

Other people, don't feel bad, you don't have to buy in that complex that is immune to the price fall.

Other people that is in a complex where the price is falling, don't feel bad you're making a lot of money in the long position in the stock market.

Other people shorting the stock market, don't feel bad you're making a lot of money shorting the market the last two weeks.

Other people holding onto cash...Don't feel bad, at least your not losing money in the stock market either way.

Other people not holding onto cash. Don't feel bad, at least your not losing money watching your dollars depreciating

Other people buying gold and energy. Don't feel bad, precious metals and energy is going up.

Other people not buying gold and energy. Don't feel bad, metals and energy are a bubble going to come crashing down.

People that still feeling bad...Don't feel bad, at least you still have a job.

Jobless? Don't feel bad, at least you have a good family and/or health.

Still feeling bad, dont' worry there are pills you can take to make you feel better. Talk to your doctor about Zoloft.

See, there's something to feel good about at any point in time.