San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

1) The commute is exactly 30-45 minutes depending on traffic. Fridays are usually more like 45 min.

2) The schools are great. Just realize that Carlsbad is split into three districts. 1) Carlsbad 2) San Dieguito and 3) San Marcos. The homes tend to be cheaper in the San Marcos school district so be aware of that. I know the general district lines but not well enough to list them.

3) Carlsbad is one of my favorite areas and is great for kids. I think the areas you listed above are all great. I personally would choose those areas over the northern part.

4s Ranch has 4 bed 1900-2100 sq ft for less than 550 (look for La Vina - saintsbury glen/ tallus or Garden Gate - calloway/snowbell/etc). Probably will get smaller lot there but will be an easier commute for you.

Regarding schools, scores change rapidly. Some of the usually low scores are improving in areas like san marcos (fed by parts of carlsbad zipcodes). Keep this in mind when you look at eastern carlsbad.

I disagree...

Commute via 56 is very sticky at rush hours...unless one goes I-15 to 52... and even then.

I think 4S ranch is pretty hot being inland, hotter than Carlsbad, and we prefer more coastal climate.

Melo Roos - are pretty high in 4S Ranch aren't they?

How are MRs in Carlsbad?

Another issue, I've heard Aviara is very nice, but there are many (?) power lines. It's not that bad for all Aviara, is it?

MRs is Carlsbad vary from area to area ... typically it's low compared to SEH.

Aviara is real nice but 550K wont give you any mileage there ... well atleast not as of today. Even with all the Power Lines, homes in your criteria are starting in High 600s or Low 700s as they appear on MLS today.

I saw some pretty spacious 3bdr+extra room in Aviara under 600K. Not bona fide 4 bdr, but it can be converted. Or used as such for office. And the prices may come down a little more in a year or two.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090027615-63...
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080065277-71...
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090027615-63...

What is the difference between Carlsbad 92009 and 92011? Which one is preferable?

92011 is coastal (west of El Camino Real), 92009 is inland. Generally speaking, 92009 is cheaper. 92011 is completely Carlsbad Unified, 92009 is divided between SM, Encinitas/San Dieguito, and Carlsbad school districts.

Here's a thread on Carlsbad Quality-of-life and commute

Train commute is sweet if you can hack it. Save gas and the environment, plus enjoy the beach view or read the newspaper. I occasionally see bunch of dudes on their laptops on facebook or email, I guess thru broadband wireless.

Drive commute is also easier now since original post with new lanes and fewer cars (due to recession)

http://piggington.com/carlsbad_comments

We are moving to the San Pacifio area (rental) as I am tired of tiny, old, house -by-the-freeway. (Coastal off of Poinsettia). For whatever reason the noise over there doesn't seem nearly as oppressive even though I am just as close to I-5.

I live right off Birmingham in Cardiff and drive to Genessee and it's rarely more than 20 minutes. It takes nearly that long to get to La Costa Canyon which is why I am quite thrilled my kids are not going there (no knock on the school, just hate Encinitas surface street lights).

Sometimes the evening commute is longer depending on when you leave. I usually leave at 4:00-4:30 and with school being it's like Nascar. Also for the ride home I find Thursday 5:00 to be the worst except on a 3-day weekend.

I am not much for the train it's really expensive, and we have to hop off at Sorrento Valley and tack a commuter bus to the office. The whole thing takes way too long, it's probably fine for Dinks and singles, but since my kids are athletes the last thing I want is an extra hour of commute time to save the planet. I think in 5-10 years when the kids are out, it might be nice. We will live pretty close to the park and ride.

I expect San Pacifio to run me an extra 5-15 minutes per day each way over and above Birmingham (we shall see).

In comparing the areas around LCC/Diegueno, I find the south carlsbad addresses might have newer, nicer homes. Not always of course, but out that So. Carlsbad area, I would at least try to get close to Encinitas

On my way home tonight I missed the turn and ended up on I-5 north ... If that's the "easier" commute, I don't want to know how it was before the new lines and the recession.

At 8:30 pm, my normal commute (56 to 15 or 52 to 15) is very much free-flowing, and I usually can sustain 75 mph all the way.

On 5N from the merge to Lomas Santa Fe, on the other hand, I was driving under the speed limit half of the time, because the freeway was too busy.

With what? The commute or the homes?

Regarding the homes: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080072589-16...

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090015240-16...

Regarding the commute, 4s to 5/56 interchange is 20 minutes via Camino del norte/sur to either the 56, carmel valley road or through RSF. Considering you hit the bypass at the 5, you miss a lot of the traffic which would leave 1 or 2 exits in la jolla. So do you disagree on commute to 4s vs carlsbad?

I have done the commute from RB via 56 to 5 for a couple years and it was ALWAYS VERY STICKY betweem CArmel Valley Rd and 5 in the morning rush hour. 20 minutes is with free flowing traffic on 56.

I don't know for sure about Carlsbad, but it may be a wash, commute wise, at rush hours.

Anyways, we are considering also 4S ranch, though with less drive. I am not keen on the MeloRoos and being so far inland, and the 56 commute. Been there, done that.

How walkable are 92011 and 92009? Like, to something like parks, strip malls, grocery. Is it pretty hilly?

Full on Traffic at 5/530 pm - 20 minutes. The morning is the same leaving at 7-730 from 4s. I have done it daily for 2 years and change. Camino Del Norte/ Sur either through RSF, Via CV Rd or to the 56, its all the same. My buddy up the road works at 5/Del Mar Hts and it takes him 20.

Regarding MR in 4s, find a home on the south side of Camino and your MR will be less. Plus the landscape is mature.

Thanks, LAA. I'll keep that in mind when looking at 4S R. I liked the shopping mall there. Do you get any ocean breeze there, perhaps thru the San Dieguito river canyon? Is it warmer that Southern Penasquitos?

MarketResearcher,

What do you think about the Tramonto community in Aviara?
I've read a short thread here early this year. What does it mean 'detached condominium'? Are they detached homes within a gated community with HOAs? Those are cheaper now, and they probably will get even cheaper. The true detached homes in Aviara indeed seem to hold on to mid-high 600K, like you said.

Was it perhaps due to the FAIR?

Recently there has been a breeze but the past two summers have been very hot. Some of the homes on the south side of el camino are on the side of a hill that may get a breeze but im not sure.

Best thing to do is insulate those attics as much as possible and get a whole house fan to suck the hotair out. Otherwise those homes are sunsoaking hotboxes.

Scarlett,
yes you are correct ... I am seeing relative decline in prices (though very small) for smaller homes (townhomes or Condominums) in Aviara ... but then again there are not so many of those in Aviara ... they come up rarely in market and are going up very fast (like everything else under 700k). Once in a while you get one with large back yard or side yard etc. "Detached Condominium" is more like a townhome. I do not think Aviara has a any typical Condominium complexes (ones with lots of apartments within 1 single building). Hope this helps.

Years ago I used to commute from Carlsbad to Del Mar. You could always count on traffic during the normal working time rush and it always took me at least 40 minutes door to door. If there was an accident or something out of the ordinary it was more. I ended up taking another job in the OC with the same drive time but a more peaceful commute. Now, either the traffic has gotten better or people on here are seriously underestimating the door to door commute if they say 30 minutes in rush hour. I'm not going to go drive it in rush hour to prove them wrong but I don't believe it.

To the OP, is this the house you are planning on staying in? You say you have young kids, don't you want a yard? The places on the links seem like they have...a patio. If you aren't planning on staying in this place I would wait for prices to further drop.

True, I want a yard, not a patio. I am going to wait at least another year. Right now is very little inventory of detached 4 bdr homes in So Carlsbad 600K and lower, and those links were all I could find now that would come even close to what I need. yes, I plan to stay there 7-10yrs at least.
Eventually I will road test the commute at rush hour before I buy...If it gets close to 1 hr, then, it's a no-no.

Yes, 4s to 5/56 taking any of your routes is 20 minutes with light traffic.
I actually timed the drive from Garden Gate to Genesee exit off I-5 using San Dieguito Road, at 24 minutes. La Vina would be 22 minutes.

I'm not familiar with San Dieguito route during rush hour. All I can say, pray that there are no accidents, since it's two lane roads almost all the way.

All other routes make you hit the congested stretch of 56 between 5 and Carmel Valley, which would add 10-15 min. to your commute.

I disagree that it's necessarily an easier commute, because the OP could live in Aviara or La Costa, and it would be an easy 15-17 minute drive to 5/56 interchange during off-peak hours, mostly freeway (much easier than stop-and-go trek across Fairbanks Ranch).

Hey Scarlett,

Here's the thread on Aviara Tramonto if you haven't seen it

http://piggington.com/aviara_tramonto_tr...

I personally would stay away from detached condos, plus condos inherently will not hold value.

If you look closely there are Single Family Homes in the south Carlsbad area in Carlsbad School district that are in the 600s.

Thanks New, how about you? Have you bought anything in Carlsbad yet?

Totally agree with this. We live in 92009, and it takes 20-30 minutes to get to La Jolla (door-to-door) without any traffic at all. During rush hour, it's more like 45 minutes, at best. It could easily take over an hour during bad weather, with accidents, heavy traffic, etc.
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As to walkability/ridability in 92009/92011:

92009 is almost all hills. Not very walkable unless you are very near El Camino Real, if you want to go to the stores, etc. There is a trail system which is really nice here, so if you just want to walk for the sake of walking, it's great. If you want to walk to the local stores, most neighborhoods are surrounded by very busy, high-speed, main arteries with people speeding 50+ mph @ six or more lanes across. Many people are fine with that, but with kids, I'm not enthusiastic about those streets. Riding bikes around here, especially with small children is a no-go because of all the hills.

Rancho Ponderosa (near the Olivenhain/ECR intersection) has some community parks, and is close to the Target shopping center, where most of us in this area do all of our shopping.

This is a nice area in the typical suburban sense, but definitely a "car" kind of neighborhood, IMHO.

Thank you, CA renter! That is very useful to know.

I think this is a cool website, I am not sure how accurate, but might give you come idea

http://www.walkscore.com/

i just ran the zipcodes no specific address

92009 20 out of 100 walkability index
http://www.walkscore.com/get-score.php?s...

92011 22 out of 100 walkability index
http://www.walkscore.com/get-score.php?s...