San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

I'd go if I had a date, Perry are you free? There will be some scary people there and I don't want to go alone.

Josh

Perry, that George is such a whore for the REIC. can you e-mail me that ad to me at ocrenter at gmail dot com? I think it is time to do another story on del sur on my blog.

thanks.

The program prominently features Russ Valone and Alan Nevin as speakers. That pretty much sums up it's credibility right there.

In good times you should advertise. In bad times you must advertise.

As discussed previously, the Del Sur development is a ghost town in the making. Mello Roos + property taxes = around 1.8% annually. Not a pretty picture. Not to mention an HOA that is being partially paid by the developers. Not sure what the HOA fee will be when the developers are done. A lot higher is my guess.

here's my posting on the subject, enjoy.

Great post, ocrenter. I like your style :)

I went out there. The MR are high, the lots are very small, and the HOA will be steep. They even had 3 story model out there with the family room on the third floor. My wife got a good laugh out of that one. I can only image how bad the commute will be when it is all built up out there. Its over 4 miles from the 56 up to Del Sur. And then you crawl on the 56 to I-5. Ugh.

On the bright side, the schools will have good scores.

This is a very stupid planned community.The fools that planned the exits and entrance should go back to school.
Try 6.30 am -8am and see the traffic.
I also think there is HOA, MR and another fee for using the facilities.Maybe someone can say more on this.

Yeah, this development is a TAX. Nice looking hood, just wrong place, too expensive, no yards, HOAs, new schools with a bunch of plastic kids that will grow up to be plastic just like their mom and dads.

During the last bust, Fairbanks Ranch was like this. It was a psuedo Rancho Santa Fe and had not yet reached maturity. Fairbanks got nailed during the last downturn, but I think it'll do a lot better this time around.

Same for Santaluz this time. It isn't yet built out or stabilized and it's a little farther out than some of its competitors so I think it'll suffer more as a result. The fact that a good portion of it consists of tract homes rather than real customs is also going to work against it.

You'll know they're in real trouble when they discontinue the guard service.

What did George TW Chamberlin say at Del Sur? The rosiest scenario I bet.

I went to this seminar and the information was great. I learned a great deal in the Chamberlain session that I wouldn't have known otherwise. Besides, the houses they were held in were pretty impressive and the scenery in that area is unreal. I'm glad I went!

"I went to this seminar and the information was great"

Please elaborate.

The problem is that savvy proffessionals don't have time to understand the market. Just like they don't understand or have time to vote on the right people in local offices or understand the impacts of sprawl like that of Del Sur on our quality of life.

sedwick19-- I assume you're being a little bit sarcastic unless you're talking about the whole session with Chamberlain and the shills (whoops, I meant guys) from MarketPointe.

George was basically the warm up act, telling a few jokes and thereby reassuring the huddled masses (hey, it was a little chilly that morning) that there was nothing to be worried about here, move along. Well, that is, after you buy a house since "It's always a great time to buy!" ™.

Things I learned:

• It's warmer here in San Diego than most of the rest of the country
• There are 350-357 GPDs here (those are Golf Playable Days)
• Not really a foreclosure problem becuase only 10% of borrowers are in the excessive obligation category.
• Only 1 in 6 borrowers have ARMs, so again, no worries there
• Children of homeowners do better in school than children of renters
• Fortune magazine did a cover article on the housing bust in 2002. Ha ha, so everyone must still be wrong

Anyway, those are the highlights that I can remember, but you can see the whole thing for yourself right here.

I can't believe that there are suckers in that price range.

Why would anyone waste their time on those seminar? Even corporate seminars/conferences are full of bull -- nothing inspirational about them.

There are suckers at all price points.

Also, I know your comment wasn't directed at me (or at least I don't think it was), but I wasted my time there! Mostly, I enjoy hearing what those with opposing viewpoints have to say and I was *hoping* to possibly run into fellow Piggingtonians.

Sadly, I failed in the latter regard, mainly because I was reluctant to shout Bubble! in a crowded seminar tent...

sdcellar, I didn't direct the comment at you. As a matter of fact, going to these events can be great entertainment so that's probably why you attended. :) I was picturing all of the attendees who come out of those seminars energized, positive, "born-again," and of course ready to make a commitment by buying-in. Those seminars work otherwise they wouldn't hold them.

I plan to take a tour of Downtown sponsored by the Center City Development Corp next month. I'm expecting a sales pitch for suckers but I figure that it's better than driving around and looking at all the buildings on my own.

Yeah, I was actually hoping to see you there.

No doubt these things work. I think just the big white tent alone doesn't come cheap--add in speaker engagement fees and free lattes, damn well better sell some houses.

The sad thing is for those who actually are attending to "get informed", it's probably the single worst decision many of them could make.

I like to think that at least a few really figured out some things though. Alan Nevin (one of the MarketPointe speakers) accidentally referred to housing prices as insane at one point. Hopefully, it registered at least subliminally with a few folks...

Were the people in attendance all wearing their purple "away team" jumpsuits and Nikes?

Chamberlin, Nevin, and Valone must be the modern day equivalents of "Do" aka Marshall Applewhite.

Bugs,

You mentioned Fairbanks Ranch being "nailed during the last downturn" (in your post on Feb. 22).

If you remember, can you please recount how agressively did the builders in Fairbank cut prices ? (I realize that it's a long time ago)

Thanks.