San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

My passing familiarity with Obama and Hillary's statements on this issue leads me to believe that you're right about Hillary, but Obama would be pretty hands off. Is there anything you can point me to to correct that perception?

CogSciGuy -

You are correct that my assessment is a generalization of Obama. It is certainly not based on any actions or proposals by him. Conversely I just don't see any established record on his part because he is so new so to speak.

However, if he embraces the ideals of many in his party then I would figure he would indeed support measures like this and not veto them. I find it hard he would veto ideas put forward by guys like Shumer, Dodd and co...

So yes my post is very speculative and not based on voting record or anything I have heard yet from Obama...

I VERY MUCH hope I am wrong about him as I do believe he is the front runner at this point and I would lay odds that he will indeed win.

SD Realtor

Henry Paulson stand firm in this regard too. He does not welcome anymore bailout especially for flippers, investers and banks. He agreed that it will do more harm than good and I completely agree. I am starting to change my mind to vote for Republican now because they seem to have some sort of direction and bottom lines, unlike Democrats. They only rush for more bailout programs that they did not really think about the details. They use that as their tools for political reasons in which I hate.

Both Hillary and Obama have a populist rhetoric today; they have both announced that they'd renegotiate NAFTA. They do this ostensibly to capture votes from displaced manufacturing workers in Ohio. But still, it worries me that if elected, they would damage free trade.

So, I wouldn't be surprised if any of them two yields to the pressure to bail out large banks and FBs.

GWB's allegiance to religious extremists and his decision to invade Iraq and its aftermath have made his administration one of the worse on record, if not the worst. However, in economic matters, he's done mostly the right things:

1. Lowered taxes

2. Proposed a guest worker program (that would largely reduce illegal immigration and make cross-border labor flow subject to control by authorities, as opposed to the current chaotic situation)

3. Resisted using tax-payer money to bail out irresponsible financial firms and overextended borrowers who created this housing bubble mess in the first place

Well, Hillary's accusation that Obama is "to the right of Bush" on housing make me hopeful that we'll have good policy on the issue, since I think he'll be the next president. Which, IMHO, is a good thing.

I have no idea what McCain would do. Haven't seen any statements from him regarding whether intervention in this housing correction would be good or bad. Anyone else?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/19...

IMO McCain has no opinion on the economy whatsoever. I remember him saying that rising interest rates made housing unaffordable and caused the current situation. So he will just read whatever speeches his domain-expert advisers will write. Just like the current administration.

Clinton just says anything that she thinks people want to hear. Obama prefers to avoid specifics.

None of candidates (except Ron Paul, of course) understands the issues the economy is facing.

Sandi Egan, I completely agree with your assessment. Too bad none of the currently potential candidates can bring back Clintonomic of the 90s.

All I know is that Bush has never heard of $4.00 gas.
Wait and see what that does to housing this summer.

Bush probably put all his money in a hedge fund that is short real estate and related derivatives.

Politics are pretty funny when you compare results fs promises.

Let's take good old Mr, Kennedy. He promised to help students by providing grant money that would be obtained by cutting subsidies to Federal Studnet loan Providers. This program was suppose to be great becaeu it wouldn't cost taxpayers a dime.

Let see the reality. Not only have lenders closed their doors and decreased teh amoutn of competition they have also eliminated many borrwer beenfits that went back to reducing the costs for those who borrower.

Now lets's see how the governemtn has to then react
T
he chairmen offer Secretary Spellings suggestions on how to prepare for a worst-case scenario. If markets do not improve in the coming weeks, most lenders will find it difficult to raise enough capital to meet peak demand next fall. That scenario seems unlikely given the soundness of federal student loan securitization and bond deals that are generally viewed as some of the safest investments around, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. But should the markets - and lenders' situation - worsen, the chairmen suggest the Secretary be prepared to use lender of last resort provisions, including ADVANCING CASH to guaranty agencies to allow them to make loans directly to students.

WOW sort of seems like a cost to me. Politicians are such idiots. So easy to see this was going to be a result of their magical promises.

I just want people who know how to balance a budget to run the country. No matter what their political stripe. I hate the thought of paying for today's party tomorrow.

http://www.uuforum.org/deficit.htm

svelte

Any info that might go along witt the chart to see who held the house or senate at the time.

Addiionally does anyone have any research that could present solid analytical data as to the lag time for presidential policy showing up in the statistical date. I have hear it is 7 years but no eveidence behind that.

This is going to be tough this year.

1)Choose the unknown economic policy of  McCain.

or 

2)Choose the known and scary economic policy of the Democrats.

I guess there's alway R. Nader :)

selfportrait

----- Sour grapes for everyone!

Why would mccain change current economic course?

I have to think that no matter what happens in the 2008 election, by next winter it'll be too late to do much of anything. If Congress doesn't pass a bipartisan bill (or the banks do something similar voluntarily) this year, one of two things will happen:

1. Housing will bottom on its own next winter & spring, before a hypothetical Democratic government could change anything meaningful.

2. 2008 will look a lot like 2007. Houses now or nearly at the NOD stage will foreclose and flood the market, adding another 6 months of inventory; credit availability and demand drops, prices fall 15-20% further, pulling another N million mortgages into foreclosure. Either the banks will work out mortgage reductions on their own, or the inventory on the market will be so large by the time the Democrats take office that nothing short of burning down the excess supply will fix it.

whoever wins, whatever they do, i'm feeling a torch and pitchfork party coming.

Look at how they manage, or should I say mis-manage their campaigns. Electing anyone incapable of managing the finances of a campaign raising 35 mil in one month scares the crap out of me.