San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Great detective work. Did you speak with anyone involved in these transactions?

No. There's no info on zillow on any of the streets listed, a friend is awaiting a call back from Lennar reps (not holding his breath) to verify this information. One thing is for sure though...at the Bressi Ranch website (www.bressiranch.com), under neighborhoods, rolling over Wisteria Place I see "Anticipated pricing from the low $800's", yet "clicking through" yields the following contradictory "Anticipated pricing from the Mid $600,000s" so I believe this is accurate stuff.

I plan to go in there sometime soon myself and ask about this point blank. If true, this info NEEDS to be brought to the attention of the public by whatever means necessary.

Any insight sdrealtor? Do you know about this development and why it might be available for over $200K less today than a year ago?? It's in North County Coastal, too, by the way.

I know Bressi ranch fairly well. I don't beleive a house in the Wisteria Place neighborhood (the cheapest one there) ever sold in the 800's. The way Bressi Ranch is laid out with different neighborhoods at different price points often sharing the same street name this might be a cause for some confusion. If you are Zillowing, you are getting bad information because it is only looking at sq footage and room counts. That's what is probably going on but who knows.

Zillow is pretty useless from my experience. My house shows up on Zillow at 775K when the same model across the street without upgrades or a huge yard like mine sold in the high 800's 1 year ago. The funniest thing is when I make Zillow adjustments adding a bedroom and 250 sq ft because the tax records Zillow uses are wrong my home goes down in value over 50K.

With that said, there are some relatively great deals going on in Bressi Ranch and it has pretty much crippled resales in the Rancho Carrillo neighborhood next. I know they are doing alot of discounting there and throwing alot of upgrades around. Personally I kind of like the feel of Bressi ranch but there is too much air traffic overhead for me.

A developer cannot afford to sit on a completed house for very long. The carrying costs are massive, especially in a price range like this. They're still in construction on a lot of homes over there and they will eventually have to sell every one of them, one way or another.

It would be interesting to see what the retail markup will be for options at these base prices. Average mark-ups in Bressi Ranch for options and upgrades have been running just under $40,000 per unit over there, with a few units up in the $80s and even exceeding $100k. It wouldn't surprise me if Lennar finds a way to boost their $800k loss leaders back up to $900k by the time they close. I'm sure they'll try, anyway.

Bugs,
I'm right behind you. You sound like you are in the biz also. In what capacity?

I have learned that, indeed, the house mentioned earlier did sell for over $800K and it is in Wisteria Place.

The exact same homes can be had TODAY for the low-mid $600s. If you don't believe it, go into the sales office and ask for yourself. It will be a very eye-opening experience.

If a house in Wisteria Place sold in the 800's it surprises me. I'll take your word for it. It must have been a premioum lot with huge upgrades. I have a client considering a home there right now and in the mid 600's it looks like a bargain relative to most of what's out there.

No upgrades...no premium lot. These are all "everything included" homes by Lennar.

Again, visit their website...www.bressiranch.com and open the link to "neighborhoods"...you will clearly see that they had "Anticipated prices" FROM the $800s clearly listed on their own website...now they are starting in the $630K range a/o 3/25/06 listing sheet I hold in my hand today.

Lennar is just the first to realize that they better cut and run soon, because they must know it is going to get ugly out there. I'd hate to be the guy who just recommended somebody buy a house anywhere in San Diego County right now.

I'm going to do MY BEST to get this shocking example of what is really going on into the UT and North County Times. People need to see it before they believe it...

Lennar made a profit Q1 2006, despite a 10% decline in sales in their West region. Their sales were up and profits were up.

I suspect sales were up only because they lowered their prices so much.

I suspect profits are up because they sold off a bunch of land. The U-T article didn't say how much land they sold, only that the land sale generated more profit than last reporting period.

I'm a commercial appraiser (since 1985) and I also do some residential appraisal review work for one of the nation's biggest banks. I've been working in SD County since 1990 and worked in the OC/LA areas prior to that. I also develop and teach continuing education courses for appraisers.

I've reviewed a number of appraisals from the different "communities" in Bressi Ranch, including Heather Court. In the last 3 weeks I've reviewed 2 appraisals for purchases from there; one in the "Cassia" project and another in the "Canterbury" project.

By my count there have been 10 sales at $890k and above in Heather Court, the highest two being the models for the project, both of which sold back in 02/2005. In the beginning of the project, back in early-mid 2005, they were selling the 3019 SqFt model in the $800k+ ranges, with most of the sales closing in the mid-800s. The three yr2006 sales have closed at $834k and $757k (01/2006), and at $729k (03/2006). Keep in mind that these closing prices are greatly influenced by the levels of options and upgrades chosen. For example, the model homes always sell with every possible option, including landscaping and patios, window coverings, artwork, rugs, and sometimes furnishings. This is the reason why there is such a big spread in these new projects for otherwise similar homes. Ironically, it's been my experience that after about 5 years or so, the premiums paid by the original buyers tend to basically disappear in the resale market. In my opinion, options and upgrades are a huge "profit center" for the developers, if you catch my meaning.

The lower 01/2006 and 03/2006 closed sales are a good $70k lower than the previous low sales in 05/2005. That $70k doesn't even represent a 10% reduction, though. While it would seem to be a little quick for such a big markdown, I'm not particularly surprised because I've seen it go like this before. I knew it was going to happen sooner or later, and by my reckoning it's going to get a lot worse as time goes on - we ain't seen nothing yet.

Speaking for myself, I wouldn't want to be one of the yr2005 buyers right now. Based on their recorded financing and considering it costs money to sell, it looks like about half of them effectively have no equity right now. I sincerely hope they all have staying power.

Bugs, can you describe how the last real estate downturn played out?

I think all cycles play out a little differently. But I also think that past predicts the future.

I remember in 01/1990 seeing a real softening in most of the residential markets. For about 3 months it was real spotty and inconclusive. By about 03/1990 most of the appraisers had figured out that the market was in decline. It took the newspapers about 6 months before they picked up on that and by then it was way too late for some of the "last fools".

The residential markets here started to decline and the foreclosures started to rack up. As the lenders' reserves got quickly eaten up by foreclosing, then selling the foreclosed properties under quick sale conditions, the feds would close them in order to stem the losses. That only made it worse. More lenders went down, more properties came on the market as "bank-owned foreclosures". Believe me, when potential buyers see that sign on a property they know they can lowball the offer even more because the lender is under pressure to sell and they have to liquidate. It sets the market because at the same time the prices are declining that decline is contributing to the rate of foreclosures which in turn swell the inventory and cause further declines. This is the flip side of the "real estate never goes down in value" line that has been so popular these last few years.

As the declines picked up speed, it affected almost every price bracket, but especially the middle ranges. The bottom end lost a bit, but the middle and top price ranges collapsed like an accordion. At one point there wasn't a whole lot of price differential between what would have previously passed for a $350k home and a $150k home.

The subdivision developers had to finish their projects and get out, no matter what, so they had to cut their pricing. That made selling their homes even harder, and on top of that it spurred some lawsuits from previous buyers. The developer had basically undercut their purchase prices leaving them upside down. People were suing because a $50k loss was enough to ruin them. There were a whole lot of people who were basically trapped in their homes for a good 6 or 7 years, until prices caught up in the 1996-1997 time frame. Those who could hang made it through and those that didn't added to the inventory.

All that happened in a market where the peak had topped out about 25% - 30% above the long term trendline. Now that we're 60% above the trendline I don't think I am capable of overestimating how bad it can get. We only wish we were looking at $50k losses. Heck, that one model in Bressi Ranch has basically lost $70k and things haven't even started going south yet.

Great Info Bugs,
To summarize:
Everythings Included from Lennar doesnt mean you cant spend more than these nicely appointed homes come with. Flooring which isnt included can easily vary by $50K or more.

The highest sales were models which were very well appointed and are likely outliers pricewise as they are in most cases.

The real decline in these homes based upon builder concessions looks to be about $70,000 which is a roughly 10% discount. Additional financing concessions and free upgrades could push this up higher and its not out of the question for the discount to be closer to $100,000.

As a point of comparison, I have seen 5 to 10% declines in the value of many resale homes (particularly those sold at the peak of the frenzy Feb 2004 - May 2004) also so this seems to be on target with what is going on around here and perhaps slightly ahead of the curve.

Sorry but no 25% Off Fire Sales........YET?

Look sdrealtor,

I appreciate your insight. I also can assure you that my posts are delivered with insight as well. Let's assume that the model home in Wisteria Place had $100K in upgrades (and I am being generous here). Since it sold for $875,500 and an equivalent home could be had today for $761,000 ($661,000 plus $100K) it looks more like a 13% discount YOY. But David Lie-reah and Blanche Evans and Appleton-Young said things could only go up?!?!

The point I am making here is this: some poor bastard is pretty unhappy about this (ask them in the sales office) and you said it yourself...the good deals in this community are killing the resales in the next door community. If people only knew how to extrapolate...

We have "summitted" the slippery slope and the downward pressure is ON, big time. As we stopped in on open houses and the models in 4S Ranch yesterday and shared the news of what you could get just 2.5 miles from the ocean (2400 sq. ft nicely appointed home) for $661,000 (new construction no less), the realtors and model salespeople were paying keen attention and they were like...REALLY?!?!

On another note, bugs said it best when he said this price drop in Bressi Ranch is surprising, considering this thing hasn't begun to go south yet. My aim in distributing this info to the North County Times and UT is to encourage people to wise up, think for themselves, and ask "why would I buy ANYTHING right now, when I know that when sales don't pick up, I am going to have the re-sale value of my house SEVERELY UNDERCUT by someone else who needs to sell and has a MUCH LOWER COST BASIS than I do?"

Nobody wants to be immediately underwater. Most people do not realize that if they buy today, they are doing so pretty darn near a "generational peak" and they are all immediately underwater with no hope for a life ring.

Think of the poor schmucks who bought those models in Bressi Ranch...what will their houses be appraised for next year and the year after? Nobody should buy in there if they know the builder has a history of dropping prices in there without the crap even hitting the fan!! Geez...

lendingbubbleco,
I'm as bearish as the next and have been since I saw what happened in Spring 2004. I just want to make sure the facts are not misrepresented. Your Insight as shown by the headline of this thread is a 25% decline in Bressi Ranch whhich is clearly hyperbole. If you already live here and are invested in the area the house you buy will likely fare about the same probably better (if you buy new) than what you currently have. If you living situation changes (need more or less room, different job location, promotion etc.) why not move? Now if you are coming to the area with new money to invest in a home, that's a little different.

FYI...models are very overdone and frequently have $100 to 200K in additional upgrades. I'd never buy one but know clients that have lots of money and don't care. All they want is a designer perfect move-in ready house. Different strokes for......

I agree that 25% is not 13%, and that 13% seems to be the number right now. But it does seem to me that you are trying hard to make it sound that prices are not going down much. For example, you first expressed doubts that any house there sold for 875K.

Just curious, do you tell your clients that you are a real estate bear and that prices could go down by 10-20% (very optimistic scenario) over the next few years and that their equity could get wiped out?

Are you saying, sdrealtor, that a San Diegan wanting to move-up should go ahead and make the move, since a decline will hit you the same, whether you live in your current house or in the new house?

I'm sure sdrealtor and others who are bearish are having a difficult time reconciling the conflicting obligations of earning a living and telling people that this is the worst time in the history of the US to buy a house.

Personally, I felt somewhat guilty selling my house. My buyers were basically clueless, and I felt I deceived them by giving them the opportunity to buy my house. Free markets, yes, but I'm the one who socked it to them. My big windfall will be paid for by them. They'll have to work many years to pay my windfall. They may end up in bankruptcy. They took a 5/1 ARM, 100% financing. But I had no fiduciary duty to these folks. A realtor does, or so the ethics state.

Honorable realtors convinced themselves of one of many denial points, so they can live with themselves and keep making the sales pitch. They say the market can never go down, that it is softening but will pick back up, that you can lose money by staying put as well as by moving so you might as well move, etc. If you didn't mislead yourself, you would have to get out of the business. So denial is the easier way.

Realtors must know they are leading every new homeowner toward potential bankruptcy. That's an enormous burden. Personally, I'd have to change jobs. I couldn't do that to people.

Powayseller,

I can identify with you feeling sorry for the person to whom you sold. I felt the same when I sold my Scripps Ranch house last Nov. But, don't forget that the "early adopters" on the housing bubble bandwagon were saying the market had topped out in late 2002. Some “really smart data driven” person who sold then would miss 2 years of 20%+ increases in San Diego.

Who can predict irrationality? By definition it cannot be scheduled or predicted except as a probability function.

So, I figured the 27 year old single guy who borrowed over $600k to buy my place could just as easily be boasting about his impeccable timing a year or two from now…

Anyone who seeks advice from a real estate agent on whether or not to buy or sell a house is just plain stupid and will probably learn a hard lesson in the meaning of "conflict of interests."

Last time I checked a 13% decline or even a 5 to 10% decline sounds like alot to me. Frankly, I still have a hard time beleiving a Wisteria Place home sold for 875K. The only explanation I can see is that it was a model home. A lot of the information on the Bressi Ranch sales flip flopped between Wisteria Place (the cheapest neighborhood) and Heather Court (the 3rd most expensive neighborhood after WP and Primrose Point)which share the same street names and are located adjacent to each. Many of the sales refereed to were in Heather Court where prices where considerably higher and homes much nicer. If you haven't been there, Wisteria Place homes are essentially dettached townhomes with garages behind the homes accessed via shared alleys. The have no driveways and no backyards (really!) and are priced lower because of that. Heather Court homes are you more traditional house with backyards, driveways accessing your garage.

Frankly, i'm not trying to make it sound anyway.....just reporting the facts. We all have opinions as to what is going to happen (and I share many of yours) but they are opinions. Some will be right and some will be wrong. Forbes Magazine had a cover story in 2002 that really estate prices were going to crash and that no one should buy real estate. It was their opinion. Those that didnt listen experienced rapid appreciation and the opportunity to take advantage of 30 yr fixed rate refinancing in the low 5%'s. They will give back some or all of that appreciation but they will keep their 5% fixed rate mortgages if they were smart enough to get them....I did!

I do not promote myself as a financial expert forecaster, it's just not part of my job. My job is to help people who want to purchase a home find the best one for tthem and to get them the best possible price and terms. Housing is a basic need and everyone needs it. If everyone decided to rent there would be people on the streets as there isnt enough rental property out there. Furthermore, most people would not be happy living in a property they dont an ownership interest in. I encourage people to buy what they truly need, what they truly can afford today and to finance in such a manner that they will not be faced with rising mortgage payments they might not be able to afford. If they say they a merely looking to buy to make money, I express my opinion that its unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Okay. We are not down 25%, just 10% or so...I am most interested in your interest in making sure the facts are "not misrepresented". I sure as hell haven't seen ONE single Realtor out there making a statement to the local rag sheets, trying to set the record straight about a SH*T TON of misrepresentations over the last two and a half years. Where were you?

Also, I'm sure you have been asked the question about "is now a good time to buy"? What has been your answer? Yes..no? Or have you given tacit, yet not outright approval (like a nod) when someone has asked you like this: "I better buy now or risk pricing out forever, right?" If so, this is intellectually dis-honest and, of course, about as mis-leading as it gets.

Glad to hear of someone as pissed about mis-leading statements as I am. Since you are in the business and I am not, why don't you get out there and do something about it? It will benefit ALL of us, as the sooner this bubble bursts (and it will..it can't be stopped now, nor should it be) the sooner folks can return to treating their houses as homes, rather than investments. (This is the way is almost always has been in this country.)

I have encouraged people to call the sales office for Wisteria Place. I did. And I found out that what I am talking about is accurate. Also, you have ignored the clues I described like visiting the website for Bressi Ranch which is www.bressiranch.com and then clicking on communities, scrolling over the neighborhood of Wisteria Place and seeing the words (PLAIN AS DAY) "Anticipated pricing from the low 800s", then clicking through and seeing the words "from the mid 600s", you are ignoring something that is obvious. Considering your "upgrades" to the models which the website said would be in the "800s"...it should be easy to see that a house or two or ten may have sold in there for WELL OVER $800,000.

I HAVE been there. I have the prices a/o 3/25/06 on my desk. I said this was going to be eye-opening.

Websites are often wrong. The prices listed for Wisteria Place are anticiapted pricing starting in the low 800's while while Primose Point which has higher priced, nicer, larger homes on larger lots says they are anticipated to start in the upper 700's. Clearly the reference to Wisteria Place pricing is erroneous.

Powayseller you should feel guilty about the sale of your home. You find it easy to attack me, my ethics and my profession. How do you justify selling a "Poway Home" with a Lakeside mailing address (per the tax records) and advertising it as having 2293 sq ft when its listed in the tax records at 1658 sq ft? It was advertised as 1658 sq ft when you bought it in 2000. Perhaps there are unpermitted additions but I don't see them mentioned anywhere in the listing. Of course, you probably emphasized that is was "quality construction" and "built to code" after pulling a buyer in under the false pretense of a larger home. How did that feel? How do you sleep at night?

Dude, when did "used-house salesman" become a "profession"?

Seriously though, the uselessness of most real estate salespeople is what gets most people's goat right now. And it is also what will ENSURE that we soon will arrive at a flat fee structure for real estate transactions...something like $2500 per dwelling like the guy up in Seattle is doing. I'd love to bring THAT franchise down here. Hell...it might be the only way to help those poor fools paying today's prices in Bressi, 4S, and any other "Ranch" you can think of, get out from under those stucco sh&tboxes in a year or two.

Methinks, playtime with the realtor is over.

I have no voice in the media as no one ever asked me but I have consistently voiced my concerns to my piers and my clients. The answer if its a good time to buy really depends upon when it was asked and what the individuals specific reasons are. For some the answer was yes. For many, the answer was no. I have about 6 clients that I have discouraged from buying. They are waiting on the sidelines per my recommendation and will buy when the time is right. You know nothing about me and your inferred attacks are unwarranted. gFear of getting priced out was never a good reason to buy and I've never sold a home to a client for that reason. All my clients buy homes for their families to live in and I've never serviced the investor market.

Its clear you despise realtors and blame them for rising prices. When a house sells for too little it's the realtors fault, when prices skyrocket you blame realtors. You truly give us too much credit. This is America and it is a free market economy. Supply and demand drive prices. Excess demand sent prices up and excess supply are now bringing them down. Sorry but I dont have the ability to manipulate prices. Do you despise car dealers for selling over priced luxury vehicles that depreciate 30% the minute you drive them off the lot? Do you despise the fast food restaurants that are poisoning our children? Do you really beleive a major crash will "benefit ALL of us" or just the folks out there that got out and are hoping to buy back in at lower prices. Do you really beleive widespread foreclosures and bankruptcies would be for the greater good? I for one do not wish that on anyone.

Sorry for the rant, but you back me in a corner and I'll come out swinging.........

I agree there is much incompetence in my profession. I see it every day. I also see it in just about every other profession. The only way to survive with a flat fee structure is very high volume. Unfortunately, you will have to pay your employees very little and the competence level would get worse. With volume falling you wont be able to do the high volume part. Sorry but flat fee structures are already here and they are struggling mightily.

By the way Powayseller, sorry for the attack. I'm sure you have good explanation. Just wanted you to see what it feels like to be attacked by someone unjustly

I apologize too. I do not blame realtors for the mess we are in. The American public at-large is composed of all those jackasses we went to high school went, the majority of whom are extremely stupid. Sometimes, when I consider who I am driving down the highway with and I consider the judgment and reactionary skills of those same people, I ask myself if I am crazy for being in such close proximity to "rolling disaster". These are the people, along with the Fed, that I blame.

I actually know and respect many realtors. Many are sh&theads, too. Just open up the Sunday UT housing section every Sunday and you'll see some dickhead telling Joe Q. Public that it has never been a better time to buy. So...sorry for the personal attack. (Unless YOU are that guy...just kidding)

Finally, on the "major crash" subject....since the pendulum always swings to the extremes with asset price bubbles, it appears inevitable that it will occur with this housing boom as well. My point is that the sooner it happens, the sooner we can return to a "normal" market. There will be pain and I don't truly wish pain on anyone...my friends and family own houses. I have owned and sold two houses myself. You must be tired, as I am, of hearing the VAST MAJORITY of agents talking about a plateau, soft landing, or this being a return to "normal" market conditions. This is what kills me.

Great, you found me! But you are wrong about your assumptions.

The house was 2293 sq ft plus garage when we sold it. We got our Certificate of Occupancy on 9/6/05. The buyers had an appraiser, and I still have my blueprints from my construction.

We used the Poway zip code of 92064, because we are in the Poway Unified School district, and the property was 2 blocks outside the Poway city limits. The property is in the unincorporated area of the County, and the mail is delivered by Lakeside (thus the Lakeside mailing address).

I think the lesson for you, sdrealtor, is you don't need to come out swinging when you are honest.

And I will accept your apology, if you care to make it.

You said in your reply to bugs:

"The real decline in these homes based upon builder concessions looks to be about $70,000 which is a roughly 10% discount. Additional financing concessions and free upgrades could push this up higher and its not out of the question for the discount to be closer to $100,000."

So are you contesting your own statement now?

I just see rampant speculation in your posts. Plus unwarranted insults to Powayseller. Bugs, it seems has actually appraised homes out at Bressi Ranch and he says that even with additions, prices have slipped by around 70K and you agreed originally.

I asked you a straight question. You claim to be a real estate bear. Do you say so to your clients or give them spiel about coastal property, will apppreciate 6% every year, etc., which I have heard from every single realtor I talked to? Forget about forecasts from you or Forbes. Do you feel that it's your duty to warn that prices may slip by 10% (optimistic case) over the next five years, especially you being a "real-estate bear"? Well, it may not start this year or next, but you being a "bear" must be sure that it'll slip sometime?

I already offered it and I offer it again. Here is part of my frustration, you seem to be blaming realtors for this mess when it is in fact the general public that is to blame as much or more. I read your posts as to why anyone would not sell and it seems to me that you view a house as a finacial instrument. I do not, I view it as a home filled with love and surrounded by a community which I support and which siupports my family. You seem to have missed out on the community part and it appears as though you are attempting to find it on this board. My advice, take the time and independence you have gained by selling your home for a large cash profit, walk away from the keyboard and spend more time out in the community. You are surrounded by many warm and caring people that are what make this country great.

As for me, I will probably be checking out for a while. I just got some very bad news about one of my children and if tommorrows visit to Children's confirms things, I will have a young child immoblized in a wheel chair for the next couple years to heal an ortopaedic condition. The fact that we are surrounded by wonderful friends and neighbors that will be there to support us and that my child will have the support of his long time friends means more than any capital gain I could have realized by living a nomadic life.

Peace to you and I wish you all only the best!