San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

LOL. Now that's a headline. I was wide-eyed till I read the story.

A little confused by the double-speak:

"The worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression will probably end in the third quarter, but there is uncertainty over the speed and duration of the economic recovery."

So it'll be over, but not sure how fast it will recover or how long it'll be recovered.

Way to CYA.

for some reason this scene from Catch-22 comes to mind - it must be the idea that we are supposed to accept something that is blatant bullshit as making sense

~

Maj. Major Major Major: Sergeant, from now on, I don't want anyone to come in and see me while I'm in my office. Is that clear?
First Sgt. Towser: Yes, sir? What do I say to people who want to come in and see you while you're gone?
Maj. Major Major Major: Tell them I'm in and ask them to wait.
First Sgt. Towser: For how long?
Maj. Major Major Major: Until I've left.
First Sgt. Towser: And then what do I do with them?
Maj. Major Major Major: I don't care.
First Sgt. Towser: May I send people in to see you after you've left?
Maj. Major Major Major: Yes.
First Sgt. Towser: You won't be here then, will you?
Maj. Major Major Major: No.
First Sgt. Towser: I see, sir. Will that be all?
Maj. Major Major Major: Also, Sergeant, I don't want you coming in while I'm in my office asking me if there's anything you can do for me. Is that clear?
First Sgt. Towser: Yes, sir. When should I come in your office and ask if there's anything I can do for you?
Maj. Major Major Major: When I'm not there.
First Sgt. Towser: What do I do then?
Maj. Major Major Major: Whatever has to be done.
First Sgt. Towser: Yes, sir.

I've posted it before, but for anyone thinking about listening to what the "experts" say:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/...

The Recession is over in Q3

Is that when the depression starts?

I do not think you need to care about recession unless you are an economist. Definitely home prices are pretty much stabilizing in San Diego county. Local market conditions are more important than recession for a residential home buyer.
Recession is a technical term. Economists will know only after the recession was over. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) takes a few months (6 to 9 months after recession was over) to determine if a peak or trough has occurred in the US.

It will be a jobless recovery with declining standards of living and mass defaults.

Hmmm... How can you justify stating this? Maybe at the low end you have demand, but anything over 250K is still experiencing price correction and exhibits limited demand. From 95% of the articles I read it's going to get worse in the middle and higher price ranges.

Hey as long as government spending can replace consumer spending they may be right. With .gov spending like a soccer mom at Fashion Valley and no foreign countries cancelling the credit cards GDP may go positive. It just won't stay there.

Recession simply means the rate of change of GDP is negative. Hence if GDP falls by 10% and then remains constant, recession has ended. A technical term like GDP should not be used as an indicator of people's feeling of well being. A famous example is that GDP can be increased if wives demand salary from husbands (for house work) and husbands yield to the demand and pay. Adds nothing to value of goods/services but brings it under accounting for GDP.

fortune teller pigg?

Good primer on GDP:

G.D.P.R.I.P.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/10/opinio...

George Soros basically stated today he believes we may see positive GDP in the 3rd or 4th quarter this year, but it's only temporary due to gov't spending and the resultant consumer confidence multiplier.

He sees very slow growth well into the next decade once the gov't money runs out.

It will be a jobless recovery with declining standards of living and mass defaults.

Arraya, this makes no sense. If you have no job creation, there is no recovery. Especially when you include declining living standards, leaving out mass defaults. None of those things is indicative of recovery all of them together cut off any chance of recovery. The best you could hope for is a decreasing recession under such circumstances.

Really though, the bottom callers have been coming out in droves these last few months. Mostly because the stock market is on a tear. The stock market is on a tear because of lots and lots of money loaned to the banks by the govt. That is inflationary, but thats about all that is. Good luck getting that inflationary pressure into consumer pricing. Joblessness will see that this doesn't happen. More cash flowing into the banking system will just help destroy faith in the dollar as all that money is trying desperately to find a home with nowhere productive to go. Meanwhile the people who could use it aren't getting it and are losing jobs and homes. That is NOT inflationary.

Long term inflation is the danger, short term, deflation is still the Force Majeure.

Josh

The gov't money is gonna run out? I just don't see that happening ever. Maybe if everyone collectively just left the U.S. and no one left to tax. Other than that, expect your great, great grandkids to be giving money to banks and gov't and their future generations.

I saw this on yahoo finance, interesting:

New Bull, New Bubble, New Meltdown by 2012
by Paul B. Farrell
Tuesday, August 11, 2009

http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/arti...

Basically, this article suggests we will be in a full on depression by 2012 due to a massive global credit meltdown. Due in part to a failure of the central banking system.

Obviously, my sarcasm did not come off too well;) I don't believe in the recovery conspiracy.

I agree deflation is here and picking up steam. What looks to be shaping up is a deflationary collapse followed by crisis of confindence in the dollar to hyper-devaluation, which is not inflation because quantity of money has nothing to do with it.

So it will still be confusing for the analysts because the dollar will be going down in value and disappearing simulatneously. It's the worst of both worlds. Technically, it will be deflation(contraction of money supply) with devaluing from the world going away from the dollar. Which will happen once deflation is in full effect.

Still both the deflationists and inflationists will be claiming victory.

That's what is going to happen. Starting with an Oct.-Nov stock market crash, mass defaults and up surge in unemployment dovetailing into a dollar crisis.

Death to the inflationists, victory is ours! I said something a few years ago on Ben's blog and its been truer than I had predicted.

We'll see inflation in things you need, deflation in things you want.