San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

You could show them the bubble primer on this site, then point out that with credit tightening there is no more 'air' (as it were) left.

Get them a copy of 'Crash Proof' by Peter Schiff, as well.

Something to point out (that keeps me optimistic), is that since SD was on the forefront of the bubble it should also be the first to correct. So if they can keep their job, find a nice rental, sit back and enjoy the weather.

Hey sd_bear, I know this really cool web site that explains some of these things. This guy with a nerd's eye view has several articles in a Primer section at the top center of his web page.
You can start here:
http://piggington.com/the_san_diego_hous...
He also routinely has articles on voiceofsandiego.org.

SD Bear the interesting thing about your post is that it confirms domestic out-migration is still intact.

I can tell you it absolutely is LA_Renter. Until I found this site last spring I had a really hard time justifying to my girlfriend why we should stay here rather than move to Texas with her parents (who by absolute sheer luck sold at the peak of the bubble in irvine).

She still buys what the mass media reports over what I'm telling her, but she is at least willing to ride out the coming storm. She say's I'm the only person she knows that thinks house prices are going to plummet.

Trust me SD Bear I can empathize with your situation. My household had those same discussions. Fortunately my wife worked in the mortgage industry in the late 90's and had some background on this subject. During the peak we did an analysis of the mortgage products that were being used and the total lack of underwriting and her jaw literally dropped open and the weight from my shoulders was lifted along with the nightmares of being pressured into buying into this market.

I guess what I find interesting is that she says you are the only person she knows who thinks home prices are going to tank. I guess to most people on this board that debate is basically over. Now its turning to how much and what will happen to the desirable areas (in that how much will they fall, not are they going to fall). Show her the link on case shiller from this site

http://piggington.com/september_case_shi...

Make the point that right now home prices are in the process of falling and work back to the reasons why thats happening using the primer people have pointed out. The best of luck to you I know how it feels.

Let them go!

They are right. If they don't go, prices won't go down as much. The reason simple, they'll jump back in before it get's back to fundamentals. Then hordes of people that waited instead of emigrating will jump back in and prices will rocket up again, then speculators will start watching reruns of "Flip That House" and the cycle will repeat.

Seriously though, California is not likely to see reasonable prices by national standards any time soon. The prices will be much lower than they are now, but for the price, you will still less than half of what you could get elsewhere, even adjusted for the difference in wages.

I try to show her data every now and again, especially the case-shiller trends - but its hard even when a house drops 33% of its value, that its still 50% more expensive than something similar in Houston, TX.

The only problem is if you were offering me a house for 1 dollar in Houston I still wouldn't take it. I just simply don't ever want to live in Texas, and if it means still paying a bit of a premium once prices plummet to remain in San Diego, I'd do it. I really think the problem for her is that she doesn't care about dropping prices unless it actually means we can afford a house. Since we're only pulling in about 85k together that is still a long ways away.

Just go for an I/O ARM w/a teaser rate and you'll be surprised what you can afford on $85K!

Give yourself a 30% raise and add 10 years to your life - Move out of Kalifornia!