San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

The 8280 Katherine Claire Ct has been sitting on the market for 100 days with no luck.

But some idiot has exactly the same house down the street asking a ludicrous $829,000 price. (The cheaper $680k resale has nicer stone facade).

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076074881-15...

Purchased for $777,900 12/2006

What is the 2nd seller smoking? Only an air head would buy this house especially when the Alcala developer is selling the fully upgraded model for $829,990!! Same price, what a coincidence. (The model has solar also).

Ugly tile and walls. Who picked that salmon color kitchen cabinets. There is no way I would buy this house for $680, since I would have to gut it and add some color to it. What a joke!

Alex,

If I were a doctor, I'd say you have a medium case of sour grapes.

I'd gladly pick up a home like this in Del Sur as a rental if falls below $500k. This area imho is up and coming, which would be relatively decent commute either to RB or Sorrento Valley. The only thing is I don't like how there is a Section 8 housing development around the neighborhood.

WHich community is section 8?

I think Del Sur has great potential - for the next economic cycle. It is now in the same position Fairbanks Ranch was at the outset of the last downtrend. All the infrastructure is done, much of what can be built there has been built, and by the time it comes around again it will be stabilized.

I like Del Sur more than I like the little pocket projects that surround it. However, I think this time around it's going to get a beatdown.

I agree with you Bugs about Del Sur. I like it too. The park with pool is nice and the street have a nice strip of trees and landscape between the road and the sidewalks. Once the trees mature, the landscape will look nice. In 20 years, this will be a nice area.

But the prices at Del Sur are high compared to 4S, just 2 miles down the road. You can get more square feet for your money at 4S which is more of a generic development.

But Del Sur is hardly Fairbanks (I live there). You may be thinking Santa Luz which is just south. At Del Sur, perhaps Avaron, Gables Crossings and Sentinels are more Fairbanks like.

If I had family income 250K a year I would be looking at Del sur. Great School sytem. Good Loacation. I like the homes and the people it is attracting (Higher Wage Earner). Biggest Downside I see is the Higher tax Rates and Mello Roos. This is something I have a very challenging time getting accepting.

It looks like Shea home has some Del Sur listing on the MLS.

If a 2500sf listing can't sell for $680,000... what makes them think at 2000sf house can sell for more in the same neighborhood.

8361 Bristol Ridge Ln
San Diego, CA 92127
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071069530-83...

Standard Pacific has some listings in the low $600k.
8453 Kern Crescent
San Diego, CA 92127
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076073564-84...

Standard Pacific also has a 2781sf at $698,900
15817 Paseo Del Sur
San Diego, CA 92127
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076075092-15...

It looks like the builders are undercutting the resales in the market place, but also on the MLS.

I predict that 2008 will bring a bloodbath in Del Sur with losses in the $200k for the resellers.

The more expensive houses like Avaron might see $500k losses.

That last house is incorrectly listed as 2700 sqft. I think they meant the lot. Those homes were max 2000 sqft.

OK, so I have a mild obsession with Del Sur.

This looks like a good price for the sf.

2428sf, $591,9000
15898 Paseo Del Sur #47
San Diego, CA 92127
MLS#: 076075153

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076075153-15...

Looks like Casero will get hammered because of they are paired homes competing with single family homes.

http://www.standardpacifichomes.com/find...

You have a good grip on DS PW... Agreed bigtime about Casero.

SD Realtor

Alex,

My mistake this morning. I thought the original post was referring to the RP off of Camino Del Sur instead of Del Sur, Del Sur...

To my knowledge there are no section 8's in del sur. There is some in the 92129 off of Camino Del Sur.

And speaking of fees...some of the houses have 2 HOA fees! Yikes!

There are section 8s between Del Sur and 4S Ranch (closer to Del Sur actually).

Raybyrnes-- If you had family income of $250K a year, you'd look elsewhere. People who make that kind of money have a whole 'nother level of expectations.

sdcellar, you mean that apartment at the end of paseo del sur (on your left hand side as you drive west on Camino del Norte) is actually section 8?

BMIT posts on Del Sur

Fat_Lazy_Union,

There is Section 8 up in Del Sur. It's on the far eastern end of the development. It's a fairly large apartment complex that sits between 4S and Del Sur. You can check out the future development for the area here. They haev a long way to go. http://www.blackmountainranch.com/

The property tax is 1.9%, plus HOA $175, on a $600k house, you're look at an additional $1,000 a month in property tax. No community is worth that. Plus, the one lane road they built heading south to 56 is already a nightmare in the AM commute. town'..

According to stanpac, at least in the Cabrillo development, Mello Roos can increase by as much as 2% a year and have a duration of 35 years. I'm no expert on Mello Roos but this seems like a lot to me.

i don't know what asphalt costs these days, but seems like they should have it covered for those kind of fees. maybe will have some money left over to build a new stadium for the Chargers as well?

The max tax is 1.9%, and yep it's for 35 years. lol

i don't know what asphalt costs these days, but seems like they should have it covered for those kind of fees.

according the the amount of mello roos they charge now compared to 2002, the price of asphalt should have increased by at least 2-3x.

ocrenter-- Just confirming what LostCat said, but yeah, those apartments are the section 8s.

On Mello-Roos, I'm curious if anybody knows the extent to which developers used to cover those costs. It's really quite amazing they've been able to sucker people into paying a higher percentage of higher property values for it.

It seems like both the city governments and developers have colluded to extort ridiculous amounts of money from new homebuyers. Poway must love the money they're getting. 4S Ranch and Del Sur must have helped with their recent major remodels of Poway High School and Midland Elementary. The latter of which was basically torn down and re-built, and neither of which serves 4S or Del Sur.

I agree that Mello Roos is local government and developer collusion to extract more money out of home buyers.

There should be a taxpayer revolt against it and do away with Mello Roos completely. That way builders will have to charge more for the houses. If buyers don't buy, then builders have to cut the prices. It's that simple. As a buyer, it works out to be the same. Either you pay with the mortgage or through Mello Roos tax.

Mello Roos is a hidden tax that few buyers paid attention to when house were appriciating at double digit. Now they feel the real pain.

So several months ago and went to Del Sur and Pacific Highlands Ranch with some friends and dissuaded them from buying.

You'd think that they would be kissing my feet right now. Well, no, they are still "working" with their Realtor. Well, I'm done with these people, let them catch the falling knife.

Of course, ocrenter, one of most reliable bloggers posted an excellent update on the very same homes I've been tracking. Thanks, ocrenter.

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/...

I have family income as described above and the only expectation I have is a realistic price. My constraint, as with most of my peers, is that I already own a home in another state that I do not intend to sell. Carrying a $4k mortgage in San Diego in addition to the other house doesn't make sense. So here we are, waiting to buy until house prices make sense in SD. It's happening but I don't see buying until mid 2009 at the earliest.