San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis

are you joking? I know Realtors who have been in the business for 20 yrs and are crying right now because not a soul is showing interest in anything. One realtor told me that business is so dead he hasn't seen it this bad ever...another one in Vegas that I know said he is ready to get out of the market because there is 18 months inventory (27000 units) right now and rising and says the Vegas market is about to experience a crash of biblical proportions due to the madness of the last few years.

I suspect a similar crash for SoCal as well.

One well known real estate school that offers the classes and exam passing material is www.lumbleau.com

The test now for a real estate salesperson vs. broker is fairly similar, but there are more education requirements to become a broker. The Lumbleau website has information about it.

I am not affiliated with them in any way, just aware of them.

Don't believe the media hype...the worst of the slump is over, but don't expect the market to turn around for a while. Sure, we'll still see both sales and prices decline over the next year or two as housing settles into normal market conditions. Look for about 3-4% in San Diego over the next year (a bit more in parts of LA and Orange County)and it's true, Vegas will get hit harder than most areas, but the doom and gloom projected by most on this blog may be over-stated. Most, if not all, respected housing economists don't see it happening. Don't rely on the real estate industry either, though. They're obviously biased.

That being said, is it a good time to get into the industry? I would say no, unless it's something you want to do long term. Again, it's true that many agents are struggling right now and I expect many to leave the industry. Loan officers, too. I would talk to a few brokers and see what they have to say.

Finally, agents have to work for a broker. You will get your RE sales license and go work for a broker. You will be considered a real estate agent at that point. Later, you can get your brokers license if you want. I hope that helps.

Thanks for the comments guys, though I sohuld learn to how to spell Real first.

I know the market is slow, and even if the worst is not over yet, it's still something I'd like to look into. I have no intention of leaving my current job, and if I did get started anytime soon it would be part time initially.

You could say I'm getting a head start on the next bubble.

Personally, I hope it does keep going down so I can afford a house soon.

but the doom and gloom projected by most on this blog may be over-stated. Most, if not all, respected housing economists don't see it happening.

Most, if not all, respected housing economists predicted a soft-landing with "back to normal" appreciation. Then most of them predicted that prices would "level off". Now most of them are predicted that it will be "over soon" and we'll "back to low digit appreciation soon".

I agree with you that the market is not going to be as doom and gloom as some on this forum predict, but let's be careful what and whom we choose to believe.

My advice would be to take it up as a second job. You can do alot of work on the weekends, open houses, stuff like that. I think people who jump into it have serious misconceptions that right after they get thier licenses they will be out there taking listings and working directly with buyers.

So as long as you have a steady source of income that you can rely on to pay your rent and bills then take the classes, get your license, go work for a good brokerage and learn the business.

SD Realtor

Not to sound mean, but becoming an agent right now is possibly the worst timing possible. Not only is the population of RE agents at an all time high, after 10 years of home appreciation, loans that anyone can get, and stories of millionaire agents and thus new agents jumping on the easy money bandwagon, there are currently way too many available, especially in socal.

I personally know about 10 RE agents (friends and acquaintances), not related to me being in the business, and if I count other agents, probably another 40. Many of them are in the process of a career change, due to lack of buyers. Investors and speculators were 30-50% of many agents business, and now, thats all but gone.

Loan agents are dropping like flies, and they should. IMHO, these are the some of sleeziest members of our society. They have expected easy money this whole time, and now thats ending. I would not recommend becoming an agent anytime soon.

Friend just emailed me, he got a call from a realtor that met him once in the gym that he met through a friend of a friend. The realtor was asking if he knew anyone that was looking at buying.

He reads this site also, and asked the realtor why he should buy now, the realtor said that the market is a buyer's market and now is a great time to buy. After some playful banter, the realtor ended up not having much to say, and admitted it's a tough time and he's just trying to drum up business. Basically calling anyone and everyone he has had contact with.

Tough time for RE right now

I don't doubt that this is a terrible time to be on the selling side at all. I currently rent and if nothing else, thought I could become an agent for my own purchase.

Just as people jumped on the bandwagon when it was hot, I'm sure many will jump off now. So why get on now? Why not? I have a steady job, I don't necessarily need the income, by the time I actually become an agent the market may even be lower, but it will pick up again eventually, and by then I might have a clue on what you guys talk about on here. :)

I feel the same way as cooprider, I think now's a really good time to get your license, which is what I'm doing. The people who are trying to make their career at real estate will eventually follow the path of natural selection.

I plan on representing myself when I buy my own home, and in the mean time wait for prices to come down. In the mean time I think I should be able to do a few loans/refi's and maybe represent a couple buyers or sellers, for me it's going to be some extra downpayment/savings/vacation money.

The way I see it, regardless of the market, people will always need to buy and sell. I don't need to be out hustling for every deal out there to put food on the table, I already have a pretty good job.

[daydream] A couple deals a year would allow me to take my family to Aspen for skiing in the winter, Maui for spring break, and Disneyworld for a summer vacation...[/daydream]

Thanks for the comments guys, though I sohuld learn to how to spell Real first.

Actually mis-spellings in listings are quite common from what I've seen. You are qualified from that perspective.

[daydream] A couple deals a year would allow me to take my family to Aspen for skiing in the winter, Maui for spring break, and Disneyworld for a summer vacation...[/daydream]

[reality] Actually doing a couple deals a year is not as easy as it sounds. [reality]

I am also thinking about representing myself when I buy my own home

-Go for it and be contrarian. Since you have a ft job, why not learn the ropes part time now so that you are ready for the next run up. So long as it is not going to cost you too much to maintain your licence etc.

-I don't understand the logic behind saying that the worst is over. The problm I have is that the comments like that on this blog and in the papers never have any facts or data attached to them. Just vague, unsubstantiated statements. The fact that we have endured through a relatively short one year period of slight depreciation does not mean that things will suddenly turn around!

The qualifying courses needed to sit for the agent and broker exams are a joke. When I applied for the agent exam, my undergrad transcripts were analyzed and I was allowed credit for business law (3 semester units), economics (total 9 semester units), and accounting (my major). I was denied credit for finance (6 upper division units!) because I hadn't taken "real estate finance". The exam was a joke also...if you can memorize lots of arcane information and understand junior high math, you'll pass.

Later, through an approved on-line school, I completed the so-called coursework for the broker exam, including "real estate finance". The class consisted of more memorization of factoids, such as learning all the acronyms - FNMA, FreddieMac, FIRREA etc., and very basic explanation of topics such as the monetary system, the secondary mortgage market, loan, deed of trust, beneficiary. Not even an iota of the rigor of my non-real estate finance classes, and no mention of details such as IRR, present value, investment analysis and comparison.

When I compare the coursework and exam requirements for becoming a real estate broker to the coursework I had to complete and the exam I passed to become a CPA, it becomes apparent that no great intellect or reasoning abilities are required for the former.

Yeah, but a CPA shouldn't be compared to a broker IMO, I would naturally think the CPA reqs are much harder

Almost nothing in business compares to the reqs to pass the CPA exam. I took it and passed in 95 and it was a bear. The pass rate at that time was less than 15%. This is why I laugh at the idea of a broker or worse a realtor calling themselves professionals...they don't have a freaking clue...

There are professionals and jokesters in just about every field. BTW, I passed the CPA exam in 87.

I agree- CPA is much tougher and more respected than used car sales people ahem most realtors and mortgage con artists these days.

Congrats- I am thinking of doing my MBA in finance/accounting and study for CPA to enhance my career prospects. Its a good career path and pays quite well.

A CPA with a law degree is powerful combination for business!!!

Hey cooprider,

(nice name btw)

Could you give me some predictions for stocks you think are good buys?

I'll short 'em and make a killing.

(sorry for the cheap shot, couldn't help it)

JWM (the other SD Realtor here)

I have a BSEE from UCSD and I also direct a staff of ASIC designers for PCI Express technology used in storage and networking applications. My expertise is in verification and system architecture.

SD Realtor

I don't understand your point SD Realtor?? I don't care what else you do. I'm sure those designations were difficult to attain, but the Realtor designation as well as a broker designation is not...period. That's why there are so many scumbags who got into the industry to begin with during the boom. Why? Because they didn't have to go study for 3 years before sitting for a exam that spans two full consecutive eight hour days.

By the way, I also hold a masters in project management and I'm PMP as well. FWIW.

JWM -

The point is that you wrote,

"This is why I laugh at the idea of a broker or worse a realtor calling themselves professionals...they don't have a freaking clue..."

You have painted the entire industry to be a bunch of bumbling idiots. This is not true. I am not saying that there are not a whole lot of idiots that are licensed. Believe me I have dealt with lots of them. I am saying that I am not one of them and I have dealt with many others who are quite bright and have a diverse interest in other professions and are quite educated.

My point is that there are those like myself who are much more educated then you implied in your post. I have no power over what the state mandates in order to be called a real estate professional. The designation is from the state DRE. Don't hate the players, hate the game, because you get to choose the realtor or broker you work with. If you get an idiot change. Commissions are not law, they are negotiable by law. Nobody forces you to use these people.

SD Realtor

cooprider14, to answer your original post its really up to you and how driven you are. There are agents that will prosper in an up or down market because they love what they do and are completely devoted to it. That’s the beauty of something like RE because your success is entirely up to you. Don't get me wrong though its not easy and starting brand new in this market makes it even that much harder but if you think you have what it takes then give it a shot.
Work close with your broker and seasoned agents and learn everything you can. Even if you never do a single transaction you can at least save some money when you finally buy your own home. I do RE part time mainly for friends and family. Its not my main source of income but I'm glad I went out and got licensed. Just do what feels right for you.

My point in posting about the all-too-easy, quasi-academic requirements in order to sit for the CA agent or broker exam was to illustrate the low caliber of the CA state requirements. IMO this lack of standards has contributed in no small way to the current situation. That said, I worked with a wave of career transitioners, starting in 2000, who left the tech field in the Bay Area due to layoffs. For the most part I found those highly educated newbies to be ethical and competent.

I do immediately dismiss those bloggers who, painting with a broad brush, characterize all agents and brokers as charlatans who will ultimately flip burgers at MickeyD's (which I did in high school).

As in any field, there are the incompetent...the competent...the superstars...and always the ethical and those lacking ethics.

My post isn't specifically directed at you SD realtor. Second, your industry has been hijacked those idiots much the same way my former profession (accounting) was dealt a blow to reputation by the likes of Jeff Skilling and Arthur Anderson as a result of the Enron scandal...which by the way will be a drop in the ocean compared what we about to experience from this real estate mess.

Welcome to real world pal, don't preach to me about how an industry can be tainted the acts of a few...been there already.

I.T. is the same may, every hooligan that doesn't want to go to college and instead goes to some quick certification place is flooding the industry..

In a working environment it shows they know jack and just passed tests.

If you want an affordable institute but you can learn a lot especially in making your own strategy, just check out http://www.motivatedsellermagnet.net/. It's kinda old school but it can help you a lot. It has a step by step teaching process. Anything you need is there like advices from the experts, books as well as guides in starting into this business. All you need is patience and enthusiasm. Make some money...Good luck.

"My point in posting about the all-too-easy, quasi-academic requirements in order to sit for the CA agent or broker exam was to illustrate the low caliber of the CA state requirements. IMO this lack of standards has contributed in no small way to the current situation."

Real Estate agents are really small fish in all of this. I also don't believe for a minute that the decision to retreat from selling unqualified people houses or putting them in obviously stupid loans correlated to the degree that licensees are educated academically.

Thanks for the comments, and maybe I'm too idealistic, but my intention in becoming an agent would be along the lines of NOT putting people in homes they can't afford. I also feel I've invested a lot in learning about RE, so why not take advantage of that knowledge, even if I only ever did it to buy my own home. SD Realtor is a good example on a respectable agent who can make a living among what otherwise appears to be an industry of get rich quick thieves.

My misspelling of the title was inadvertant, though comical, and as someone said may qualify me for the role.