Aviara Tramonto - Trashmonto??

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Submitted by NewtoSanDiego on December 14, 2008 - 1:00pm

We'll I've pretty much focused on the south Carlsbad area to settle down, and specifically homes in the Carlsbad school district. My realtor has been showing me a few areas and I wanted to get some of your thoughts.

I was talking with a coworker who rented there. He really wasn't too keen on Aviara Tramonto, but maybe it was just him. He said that Tramonto had an odd mix of retirees and rental houses I'm not so sure if I would want to buy in neighboorhood with too many rentals. I did a quick search on zillow and looks like a lot of the owners are now underwater, in some cases by up to $200K, based on some recent comps. Looks like some prices are in the low 500Ks. I would be concerned that the combination of large number of rental homes and underwater homeowners going into foreclosure will turn Tramonto into "Trashmonto"

Tramonto are detached condos and the buildings seem to be on top of each other. The HOA looks like it is keeping things neat but the buildings and landscaping looks all the same, pretty SoCal vanilla stuff. I went to an open house, house looked OK and didn't see a soul after driving around neighborhood for a while.

I'm thinking about just waiting until next year and going for a true single family home in Carlsbad. Any thoughts?

Thanks in advance!

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I would stay away from the
Submitted by Bubblesitter on December 14, 2008 - 9:48pm.

I would stay away from the Condo market in general. Condos don't hold their value as well as Single family homes. Aviara Tramonto as zero lot line detached condos may do a bit better than larger multi-unit condo buildings.

Keep your eyes on the % renters in any condo development. The combination of large % of renters and large % of underwater homeowners is a recipe for continued depreciation.

Condos in Tramonto will very likely be selling in the 300Ks by the time all this is over in 2011 timeframe.

60 minutes just had a good summary of just how long this housing downturn will likely last. We have a 2nd wave of Option ARM/ALT A resets starting in 2009, these will continue thru 2011. It is comparable in size/scope of the subprime debacle.

http://piggington.com/60_minutes_2nd_wav...

If I were you, I would wait for a SFH. Carlsbad is one great town.

Bubblesitter

Single family homes can now
Submitted by sdrealtor on December 14, 2008 - 10:47pm.

Single family homes can now be had in the low 500's on nice size lots with Low/No HOA or Mello Roos fees in the Encinitas/San Dieguito school district which are generally regarded higher the C'Bad. Dont know if Tramonto will get down to the 300's (I think not) unless it is really trashed and in a horrible location.

As big as 2nd wave is, the holders of those loans have things most of the sub prime holders did not. Things like assets, savings, jobs, supportive families etc. not that there wont be failures but the rate will be considerably lower than that of sub prime.

Thanks for the comments. I'm
Submitted by NewtoSanDiego on December 15, 2008 - 6:30pm.

Thanks for the comments. I'm gonna skip on the Tramonto condo and target a decent Single Family Home.

300k for Tramanto? wow, I do
Submitted by rpn on December 23, 2008 - 12:58pm.

300k for Tramanto? wow, I do not see that. The better areas if they are condos or not keep there value much better then other areas. A good example are the condos in Bressi Ranch or even Rancho Carillo vs Aviara. Lets face it now and always we will pay a premium for Aviara. Price points are good it seperates people.

Cheers,
RPN