San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

The homes at Avaron are nice. I think the lot sizes range from 13,000 to 34,000 sf, with the average around 20,000 sf in the last phase.

To get the $50K credit, you are suppose to use Standard pacific mortgage for financing. I know that standard pacific is having serious financial problems. Would anyone be worried about using their financing if they go bankrupt? I'm just not sure what happens to the mortgage in that case.

If your lender goes bk, you just mail your check to a new address. If your builder goes bk, well home warranties are not getting fulfilled and you'd better hope your home is finished.

Josh

I have been up there as well. The lots are large as mentioned. I believe that it is a legitimate concern. If Stanpac went broke during the escrow period you would need to figure out how to get your deposit back. However I believe they would go through a reorg in such an event. Not sure how that would affect your escrow. As for the credit back using the preferred lender all of your credits, tax prepayments and such would be paid at COE, up front so to speak. At least that was the understanding I had after talking to one of the sales people about the credit program.

SD Realtor

SD Realtor,
Do you think Avaron is a decent place to invest with the recent price drops? I REALLY liked the houses and the lot sizes. Of course, the Mello-Roos are high but you get sooooo much more than Carmel Valley.

Shouldn't your deposit go into an escrow account so that it doesn't go poof if the sale doesn't close? That way, if the sale doesn't go through, you can get your $$ back from the escrow account.

Even when a deposit is in escrow, in order for the buyer to get it back, the seller does have to give escrow permission to release the deposit. If the selling entity is in bankruptcy for instance and some entity is empowered (such as receivership) then that other entity would be empowered to continue with the escrow or give escrow permission to release the deposit. In most events the receiver would see to it that conversion of assets to cash is best and would most likely proceed with the escrow. (Note that that is a very speculative statement by me)

SD Realtor

Ilovecv it is hard to say... Okay for my personal taste I am one of those die hard never pay MR fees so will not buy in the newer areas. The price drops are nice but it is hard for me to believe that there will not be more depreciation in the long run in the area. So... I "think" that in the future better deals will make themselves available. I agree with your statement about getting more then CV.

So... sorry for the wishy washy answer... as far as investment property not my cup of tea... as far as primary residence with a long term horizon of 10-20 years yeah that fits in better. I did like the lot sizes and homes like you said.

Sorry if the answer is as helpful as a wet noodle.

SD Realtor

How can the price cuts be "extreme"? They've only begun!!

Only a person who owns a house purchase at the top, and seeing equity evaporate, would say such things.

PS: I own but I try to stay unbiased. I don't plan to sell my house, ever.

Irrational Exuberance I say. Some people never learn.
We will be in FUNK economically for at least the next 2 or 3 general elections.
There was this Giant Sucking sound that sucked the middleclass.

I would agree that prices ought to come down, but the avaron homes are selling. I made a lowball offer on an existing home and was outbid. The builder's agent insists that the home is in escrow for substantially more than my offer. We'll see when it closes shortly.

There's still one existing home left that I like. Trying to decide whether to offer a little more. Been to see it about half dozen times and even heard others making an offer.

I've looked at a lot of resales in CV and RB and just can't find something comparable (4500-5000 sf home on 12,000-20,000 sf lot) for $1.1-1.2 million. I'm still waiting for the wave of foreclosures, but it's been a slow trickle.

Homeshopping, builders are still way out in front of resellers on agressively pricing. The "wave" of foreclosures that you are waiting for that will compare to a 4500-5000 sf home on the lot size you want is not what I would call, right around the corner. Will it come? Sometime in the future for those exact homes, in the exact development you want they may but it may be quite awhile. For the foreseeable future you will find better deals with the builders.

SD Realtor

I went out to Avaron again today. It was CRAZY busy. The salespeople were inside their office with clients with the doors shut which tells me they had serious buyers. I drove by some of the other Del Sur models and there were lots of cars in the parking lots. I was surprised. I thought Avaron would be a ghost town.

Well, SOMEBODY has to catch the knives and create those down-leading comps. It just saddens me to see fellow piggs cut their hands.

I am just surprised at how well the Avaron homes are selling. I was watching the last available home from phase 3 and now it has sold. I know the market is going down, so I wanted a good deal if I bought now. I guess there are people willing to pay $1.2 million for these homes. Now we'll see how the last phase sells.

Has anyone been to the Crosby golf club? Avaron says that their homeowners get a Crosby club membership for about $200/month.

I haven't been to the Crosby club but it looks extra nice. The cost is more like $260 per month plus a $2500 sign up fee (if you buy into Avaron and join within 60 days; otherwise it's $25K). One of the big benefits of joining is the access through Cosby Estates over to the Del Dios Highway. You get access to the pool and tennis courts with the right to purchase 8 tee times per year (not sure how much that is).

I think these houses are really well done and the lots are a nice size. It seems like you get a lot more house and better quality house in Avaron for $1.2-$1.3M than you get just a few miles down in the Santaluz area. I'm giving this area some thought since the builder has reduced prices.

I haven't heard how phases 4 and 5 are selling (final phases due to be completed in December). Has anyone been by there lately?

I get so much junkmail from them, I don't know how I possibly got on their mailing list. That and a bunch of gourmet meals on wheels things and tons of magazines about home improvement.

I do notice if I follow the trail of junkmail from them, the price as steadily declined junkmail to junkmail.

selfportrait

----- Sour grapes for everyone!

The sales office says that the builder has already paid the $2500 sign up fee for the Crosby club membership.

I agree that the houses are well done. I like the variety of floorplans - one has a first floor master bedroom and the other two have a second floor master bedroom. The option for the first floor guest suite is really nice too. I just can't get used to the drought resistant landscaping at Santa Luz. I prefer the lush green grass at Avaron.

Now, if only prices would come down another $100K ...

FYI - I was at Avaron in Feb 07 and again in August of 07 and kept the price sheets.

In Feb The plan one was $1.57 to $1.74, the plan two was $1.67 to $1.92 and the plan 3 was $1.64 to $1.76.

In August, the plan ones were $1.40 to $1.47, the plan two was $1.56 to $1.64 and the plan 3 was $1.52 to $1.58

At that time, 15591 Rising River Place South was $1.29, 15566 was $1.349 and 15574 was $1.373.

+N

15607 Jube Wright Court (4500 sf) just closed for $1.140. It looks like your desired price drop has materialized. I saw this one a while back and it was very upgraded. It's also my favorite model of the three. Ready to buy?

I agree that 15607 was highly upgraded. $1.140 was a good price for that home. At $254 per square foot, this new home was significantly less than the median resale asking price in RB at $343 per square foot.

I also like that the Avaron gate is guarded. Of course, anything can still happen. But unguarded gates are almost worthless.

254 ppsf, now we're talkin.

I drove through Avaron for the first time in about 5 months. It looked like 3-4 new construction houses on Hayden Lake have closed recently (in the last week or so). Does anyone know what the closing prices were on these? They were never on the MLS so they didn't appear on the websites I check. The last closing in Avaron was on Jube Wright and I wanted to see if Avaron is stabilizing or still going down.

These prices are depressing. The fact that people are buying at these prices is even more depressing.

It is depressing E.

Closing Address Price
8/7/08 15626 Hayden Lake 1.362M
8/13/08 15618 Hayden Lake 1.3M
7/31/08 15614 Hayden Lake 1.1M

moved into a separate thread

I just got a flyer mailed to me recently. Let me dig it up and post the latest incentives.

Some additional info:

15626 Hayden Lake 1.362M plan 3, 4197 sq ft house on a 25,097 sq ft lot

15618 Hayden Lake 1.3M, plan 3, 4197 sq ft house on a 16,791 sq ft lot

15614 Hayden Lake 1.1M, plan 1, 3951 sq ft house on a 15,129 sq ft lot