San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Bugs, is that all homes including new homes? Jim the Realtor's blog tracks April sales at about 1350. IS his just resale homes?

I'm still amazed that for the biggest purchase 99% of Americans are going to make that everybody gets not only different numbers but wildly different numbers whether sales, NODs, foreclosures, the RE gig up and down the line.

The MLS simply gives data for listings put on the MLS itself. So if there are new homes on the MLS then that particular home that closes on the MLS will count as an MLS sale. However, if there are 20 other homes in the development that sold that month but they were not on the MLS then they will not be counted. As for the differences between the MLS and Jims number it all depends. Also make sure you check to see if the number is a total of ALL TYPES of homes or not, (attached, detached, multifamily) as Jim may parse things out in a more granular manner.

SD Realtor

The number I used was the combination of detached and attached housing, and is strictly limited to what the MLS itself shows. The builders mostly don't use the MLS, so their sales would be in addition to the MLS numbers. Likewise, the FSBO and non-sale transfers don't show up in the MLS either. I think it's fair to say that the MLS is just the MLS, not the complete picture. I still think it's a good indicator of trends, though.

Jim's numbers are detached only. He mentions this in the comment section.

Update:

As of Noon 05/09/2007, the MLS is reporting 2,223 sales for April 2007. This comes in almost exactly at 15% fewer sales than reported in the MLS during the same period of 2006.

For the first 4 months of the year, this region is down by about 15% when compared to 2006. Maybe it's just me, but I'm just not seeing a rally in progress.

Do these sales numbers include this April's 600+ forclosures in the total sales? If so, is not this April's sales figure considerably lower than last year's?

Also, is there any way to determine how forclosure sales at auction back to the lender are affecting median and median price per square foot?

It seems to me that if 600 homes were forclosed upon and went REO at close to the value of the loan, then this would have a considerable impact on maintaining high prices in the market. It would also seem to mask what was really going on with the prices of other homes being sold.

Am I wrong?

sd teacher, are you really a teacher? Do you teach at a public school? What grade and which subject?

I ask because you spell 'foreclosure' incorrectly.

forclosure salz are not in the mls unlest they came back as REO's after goin bak to the lenduh

That's mean you guys.........everyone here misspells a word or two now and again(not to mention typo's).

Anyway, thanks for the update. It makes me feel better cuz' the house I have been lookin' @ buyin'(wanted to lowball @ summer's end) got snatched up.

What? -15% off of the 2006 numbers isn't enough of a drop in volume for you? C'mon. 2007 is shaping up to be the worst year for sales volumes since 1996. The foreclosures will just add to that pressure. If the NOT trends continue the resulting REO resales 6 months from now will already comprise 25% or more of the sales. Think what that will do for pricing.

MLS only shows what the realty agents sell through the MLS. It won't show the transactions that aren't really sales, like interfamily or foreclosure transactions.

We are a society that demands instant gratification. Anything less than a 5% drop per month isn't "instant" enough.

Yes I am really a teacher - Middle school history, and I have been known to spell words wrong when I am typing quickly. Good thing I don't teach spelling.

But, how about my question? Do foreclosures affect median price per square foot?

Mozilla Firefox 5 has spell check. I don't make spelling mistakes anymore. It's the grammar and syntax I worry about.

_A Way with Words_ is a fun show on KPBS radio.

I don't think that foreclosures affect anything until they are sold again.

Very funny, sdr!

little lady, check your spacing, and no apostrophe in 'typos.'

Perry, you have laid down the gauntlet with your 'I don't make spelling mistakes anymore.' I'll be watching!

http://piggington.com/sales_and_must_sel...

updated graphs for foreclosure #'s and % NODs to Trustee's sales are now up.

BMIT

sd teacher the information source that I use to analyze comps and give people sales price recommendations are based on the MLS information. As Bugs said the only sales logged on the MLS are sales where the MLS was used the advertise the property for sale. Let's get things straight, a trustee sale, which is what you are referring to, is when a home is sold at auction. The home becomes an REO if nobody purchases it. Technically this is a sale because title is transferred to the lender. However these "sales" are not part of the MLS "sold" properties. So as a Realtor I do not use them as comps to recommend a price. Now once the properties are owned by the lender, if the lender chooses to hire a realtor or broker and advertise the home on the MLS then when the home is sold the sale will be on the MLS for me to use as a comp.

So the long winded answer to your question about how foreclosures will affect the median price per square foot is that it depends. If the agency collecting the data uses only MLS information, it will be one value. If the agency uses a souce that has ALL the sales including FSBOs, and all other sales that are not recorded on the MLS then the value will be different.

Common sense will dictate that the more trustee sales, the more lender owned properties will hit the MLS. The more lender owned properties there are, the more likely prices will depreciate, (as long as buyers don't pay high prices); hope that all helps.

SD Realtor

what about short sales?

if a homeowner is going into foreclosure and is trying to sell the property via MLS with an agent and has a short sale approved through their lender - that will reflect on MLS??

i've seen several homes advertised that are on th eMLS and they advertise as a "short sale".

were short sales common in the last downturn and were short sales a big part of the price depreciation then? what we're going to see here in so cal are piles of foreclosures.... or at least people who are on the verge of foreclosure and tons of houses for sale as a result.

Bump

As of today, the MLS reports 2,257 sales, which is NOT 15% off the 2006 total of 2,622 for April 2006. It's only 14.15% less. That's still pretty bad.

I don't think this number is going to increase significantly from here.

YTD, we are down about 12% in terms of volume compared to the same first 4 months of 2006. 8,191 for 2007 vs. 9,335 for 2006. If we extrapolate that trend for the remainder of the year we'll end up at about about 25,000 sales through the MLS for the year, which falls between 1997s 27,200 and 1996s 23,500.

The thing to remember is that we've added more than 10% to our regional SFR/condo supply since 1996, so as a percentage of inventory, our current volume of sales represents a smaller percentage of total inventory. I read that to mean that a 25,000 volume in 2007 would be even WORSE than a 23,000 volume in 1996.