April HPI

User Forum Topic
Submitted by esmith on May 2, 2008 - 7:39am

Time for an update

City average: 30.2% off the peak
Top tier: 12.6% off the peak
Middle tier: 31.4% off the peak
Bottom tier: 37.4% off the peak

Carlsbad, Encinitas: 13.9% off
RB, RP: 16.2% off
Eastlake, Otay Ranch: 36.4% off
Logan Heights, Encanto: 42.3% off

As usual, numbers and graphs are at http://sdhpi.blogspot.com

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esmith - Love the charts on
Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on May 2, 2008 - 8:49am.

esmith -
Love the charts on your blog, especially the breakdown of the different areas !

Awesome as usual.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 2, 2008 - 8:54am.

Awesome as usual. Thoughts:

- This seems to be pretty in line with the overall case shiller HPI... I will remind folks that the latest CS data is for Feb, while this is all the way through April... smith's further 6% decline fits in with what we've seen from median pr/sqft.

- Looks like a spring rally in the top tier, because the Feb CS is actually worse than esmith's April value for top tier. (Though the graph only shows rallying in CV, 4$, etc). But no sign of a rally for the lower tiers.

As far as the lower tier has fallen, as of Feb is was still more overpriced (based on historical relationship with incomes) than the upper two tiers, but it went that much more nuts in the boom. At this point it may be getting back to parity, and the mid-tier may actually be below parity with the high tier.

I've always thought there would be a substitution effect bringing down the high tiers, but it doesn't make sense for this to happen until the other tiers are undervalued on a historical basis compared to the high tier. This hasn't happened yet -- or maybe it's just starting to happen now.

Rich

his seems to be pretty in
Submitted by esmith on May 2, 2008 - 11:48pm.

his seems to be pretty in line with the overall case shiller HPI... I will remind folks that the latest CS data is for Feb, while this is all the way through April

To be exact, my numbers are through April, but latest "February" CS data is the average for December thru February, so it really should be called "January". The way I see it, CS is lagging by 3 months.

My HPI vs Case Shiller:

July 2007 9.0% 8.3%
August 2007 10.6% 9.4%
September 2007 11.8% 11.0%
October 2007 13.4% 13.3%
November 2007 16.3% 16.3%
December 2007 19.5% 19.1%
January 2008 21.9% 21.1%
February 2008 24.9% 24.0%
March 2008 27.2% n/a
April 2008 29.0% n/a
May 2008 30.2% n/a

Also keep in mind that my tiers are geographical and C-S tiers are price based. My theory is that an older 3br in Carsbad or RB is likely to follow the top tier even if its price places it in the middle tier. Conversely, a 5br McMansion in Otay Ranch or Oceanside may be priced high enough to get into high tier, but that does not make it immune. That is the reason why I'm seeing relatively less depreciation in the high tier than C-S.