San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

FLU I have heard the same as well. I have not been over there for a few weeks though so my information is second hand and I don't want to spread rumours and dilute the integrity of the internet.

Rumors? Integrity? Internet?

You're kiddin arent you?

Fair enough...I'll wait for some folks to chime in. Bump. If not, I'll check them out myself.

I have been wondering how this area is holding up. Jumbo rates are often 2 percentage points above conforming. How many people can afford to buy at those rates while also being required to document their income. Contrary to populat Realtor belief rich foreigners are not lining up to buy homes in CV like they might in Del Mar and La Jolla.

Any insight would be appreciated.

Speaking of the devil, I just got an email from Pardee on Carriage Run for one of their so-called special deal. They been trying to unload the plan 1 that been sitting for more than 6 months. I personally have not heard anything about Derby or Saratoga.

Here's the body of the email:
"Soak up the Summer Savings
Don't miss this opportunity to buy one of the lowest priced NEW single-family homes in coastal-close Carmel Country Highlands. The sophisticated Plan 1 at Carriage Run is ready for you and your family with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and approximately 1,985 sq. ft.

Join us Saturday, July 12 for
Reduced pricing on select homes
Model tours
Refreshing California Quivers
A chance to win Family Pack Tickets to Sea World!
Meet with a Pardee Home Loans Representative"

CV inventory is hitting 300 these days, and I swear that I can almost feel the tension between the buyers and sellers as they are in a stairing contest. I don't see price reduction very often and the houses are staying on the market for a lot longer than 3 months ago.
However, with jumbo rate at 7-8%, it is hard to imagine that sellers will win the contest.

Is that attached or detached? I know the attached market is trashed and has been trashed for some good time now.BUT, I was more interested in detached. Actually, this was sort of tongue and cheek. Because I think i sort of get a feel for where things stand in CV right now...There were a bunch a Pardee cheerleaders touting how "well" specifically Pardee communities in CV are holding up a few weeks/months ago, and while I did notice a few resales closing, it seems like some of the new inventory isn't moving....I'm sort of curious where they all went and what the current assessment of the market looks like. :)

I do notice that there are more homes priced "better" and those are the ones that move, a few being a couple in my community. But like you said, there does seem to be a staring contest going on.

I am hoping that CV will repeat what MM had last fall/winter.
It may not be as dramatic as MM, but I think 10 - 15% cut is reasonable.

Bridle Ridge is doing very poorly. I don't think they sold any at their last release. As of this week they had 4 out of 5 from that release still available. Of course, they're right under the power lines, but they had huge (for CV) lots with great views. I think they still have a bunch available from their first phase, also.

Something very special to CV:
1) Only Pardee building new homes there and Pardee bought the land in dirty cheap price, so it's very reluctant for Pardee to drop the price unless the floorplan issue (like Carriage Run plan1) or location issue (like Bridle Ridge);
2) The biggest employer in San Diego runs very good in these years, and it recruited thousands of people from outside of San Diego. So the strong demand for close-by and good school district housing exists all over the north county especially CV because it's close to SV;

The people that buy in CV are not the people employed by QC in the last 7 or 8 years.
You need to get into QC before 98 to be able to afford CV, and there are not that many of them that have not owned a house in prime locations (Del Mar, Solana beach, LJ...etc).
Even with 2 low six figure incomes, if you have kids going to schools, 1M+ house in CV is not affordable.

CV also has less pricey homes. The Sausalito resales were moving quickly in the spring. They are free standing condo in 700s.

You can't assume that. If you did a research of new CV communities developped in last 7-8 years, then you'll find a decent percentage of buyers are from QC. Also a lot of people relocated from Bay Area, they just say the CV house is so cheap with such good school.

These people can afford CV, not because of QC salary, but because of previous saving accumulated in their Bay area job or stock options.

All I am saying is that you can not afford CV house merely relying on your QC salary alone, even both husband and wife got low 6-figure in QC.

Your saying is right. But the fact is QC recruited thousands of people outside San Diego in past 10 years. Many of them had accumulated good fortune before came to QC. So it's no surprise to see the CV price is so steady!

bump. anyone anyone anyone? Bueler? Anyone visited Pardee recently?

Except there are only a few areas that I can think of for which acumulated wealth from salary/compensation are high enough with current SD prices.

1) Bay area
2) NYC

I doubt there are many #2 folks. Talk about culture shock. And right now, anyone enginerd that "needs" to relocate from #1 down to SD for job reasons would leave me perplexed because employment up there is considerably better than down here.

One observation, there are definitely a lot of dual income families in CV.

What about the jumbo conforming (whatever those are called)? I'm thinking that might be helping out slightly. don't have any data right now...Don't know. Anyone anyone?

FLU. I have always enjoyed your sarcastic wit.

This babbling about Sorrento Valley employers, well, there simply ain't all that many employers out there, and those that are, well, Qualcomm's stock price has been flat for eight years. Ain't no army of silicon valley millionaires being minted there!

I have an "asian invasion" theory I have floated here a couple of times. Still wondering if that is the dominant aspect. I can tell you I live in Sausalito, and the houses being sold, well, whites moving out and chinese moving in. Honestly, no opinion on whether that is good or bad.

bump again, this thread to the top of the active forum. Come on folks, someone please say you've visited Pardee's sales office recently?

Gosh, you can never find good help when you need it :)
Just kidding.

flu, I go to the Bridle Ridge sales offices occasionally. I rarely see anyone else there besides the sales agents.

I stopped by one of the new developments in Torrey Hills about a month ago (the homes were in the $800K range about 2000sqft). I walked into the sales office, looked at the outrageous prices on the whiteboard and told the salesmen to call me when the prices are $300-400K less in a few years. He said that they have been fortunate they have been able to keep the prices up at peak bubble territory.

cowboy, that new development would be Carriage Run, which technically is in CCH and not Torrey Hills. Your assessment of $500k would be in line with how much I think something in that community that I would like to see be for 1900-2000sqft. Why people spent close to $800k on such a small home imho is overpriced even for CV standards.

zk,

I'm curious. Why do you visit Bridle Ridge community so often? Are you interested in the community? It's an honest question.

The big turnoff for me regardless of price is the proximity to the powerlines, and the otherwise annoying lot location.Doesn't it bother you? I'm curious what your ideal/realistic price point would be for Pardee to move into Bridle Ridge to tolerate some of the pecularities in a a developed...I say realistic, because obviously a price of $1 to $500k probably would allow some people to tolerate the power lines. I'm curious what your realistic magic sweet spot would be to move in.

For me there are certain communities that I would never live in no matter what price. For example SeaRidge in Torrey Hills is one. If someone handed me a deal of a home in that community, I'd turn around a rent it out or sell, but would never owner occupy.

flu,

Yes, I visit because I'm interested in the community. Some of their lots are not that close to the powerlines. I can't say what price I'd be willing to pay just yet. It would be at least a year before I'd buy there, and it will depend on what price range resales are selling for at that time. If I think prices have a long way down to go at that point, I may pass on it altogether.

fat_lazy_union,

Are the Sea Ridge homes in Torrey Hills the homes that have powerlines backing them (like in your back yard); slightly west of the Vons shopping center on Ocean Air? If those are the ones I think your talking about, I agree with you. What do those homes go for these days? $900K to $1M??

Carriage Run is one of the most overpriced new homes around. They were so outrageous I had to give the sales guy a few jabs on how crazy the prices were.

He thought the fact that the prices are holding up so well was a real attraction to the community. He also said $500K for those homes would never be.

Don't forget those houses, at least this one in Sausalito, are right under the flight path for the choppers coming from MCAS. Especially when the marine layer hits, and the choppers fly under it, it's WHUPWHUPWHUPWHUPWHUPWHUPWHUPWHUPWHUP.

Exciting the first couple of times and then downright intolerable. Power lines, choppers, and planes, oh my!

You can argue the whole CV is overpriced. But at the lower end, there seems to have much support. Carriage Run is selling very well except model 1, which has a very undesirable floorplan for the typical buyers, who choose CV for the schools. I don't have much knowledge in 1M+ homes though.