Submitted by Nor-LA-SD-guy on August 26, 2009 - 9:43am.
OK Don't shoot me, but that is something I have been saying for a while,
Basically Home building has been shut down in SoCal for 2-3 years, Now there was a lot of over building between 2001-2006 but the under building far exceeds what was being over built.
IMO I think your going to need that wave of foreclosures everyone talks about just to keep up with demand unless builders start building again.
Submitted by outtamojo on August 26, 2009 - 9:49am.
I'll put the safety back on then : ) Really tho, what I was trying to figure out is if massive building was even possible due to lack of permitted space.
Most SFR built between 2001-2006 are large 2500+ sq-ft. I don't think we have a shortage of those for a long long time. However, I do think we probably will have a shortage of starter homes (1000-1500 sq-ft 3-4 beds, 2 baths, ~5000 sq-ft lot). Options for starter home now is either old SFR or new condo.
Submitted by Nor-LA-SD-guy on August 26, 2009 - 10:45am.
AN wrote:
Most SFR built between 2001-2006 are large 2500+ sq-ft. I don't think we have a shortage of those for a long long time. However, I do think we probably will have a shortage of starter homes (1000-1500 sq-ft 3-4 beds, 2 baths, ~5000 sq-ft lot). Options for starter home now is either old SFR or new condo.
I think that is part of the issue.
It is just more cost effective to build 3000 sqf homes or condo’s , it’s just not cost effective to build 1000 – 1500 sqf homes in areas where land/permits etc… are expensive.
Not sure where the water's going to come from. You know, for the step-in whirlpool tubs that all the wealthy out-of-state retirees will be buying.
There's that big giant ocean to the west of us. We can use some of that. At a certain point, wouldn't desalination system be cost competitive?
The pesky little issue of attorney fees collected while fighting the good fight of protecting the marine life will prevent that.
Just look at the fees collected while fighting to remove seals.
I agree with AN - there will be a surplus of the 2500sf+ houses for a while. There is already a demand for the smaller, more affordable housing. Which is why anything under $300k gets snatched up.
I can see a developer doing a dense build of smaller houses on smaller lots - 1500 sf house on 3500 sf lot. Yes, the ppsf would be higher than the 4500 sf McMansion, but it would still price out at a spot where more middle class people could afford it... without the creative financing.
But - it would require people getting over their sense of entitlement that they deserve a starter home in a new development that is 2500sf and bigger. This recession and the collapse of the bubble might be doing it's part to adjust that feeling of entitlement.
First link is 2000-2008 estimate. Second link is 2030 forecast. You can see that they're forecasting that by 2030, total population would increase by 32% (~970k people). While total housing unite will only increase by 26% (~300k units). They're also have some very interesting forecast on household income between 2004 and 2030 as well. They're expecting median household income to increase by 20% between 2004-2030, adjusted for inflation.
OK Don't shoot me, but that is something I have been saying for a while,
Basically Home building has been shut down in SoCal for 2-3 years, Now there was a lot of over building between 2001-2006 but the under building far exceeds what was being over built.
IMO I think your going to need that wave of foreclosures everyone talks about just to keep up with demand unless builders start building again.
I'll put the safety back on then : ) Really tho, what I was trying to figure out is if massive building was even possible due to lack of permitted space.
Most SFR built between 2001-2006 are large 2500+ sq-ft. I don't think we have a shortage of those for a long long time. However, I do think we probably will have a shortage of starter homes (1000-1500 sq-ft 3-4 beds, 2 baths, ~5000 sq-ft lot). Options for starter home now is either old SFR or new condo.
I think that is part of the issue.
It is just more cost effective to build 3000 sqf homes or condo’s , it’s just not cost effective to build 1000 – 1500 sqf homes in areas where land/permits etc… are expensive.
Maybe very small lots ??
Not sure where the water's going to come from. You know, for the step-in whirlpool tubs that all the wealthy out-of-state retirees will be buying.
There's that big giant ocean to the west of us. We can use some of that. At a certain point, wouldn't desalination system be cost competitive?
There's that big giant ocean to the west of us. We can use some of that. At a certain point, wouldn't desalination system be cost competitive?
The pesky little issue of attorney fees collected while fighting the good fight of protecting the marine life will prevent that.
Just look at the fees collected while fighting to remove seals.
I agree with AN - there will be a surplus of the 2500sf+ houses for a while. There is already a demand for the smaller, more affordable housing. Which is why anything under $300k gets snatched up.
I can see a developer doing a dense build of smaller houses on smaller lots - 1500 sf house on 3500 sf lot. Yes, the ppsf would be higher than the 4500 sf McMansion, but it would still price out at a spot where more middle class people could afford it... without the creative financing.
But - it would require people getting over their sense of entitlement that they deserve a starter home in a new development that is 2500sf and bigger. This recession and the collapse of the bubble might be doing it's part to adjust that feeling of entitlement.
Some more data from Sandag regarding this same topic:
http://profilewarehouse.sandag.org/profi...
http://profilewarehouse.sandag.org/profi...
First link is 2000-2008 estimate. Second link is 2030 forecast. You can see that they're forecasting that by 2030, total population would increase by 32% (~970k people). While total housing unite will only increase by 26% (~300k units). They're also have some very interesting forecast on household income between 2004 and 2030 as well. They're expecting median household income to increase by 20% between 2004-2030, adjusted for inflation.