Another Temecula Builder folds it's tent-Morgan hill

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Submitted by temeculaguy on October 3, 2008 - 8:33pm

Just got an e-mail, this weekend you can buy any of the models for both Montevina or Ruffino. Neither tract was done, not exactly sure but each look about half done. Their plans to open their other tracts on the graded lots were delayed, looks like that will not happen now. Zero building in Morgan now, only one tract left building in Redhawk and six left in Wolf, the deathwatch continues. Morgan already had the highest hoa in S.Temecula at $150 a month, I wonder that will increase now that there will be fewer people contributing and likely McMillan won't put any money in since it looks like they are skipping town.

Submitted by bearvine on October 3, 2008 - 8:48pm.

TG you beat me to it...

I was posting a response to an old thread of yours after getting the same email.

Temecula Dreaming!

http://mailers.mcmillin.com/morganhill/m...

Whomever bids, and buys these is an absolute IDIOT.

Sure beautifully done, especially the Ruffino models, but talk about smoking the funny stuff...

McMillin has no idea and no plan for what they want to do with the hundreds of graded, zoned, empty lots that they have in Ruffino, Montevina, and the Phase 3 section of Morgan Hill. The sons BLEW it.

Also remember, one of the greatest homes ever in Morgan, the K Hov plan 4, which sold for 899, recently sold for 450 or so, at 4200 sq ft.

If any of you Temecula based Piggington's have free time on the weekend, please check out the INCREDIBLE OPPORTUNITY this weekend and report back to us on this thread. And while you are there, submit an offers in the $300 range for fun.

Don't forget my $75 sq ft Morgan Hill projection from a while ago...

Submitted by bearvine on October 3, 2008 - 9:02pm.

Temecula golf tangent-

Last time I was out there and busting McMillin's chops (they admitted there was no plan and they had no idea what was going to happen, besides being halted), checking out the Centex ghostland, took the time to hit the tables and play Pechanga's new course.

What a great job they did on that course. Highly recommend to any golfers out there. Expensive, so if you are a gambler, harass a casino host to get comped/discount. We paid $0 for our foursome. They are closed now, but as the area is hurting there aren't too many people able or willing to pay $150 green fees.

I believe it's the 5th hole, it's on the side of the mountain with a spectacular view. Drive for show, and it is majestic. One of my top 5 golf shots of all time, watched the drive sail into the clouds with all the homes in foreclosure in the backdrop, and heard the ball hit the fairway with a thud. My normal drives are 260-280, GPS tracked it at 350.

As there was no one else out there, we each hit four drives off the box.

They did a great job, and it crushes Cross Creek and Temecula Creek. Pushes Redhawk into a distant 4th IMO.

Give Temecula 10-15 years, it will be a MUCH nicer area, and it WILL be a tourist destination. The homes the wise buy in at $50-75 sq ft range and rent out until the area is ready, will do well.

Submitted by temeculaguy on October 3, 2008 - 11:17pm.

Bear, I thought I'd bring you out of hibernation with this thread. I was kinda bummed after two cosecutive deals fell through in the last two weeks. I am dreading the interest rate hike and possible r/e bounce or lack of foreclosures from the bailout but now that it has happened, the stock market tanked and wall street has switched from "please save us" to "that is a nice start, give us more." I am sure the market can't be saved. You know as well as anyone that I don't need to be talked into the long term benefits of the area, just thought I'd cash out since I met my goals, but I've reset my goals once again.

BTW, the KHOV morgan tract is going well below 450k. This one just listed for 319K, down from 810k and now $86 a square http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33965-...

One of the nicest old school redhawk tracts, the jm peters rancho serrano, walking distance to the bar at redhawk, is reguarlary at 300k and just under $100 a square. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45344-...

also happens to be one of two that got away from this week.

I don't like vintage hills all that much but it is nice, this one popped up at $78 a square with a 4 car garage. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/41799-...

your predictions are not that far off, but my e-mail of new listing from redfin today was almost exclusively in the 200's.

While I didn't get to play Pechanga's course, my buddies went a few weeks back and loved it as well.

I haven't formed an opinion just yet what the tent folding will do to the prices, less inventory is not always good. I'm convinced that I really need S.D. to begin it's collapse to keep people from migrating since the gap has been widening, there are still 8-10 buyers on the day a place is listed when it is a premium place and priced right. In both the deals I lost (actually bowed out at certain points in the bidding war), my competition was not people facing foreclosure looking to downsize and let their previous place go, no were they zero down or investors. They were all over 20% down fence sitters from out of town, with income and solid credit, so there was no chance of them not qualifying. I theorized that there can't be that many of them but other areas are not falling at the same pace so they keep showing up an peeing on my parade. I hope you are right about the $50 to $75 a square but I'm cool with $75-$90, the builders can't build at those prices so we may see a contraction in inventory, which has not increased much in the last 12 months.

While I'm writing a novel, did you see "generation Kill" on HBO? It was made by the same crew that made "The Wire" and while I'm only on the third episode, it's good stuff and fills the void the wire left in my life.

Submitted by bearvine on October 4, 2008 - 7:59am.

TG- Sons of Anarchy on FX has replaced the Wire on my side. Also getting into True Blood. Generation Kill is very good, but not getting into it.

The K Hov Model at 435 I was referring to was the MODEL, highly upgraded and builder sold for $899.

The K Hov listing you posted is a WOW price, considering I paid $450 for that same model in an early phase, I believe it was 03. Got out at $565, and they sold for over 700 at some point. That buyer still lives in the home.

I can see why you wanted the Rancho Serrano home, that is a nice tract, and will stay nice IMO. Home looks well upgraded and kept.

There are/will be more homes in areas like the Vintage Hills one under $65 sq, but will need major renovation. Many homes are being stripped of EVERYTHING. I saw a UHaul in a once decent tract where they were loading the kitchen cabinets and the kitchen sink was in the driveway.

Journey at Pechanga reopens in a few weeks I think.

Getting the right house you want at 75-90 is safe. You have the taste and knowledge to not get burned.

I wouldn't worry about a big influx of people to Temecula propping up prices. Inventory is coming, and prices are dropping in OC and SD. The areas of OC and SD staying strong are wealthy areas where the residents would not want to relocate in Temecula. Even then those areas have declined 20%.

I don't completely agree with the theory that builders can't build at certain prices. McMillin claims the homes they have left in the Morgan tracts are below their cost, and we often hear that you can't build a home for less than %75, 80, 90 sq etc. BS.

How are homes being built and sold for $100k in other parts of the country?

Land prices will go down, materials will come down, and with all the out of work contractors, labor will come down. They are down.

Someone will buy lots at firesale prices from the builders out there at some point, and will build a lower cost home, offer financing, and we'll see signs again for new homes in the $190's and less in the Temecula/Murrieta valley.

Submitted by carlsbadworker on October 4, 2008 - 9:47am.

I was just about to schedule an appointment with my agent to see the Vintage Village house. It turns out the listing agent just raised the price by $100K! Ouch. I really like it at $250K. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/41799-...

Submitted by Nor-LA-SD-guy on October 4, 2008 - 10:22am.

"Give Temecula 10-15 years, it will be a MUCH nicer area, and it WILL be a tourist destination. The homes the wise buy in at $50-75 sq ft range and rent out until the area is ready, will do well."

Anyway, I have two buddies from the North L.A area, one mid fifties, the other about 60 years old, both recently bought foreclosed homes in Temecula one 330K the other a little over 300K. Both paid cash, were they fools ?? maybe -- are they worried ?? not much .

Both do not plan on moving into the area in 5 or so years after they retire, keep as weekend second homes until then.

I have a third buddy now considering doing the same.

I think the nicer homes/areas in T.V. will still find buyers around this level.

Just my Opinion..

Submitted by PatentGuy on October 4, 2008 - 11:38am.

"Many homes are being stripped of EVERYTHING. I saw a UHaul in a once decent tract where they were loading the kitchen cabinets and the kitchen sink was in the driveway."

Does anyone know where all of the plundered cabinets, sinks and appliances from these foreclosures end up?

Craig's List?

Submitted by bearvine on October 5, 2008 - 10:22am.

Craigslist without a doubt is a great place to go for all the plundered house items from the foreclosures.

I don't want to post someone's personal listing, just go search "kitchen cabinets" in furniture by owner, and you will find entire kitchens. Try OC, SD, IE Craigslist sites.

Not that they would have it, but ask if there are receipts just to make sure you are not buying stolen goods.

A couple years back there was a crew in the LE/Mur/Tem area that had a delivery truck, delivery uniforms, and in broad daylight were stealing the kitchens from new, ready to close, and just closed but not moved into homes in the area, and then selling on Craigslist.

I saw their handy work firsthand at a Pulte development. A sign of things to come I suppose...

Submitted by bearvine on October 5, 2008 - 10:34am.

An old school realtor who understands the need to nurture a client base, would be marketing to people like your buds, NorLASD guy. Is the Nor for NoCal?

In the long run, even if it dips they won't get hurt.

Personally, I think the best strategy for an investor is to let it hit bottom, and buy on the way back up within the first 10% increase.

Sometimes the crazy deals materialize, and that's when you make the exception.

For example, if a steal in one of the gated Redhawk tracts came up, beat up or nice condition, with course view, 3 car garage, less than $70 sq ft, I would be inclined to pick it up and use it as a replacement for the multiple storage units that I have. End up with an asset stagnant for a few years, eventually considerable appreciation (2x-4x return) in 7-10 years, and becomes free storage space over the time span.

Submitted by PatentGuy on October 6, 2008 - 6:38pm.

Bearvine, TG and any other Temecula experts:

If you had $400 cash to plunk down for a home in Temecula - where would you buy? Which development, which model?

We may look there with an eye for a part-time home (3-6 months a year). Our kids are grown, but would be occasional visitors, so at least 2, preferably 3 bedrooms, but we do not need/want a mcmansion. Ideally, 2000-2500 sq ft is about right. Quality construction matters more than an extra 500-100 sq ft, as does location, lot size, privacy, security (we would be away from the home for extended periods of time).

We like a true "Spanish" design - but not essential. Don't care about schools.

I look forward to your input - thanks!

Submitted by bearvine on October 6, 2008 - 10:05pm.

PatentGuy be patient...

I will stay on the record to remain patient...BUT, if you HAD to buy, and with your parameters in mind, I would definitely go gated. Most of the time gated areas are a BS facade to make people feel special, but with the transient nature of neighbors in the area (thus can't rely on them keeping track of your pad) I would go gated for piece of mind. Which limits your options. Center on Bear Creek in Murrieta, and Redhawk in Temecula.

I would spend as little as possible, this is hard to get hurt:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Murrieta/38584-...

If you have to spend $400k for 1031 reasons, look at something like this:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33349-...

The gated neighborhood in Redhawk TG was looking at is nice.

If you are ok without the gates, I am still a big Morgan Hill fan at the right price:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33965-...
Might be a bit big for you, but we had one of these floorplans, and thought it was nice.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44751-...
Had this floorplan as well, was ok, but you have a "view" here.

Stay away from Wolf Creek, as the economy gets worse, and you are away from your home, for months at time, go up for the weekend and find...a desperate, homeless, gambler who lost everything squatting in your home. That will be a news story at some point.

Are you a patent attorney?

Submitted by TemekuT on October 7, 2008 - 8:49am.

Careful, these are not prime locations.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33965-... it has no neighbors across, behind, or to one side, but it's next to Tony Tobin elementary school. Be prepared for the daily line-up of SUV's dropping off and picking kids up constantly, as they congregate in front of this house and all over this street. Plus, you get the experience of noise, lots of it, all day and even in the evening.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44751-... forego the view here, as this is the most common entry point into Artessa and Cristal and this house is the 3rd from the corner. You get to experience the SUV raceway effect, plus, most occupants here don't park in the garages and have several cars, so the street is cluttered and kids tend to shoot out from behind the cars.

If you want a view, wait for something on Mumm Street, or go up on the cul-de-sac Pegase. You can also get a view on Star Hill and parts of Silver Rose.

Or, pay $100K more and pick up a FC at Blackstone on the other side of Morgan Hill. There are some great bargains there and more coming up in the low 400's, plus the lots are larger and more separated.

Submitted by tlefort on October 7, 2008 - 12:55pm.

Temeculaguy and assorted Temecula experts,

I am looking at a property just outside the Temecula area. Off of east Benton near sage. I know this is far from the hub of Temecula (10 miles east) but we need land to run my wife's horseback trail riding business through the wineries. We have 18 horses that need the room.

My question is what do you think these more remote places will do in the near future? This place is on 10 flat acres, good well water and a simple 2200 sf home for the high 200s. Not a lot of comps to do a proper comparison but I know there are a lot of dreamers out this way trying to get a million$ for properties on 5 acres or less. If anyone knows the area south of Lake Skinner and east of Glen oaks out east benton all the way to Sage road I would appreciate your input.

I would be a long term owner and plan on staying at least 10 years or for ever even...

Thanks for your input.

Submitted by PatentGuy on October 7, 2008 - 2:02pm.

Thanks bervine and TemekuT.

We are in our mid-late 40s, and want to have a "part-time" place somewhere in SD area. I realize Temecula is Riverside Co. and sort of the middle of nowhere, but I’ve been through there many times through the years (it has really grown), and much of the year it is a very pleasant place to be. I golf (poorly) maybe 6 times a year. One of my concerns is that new, high quality construction in the best locations are all McMansions. Not everyone needs 3500+ square feet house. We would prefer the extra $ go to quality, location and privacy, instead of extra feet. Seriously, 1220-1500 quality "bones" and location is much better than McMansion and/or "good" schools we aren't using.

We are paying cash. I don’t mind a “fixer”, so long as the price reflects the cash needed to “fix” (plus a premium for the effort). Short sale or foreclosure is OK – we are in no hurry. I also have been watching the discussions on this board regarding whether the RE crash will convert nice neighborhoods into not so nice ones.

I will be down there late next week (at conference at Rancho Bernardo), and plan to take a few hours to drive around. Red Hawk is on the agenda (can I get in without a "host"). We prefer quiet. Not close to any schools. I want to hear birds or the occasional golfer cursing; not traffic. Too much land means too much upkeep. The gated versus non-gated is only an issue because we may not be in town for months at a time.

I hate to say this, but I probably should work with a realtor (I hated saying that), since we are out of the area. Any recommendations? (I already regret saying that, too). I like some of the realtors that post on this site, especially SD REALTOR (Adam), but I don’t think he works up in Temecula. I like Jim the Realtor, too, but again he does not work this turf. Someone of that temperment.

(Yes, I am a patent attorney. Yes, not a very clever moniker).

Submitted by temeculaguy on October 7, 2008 - 2:44pm.

tle, if you can get in the 2's or even low 3's out there, just do it, the million plus stuff has been taking a beating but horse property is very unique, I have so little experience I can barely give advice other than getting land for tract prices, that is a go in my book.

Patent-Redhawk in general is open to the public as is the golf course, there are a few gated tracts within redhawk but most is open. I have to say, with what you are looking for, bear creek might be a beeter choice, or even canyon lake. Maybe just go to San Diego itself, say carlsbad or something. 400k for 1200-1500 sq ft. is not why you come to temecula, I honestly cant think of anything that fits that bill. Smaller places are often not as nice and old bones usually means large lot out here. This is my favorite weekender house in redhawk http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45443-... and you can walk to the bar.

For a low maintenance, smaller, weekend place, I reccomend this tract of triplexes.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33599-...

but not that unit, get one that overlooks the creek, all you can hear is frogs, and get one with a driveway, most have a two car driveway and a 2 car garage, the one I linked doesn't have a driveway. They have a high hoa but a low tax rate so it balances out, they take care of the yardwork and it is within redhawk, will only set you back 200k and will rent easily for 1500 if you go that route ever. Most occupants are 40-60 but there are no rules about age, it just doesn't appeal to the monster truck crowd. It is also gated.

This one went pending for 177k, but not the best location within the complex.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/41260-...

If you really want to spend 400k cash, buy 2 and rent one out.

Submitted by TemekuT on October 7, 2008 - 3:38pm.

The KHOV house @$319,000 has gone pending. The MLS indicated it would be a multiple offer, highest & best situation with offers to be reviewed yesterday, so I would guess there were actually multiple offers and a bid-up. I will try to remember to update and post my Morgan Hill spreadsheet.

PatentGuy - I am happy with Morgan Hill. I live there in a single level house and each McMillan tract has a single level plan: (sq. ft. approximate)

Artessa - 2050 sq. ft.

Cristal - either 2050 or 2450, depending on option to convert 3rd car tandem to bed/bath

Montevina - 2450 or 2650, depending on option to convert 3rd car tandem to bed/bath

Ruffino - 2750?

Blackstone - 3100?

You can still look at the floor plans for Montevina and Ruffino at www.mcmillin.com

Additionally, KHOV had a nice 3100 sq. ft. single level plan.

Shea Homes only had large 2 story plans on compact lots.

Ventana has only very large single-level homes of 4500 to 5500 sq. ft. on lots of at least 1/2 acre.

The homes in Morgan Valley are not part of Morgan Hill and do not have access to the common area facilities.

Regarding the gates, I can only say that the best defense is to get to know your neighbors and to get an alarm system. I have relatives in a gated community in Tustin Ranch and I never have to be buzzed in, I just tailgate in after someone. Residents are always going in and out and it's easy to follow through before the gates close. I believe the only way a gate works as it is intended is if there is a guard, not just a gate.

I perhaps could help you with the realtor recommendation. I'm a broker but I don't work in the field, I just got the license as an enhancement to the other professional certification I hold and I always represent myself on transactions. I have relatives here that have been in business for 20+ years and really know the area. I sure wouldn't take it personally if you spoke with them and decided not to work with them, but who knows, perhaps it would be a good fit. If you'd like their name, email me at RinaMaxtor [at] yahoo [dot] com. (fake name everyone)

Submitted by PatentGuy on October 7, 2008 - 4:10pm.

This is excellent info - much appreciated.

One of the links was to a "bungalow" that just sold in Aug for $150K (did I read that right?) Maybe be a flip of a trustee sale purchase? The 2002 price was $200K - Temecula has been hit hard by the bubble pop.

The asking price for the triplex started out at $220K, was dropped down to $190K, then raised back up to $220K. I don't get the strategy, but they should not be surprised to see an offer for $170K.

"Rina", I will email you when I get a chance.

Submitted by PatentGuy on October 7, 2008 - 4:10pm.

This is excellent info - much appreciated.

One of the links was to a "bungalow" that just sold in Aug for $150K (did I read that right?) Maybe be a flip of a trustee sale purchase? The 2002 price was $200K - Temecula has been hit hard by the bubble pop.

The asking price for the triplex started out at $220K, was dropped down to $190K, then raised back up to $220K. I don't get the strategy, but they should not be surprised to see an offer for $170K.

"Rina", I will email you when I get a chance.

Submitted by TemekuT on October 7, 2008 - 4:37pm.

Oops, for the Cristal single level, make that 2250 or 2450 sq. ft.

Submitted by cashflow on October 7, 2008 - 4:56pm.

Patent
In the past I used a realtor up there we really liked.

Her name is Karen with Coldwell email me if you'd like her info; myaquabag [at] gmail [dot] com

Submitted by paramount on October 9, 2008 - 8:41pm.

Another Possible Closure? Summerhouse near Temecula Parkway and Margarita looks shutdown. Most of the landscaping has died, I have not noticed any construction going on.

Another one bites the bust...?

Submitted by temeculaguy on October 9, 2008 - 11:28pm.

I figured that one would fail even before prices declined. Those were condos for 55+ asking sfr prices because it was walking distance to the future hospital, grocery and drug store. It was bad marketing but would work well as rentals. The demographic that wants to be within walking distance to a hospital, food and prescriptions and is over 55 is, unfortunately, is someone with a serious medical condition or one foot in the grave. The age restrictions prohibits many of the employees at a 24 hr trauma center that might like the convenience of walking to work and the amount of time that someone is able to walk and doesn't need a skilled nursing facility but needs to be close to those things is not long enough to warrant buying. That place would have been better off as rentals, my guess is that an investor will buy it and make it rentals since it's target demographic is transitionary.

With the NIMBY's and the unions holding up groundbreaking of the hospital, the appeal of the adjacent housing just isn't there yet.

Submitted by paramount on October 10, 2008 - 10:30am.

TG: I agree they will become rentals, the units appear to be pretty nice. They probably have to get the proprty rezoned as rentals.

I talked to the Temecula Mayor about a month ago regarding the hospital and he stated they were just waiting for state permits. At the same time, he did say they have been hand holding Southwest to get this project in gear.

Although, with the state of the economy, I wonder if it will ever happen.

I also told the mayor I thought the plans were to grand, and that if we can't get this hospital done at least put in a hospital like they have in Big Bear. A small hospital that can handle urgent cases.

Even that would be greatly helpful at this point.

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