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And we are below 12000 yet again...User Forum Topic
Submitted by HiggyBaby on June 20, 2008 - 10:30pm
DOW goes below 12000 again. Please, no comments about how much you've made or lost in the market on this thread... Higgybaby ____________________________ MARKET SNAPSHOT: Stocks Slide In Dow's First Close Below 12,000 Since March June 20, 2008: 06:18 PM EST U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending below 12,000 for the first time in three months, as escalating oil prices and more trouble in the financial sector compounded market anxiety. "Investors have been unwilling to step up and buy stocks because the markets continue to get pressured by the same old story," including worries about higher energy costs, and losses linked to financials, said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer at Oaktree Asset Management. The Dow (DJI) ended at 11,842.69, off 220.4 points, or 1.8%, for the session. It lost about 465, or 3.8%, on the week. The blue-chip index had not closed below 12,000 since March 17, when it ended at 11,972.25. Friday's finish marked its lowest close since March 10, when it settled at 11,740.15. The day began with equities on the defensive, as crude-oil futures reversed course on the prior's days decline, fueling worries about inflation and the negative impact of rising fuel costs on consumers and the already fragile economy. Adding heavily to the negative tone was Merrill Lynch, which warned of investor capitulation on the regional banking sector, with analysts envisioning further dividend cuts as likely to be on the horizon. Merrill cut its median earnings estimate for regional banks for the year by 15%, with J.P. Morgan analysts joining the chorus with a report predicting further efforts to replenish reserves in the sector. Friday capped a week of downgrades and other negative developments for banks and other financial institutions, noted Art Hogan, chief market strategist. "We had a plethora of brokers talking about them, from the money centers to the regionals, and none of them were positive," said Hogan.
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Personally, I think we are just trading in a range and we'll continue to do that until we have a clear idea who will win the election and what kind of policies they'll bring. That will make the market rise or fall from the range. If you look back the last 6 months, we bottom out around 11500-12000 2 times. This would be the 3rd. We'll see if this theory hold in a few weeks.
Yes this is the third time in the last few years it's been there, we are a few bad days from a new recent low. The last couple of times there were screams for the fed to act but the fed is out of bullets and may be going the other way as far as rates. The warnings of bailing out wallstreet on the backs of consumers and inflation are now a reality, felt at the pumps and the grocery store. I think things will head lower because there is nobody to save it, we will just have to wait and see. I can't brag about how much I've lost or made, I shred my statements before opening them these days, I'd prefer not to know right now but even I can tell the index funds aren't doing well. Thank god for dollar cost averaging.
If you follow the technical indicators, now is a very dangerous time for the market. The Dow broke its intermediate trendline on Friday and should now retest the lows made in March. It's only about 100 points from there. If it breaks that, all hell will break loose. Of course we may get a little bounce here or there, but nothing meaningful. Seems like there's been a huge change in sentiment in just the last 30 days, with professionals beginning to come to terms on the reality of our true financial condition, and jo6pac finally realizing that he's been lied to from the government about inflation, housing, and the undeniable pain of $4 gas, soon to be $5. It would be nice if we could just take the rest of this year and next off and fast forward to 2010. It might be better then.
The first rule of investing, "buy when everyone else is selling, sell when everyone else is buying".
I see this as a buying opportunity.
It's interesting, oil has much, much greater impact on the market than housing at this time.
It looks to me we are coming off a classic bear market rally......suckers rally whatever you want to call it. The bulls were all clamoring that the credit crisis was in the 9th inning and the S&P was projecting a 20+% increase in earnings during the second half of this year. Well we are going into the second half of the year and it appears we are only now entering the recession. John Mauldin had a good piece this week about The Road To Revulsion
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/jo...
""We have seen the heads of virtually all financial institutions stand up over the last few months and claim the worst is behind us. Why would anyone listen to these people? They didn't see the disaster coming, and yet somehow they are qualified to tell us it is all alright! Perhaps I am just unduly sceptical, but this reeks of a conspiracy of optimism. The recession has barely started, let alone reached its nadir. The market moves of late have all the hallmarks of a classic sucker's rally. This isn't discounting the recovery, this is denial! Far from being behind us, the worst may well still be ahead!""
We have a long way to go.
""We have seen the heads of virtually all financial institutions stand up over the last few months and claim the worst is behind us.
Its called a kitchen sink quarter. Funny how every quarter for the last 3 has been one. No big banks have been put in receivership, nobody has forced the fraud out into the open and the worst of the credit crunch hasn't even hit yet. There is not a snowballs chance in hell we are done with this, Citibank is still in business.
Can someone explain to me how we dip below 11,000 and then for no reason at all, except a 5% drop in oil and JPM losses only at $1.1 Billion the market rallies?
dip below 11,000 ... the market rallies?
That might the cause. Programmed buying probably kicked in sensing bottom at 11K point. I am sure many more programs will kick in at 10K point.
short selling rules changed, and people need to cover themselves or change their trading strategy.