San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis

I told my sister and her husband that buying a canyon view small home in Clairemont with some character would be better than buying a faceless home in 4S Ranch. A bigger lot would allow some quality outdoor time (especially with the gorgeous weather that San Diego has). And you could do a remodel with some of your own architectural ideas.

Unfortunately, (in a typical Asian fashion), my brother in law wanted to buy a "new house" to impress his side of the family.

To each his own.

But I think my analysis would parallel yours quite a bit.

I used to live in Carmel Valley. That was before the 56 was built and the 5 commute wasn't as nightmarish. Once the 56 came in, I was out of there. Though now that they've expanded the 5/805 merge, it flows a little better to CV. But the 56 does back up at rush hour. Clairemont may not be as new and glamorous, but I think you get way more for your money.

You don't have much of a choice in CV. I was in a 2000 sf house on top of my neighbor. Back then I could hear coyotes at night. I really liked it, even though I didn't have much of a yard. It was enough to plant a little garden, but not have to work on it every weekend or have to hire a gardener.

The 2-car garage and room for 2 cars in the driveway was enough for me. But I know the dream for some guys is more like a 1000 sf house w/a 5-car garage. (Though I actually know some guys that live in high-rises downtown w/underground parking and like it. They never get their hands dirty. Each his own)

The newer places in CV or south of 56 in Torrey Hills are bigger and the lots are still small. The large lots are McMansions w/the price tag to go along with it. I just don't get having that big of a house, unless you are sharing it w/another family. Some of the newer communities have HOAs to contend with and I think there may still be Mello Roos there, like 4$, though I'm not sure. There was when I first bought there.

I would have to agree w/Dukehorn. For the money, you would be better off finding a place in Clairemont on a canyon and totally redoing it to make it look like a house in Carmel Valley, send the kids to private school and maybe still have some money left over. But then you would still have to drive through your neighborhood and look at other houses that are not as nice. Will that matter?

Otherwise, you will have to settle for a new place in Carmel Valley on a small lot and make friends with your very nearby neighbor. On the bright side, your neighbors will probably be decent people if they can afford living up there. If they're realtors, though, flipping, they may be financially challenged.

Agree with everything that has been said and even laughed at a few of your thoughts dude. They mirror mine exactly.

Just expanding in Clairemont does sound to be an attractive option if you're ok with the neighborhood (not that you shouldn't be).

The square footage one deems acceptable does change as kids get older - we raised ours in the range your wife prefers but I can tell you there were times we wished we had more space. Then I think back and realize that just two generations ago our relatives raised 4 to 6 kids in 1200 sf. It must have been a zoo.

I guess the biggest thing I have learned over the years is that my taste in homes, home sizes, and neighborhoods have changed and will probably continue to change. There are only so many years into the future you can project with any sort of accuracy regarding your wants/needs.

We live in Del Mar and are also going through a search for something a little bigger with more space for the kids but staying within the Del Mar Union School district for elementary and the San Dieguito school district for middle school and high school (we love both districts and have had outstanding experiences with both).

We don't want a gigantic megahome in Carmel Valley (plus we believe most of those prices will continue to fall). However, I agree, it is always tempting when you wander in to a newly decorated Derby Hill Plan 3, and we start to think, "well, maybe this would be okay if it was on a nice canyon view lot" but, those go for $1.7 or so (without upgrades) for the bigger view lot, which is the only way we could stand to be in that kind of cookie-cutter, wedged-in environment. No way. Even though we could afford it, we won't do it because we just cannot imagine that those will hold their value, not to mention that we find ourselves cringing every time we drive through (which should be a definite gut-check to remind ourselves how we'd feel living there)!

So, our search continues for the perfect 3500ish sf home with good design and quality interior on a nice lot - it is not easy, even in a much higher price range than yours. They are very few and far between. We now find ourselves focusing on looking for fixers on exceptional lots in good locations, but it seems many others are looking for the same thing so we run up against multiple offers. The ones that are available for long are not being sold at fixer prices if you count on approx. $250-300/sf for construction costs, which we feel is realistic (and we've now done the fixer route 3 times over the past 20 yrs). For example, what you saw on Sun Valley Rd is a perfect example - I think I know that property and there's no way you can build there with landscaping and all the other stuff (I think it even needs septic, if I recall correctly) for less than $1.5, unless you're a developer/builder. I don't know about your subdividing idea...Del Mar, Solana Beach and RSF almost never allow it, but it's always worth checking.

Anyway, back to your original question about properties in the area for $800,000 or so - have you checked out Del Mar, just west of the 5 and just south of Del Mar Heights Rd, bordered by Calais Dr on the east and Portofino Dr on the west? There are some nice streets and small cul de sacs in that neighborhood that have older, smaller homes on good sized lots. Our kids go to school with many families from that area and they love it. Many of the homes are dated and need sprucing up (or in some cases, major overhauls), but will go for the $800ish range. There was one that just sold on Calais Dr somewhere in the mid-800's that was definitely liveable as is but also had good future potential. I think it was around 2000 sf or a little more. Another came on the market in the last couple weeks on Barbados Way for $825,000. A friend of mine saw it and said it had good potential...from the listing, it looks like it's a 1527 sf house on a 12,600 sf lot, and I'll be surprised if it lasts for long. I know other families who live on Barbados Way, which is a quiet cul de sac, and they love it.

One major caveat about that area - I am not completely tuned in to the current discussion about the widening of I-5, which if it happens, is definitely going to impact people who live on Portofino, and maybe streets further east. Even now, there is a road noise issue in some parts of that area, but you need to check out each property individually to see what it's like because it varies widely. The house I'm referring to on Barbados Way is on the east side of the street and is probably well-protected from major noise. I know you want a fully done house for the $800,000 price, but if you can put a little money into this one, it may be a good way to get you into the school district.

However, if waiting is an option, why not just hang out and see what happens? In my opinion (as with many on this board), prices will continue to soften and may even eventually go into a freefall, so if you're in a position to wait it out, that's the smartest way to go. None of these properties are going anywhere too fast, although a good fixer does sometimes get multiple offers. Still, there will be another one to come along.

I would also suggest checking out the older neighborhood just north of Del Mar Heights Rd and east of 5, off of High Bluff Rd where you can find some decent prices on older homes with bigger lots, but that area is part of Solana Beach School District. It comes as a surprise to many people that the homes in neighborhoods along DM Heights Rd on the north side are part of Solana Beach School District and not Del Mar Union School District. Solana Beach is a very good district, but if you're looking for Del Mar schools (as in most of Carmel Valley such as Derby Hill and Torrey Hills area), you won't be enrolled in them if you buy east of 1-5 and on the north side of DM Heights Rd. Sunset Pt Way and Evening Sky Court fall into that category.

Sun Valley Road area, which we also love, is very pricey and also, although it's a Del Mar address, you will be in Solana Beach school district for elementary school. Many people love that area because it has a semi-rural feel like RSF and also has some horse properties, yet it's more convenient than RSF, being closer to the 5 and the beach. You probably know this, but once your kids hit middle school, all Solana Beach, Del Mar, RSF kids go to schools in the San Dieguito Union High School district. Until that time, there are separate elementary districts.

Hope this is somewhat helpful. Good luck deciding your options! Sounds like any way you go, you're in a good place.

Wow - thanks for all that info.

We can wait a bit, but are hoping to make the "remodel this home this Summer or not" decision soon. So, we could wait until late next year to actually buyu, but we need some ray of hope before deciding to live in this little house for another 18 months.

We are avid fixer-uppers so really, nothing is too daunting from that perspective. Finish carpentry is a hobby of mine so a cosmetic makeover would be easy. I'll check out the Portofino area. I know right where that is (visited a friend there many years ago). It's worth a look.

As I mentioned, the grade school district is irrelevant to us. The high school district is the important thing, and all these are in San Dieguito.

The real deal-killer may be the increase of our property tax base from $250,000 to $800,000, which is an extra $500/month or so. Why pay that extra tax until we actually need to for the better high schools ?

sdduuuude, Maybe your family is a good candidate for private schools at the high school level. Clairemont is certainly ideally situated for that.

I know of LJ Country Day and Francis Parker. Any others ?

Maybe look at older carmel valley. Here's one: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081016972-12...

Private schools include Parker, LJCD, many of the faith based schools Bishops, Santa Fe Christian, Horizon, Marathantha, Jewish Academy.

Other posters know more about this than I do.I think USD is an option.Not sure. I moved to Jamul so my kids could go to Steele Canyon .I think we will have other options when we reach that time but when we made the decision to leave San Diego that was not apparent. We might like to move back.

sdduuuude - If you are concerned about property tax base, check the Mello Roos in CV. As I said, that area may still have Mello Roos. SDR may know real quick. Old Del Mar west of 5 would not, I don't think. The increase in sales price, property tax and MR may cost more than private school in the long run. That's something you'll have to calculate.

Sduuude, give you a perspective. I paid a premium to be in this CV school district, and now I'm leaning toward not using the public schools.

For K-6, tentatively I'm thinking about a Montessori school, though I might change my mind. I'm looking at how public schools are these days, and I guess I'm not that impressed. Then again, it's not worse off than it was when I went to it , so i don't know.

I considered LJCD, except the issue i have with it is you do have extremely wealthy parents that send their kids there. I have a couple of friends that send their kids there and the consensus is that while it's good, sometimes some of parents that "donate" more to the school their kids get better attention,etc. At $20k+ year for normal tuition, I don't want my kid to get a "lesser" treatment because some CEO donates $200k to the school each year for instance. Plus, I generally like to have my kid grow up not thinking that everyone is a multi-million+ household.

I heard good things about Jewish Academy. Not sure what it would mean for sending my kid there who obviously isn't Jewish, but it's all good imho.

selfportrait

----- Sour grapes for everyone!

FLU - Didn't think about that, the psychology of kids not quite so overly rich going to school w/the super rich getting preferential treatment.

MHO - Younger year schools are WAY more important to needing better education. Formative years are critical.

The place on Sardina Cove is nice w/no MR or HOA, but IMHO, a little high in price. Just a few years ago houses on that street selling for 550-650k. Not unreasonable to think it may fall to that before the real estate market mess is all said and done, no?

FLU - Didn't think about that, the psychology of kids not quite so overly rich going to school w/the super rich getting preferential treatment.

Speaking from experience. Three things can happen.

1)Your kid(s) turns out to a be superstar, because he says all that's around him and strives to attain it.

2)Your kid(s) falls short, and get's kinda bitter over it. Esteem issues, etc.

3)In the extreme, you kid(s) wants it bad and resorts to any way to get it. These are your future white collar criminals.

I did not appreciate growing up in an all affluent community, when my family's background clearly wasn't that way in the beginning. There were enormous social pressures as a kid. I turned out average, some of my friends are business owners,CEO's,VP's,etc that achieved greatness by my age, some of my classmates are in jail for all sorts of white collar crimes, and there are a couple of people I know that have "lost it", and plenty of trust fund babies that won't have to work and will be fine, except the ones that do drugs that will lose whatever their parents made.   Interesting perspective frankly.

That's why I tend not to judge people on how their wealth or lack there of. I only have an issue with people who are lazy or expect handouts.

That's also why I hate going to China. Because in China everyone talks about money. You're judged by money, your social networks are by money, you make friends because of your money.money money money money. You're friends will probably screw you over for money. I hate my nanny, because she's always so damn nosy about trying to find out how much money we have our worse how much my parents have. And sometimes I hate some of my relatives from the other side of the house, because all they do among their generation is talk about how much money their sons/daughters/cousins have or have not. There's never a dinner or lunch with family that the subject of money doesn't come up. It's always about so and so got a good deal on x, this cost Y, this investment Q, real estate G, stock V, derivatives A, venture J...money money money money. Don't know if this is an asian thing or just a chinese thing. That's why I like hanging out with my non-chinese friends a lot. I need a break from this sh!t.

selfportrait

----- Sour grapes for everyone!

80K for 4 years of private high school for 2 kids? (the twins). I guess you mean 80K each - and that would be with a scholarship.

Which private schools are you talking about? My daughters private school is $26,500 / year NOW. I would estimate that it will be about 40K per year when your kids are ready for high school. Thats $320K for 4 years for 2 kids.

I'm guessing that Catholic school is cheaper... I don't really know. Which schools have you researched...?

My daughter isn't happy with her school anyway, as a result of that and my son who would probably go there anyway, we are moving to Wisconsin. Thats right.... Wisconsin.

Public schools which are somewhat the equal of private schools in San Diego. No charge (just taxes). 11 kids per teacher in Wisconsin. 27.5 kids per teacher in La Jolla and Carmel Valley.

sdduuuude - If you are willing to give up the yard space, I say read the "Lowball Offers on the Rise" thread, then check this place, w/no MR/HOA.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081005534-12...

Listed @ 724k, but I'd go for it and just offer a 2002/2003 price, like 500k. What have you got to lose? The worse they can say is no. It does back a somewhat busy street, though.

Or maybe in Palacio Del Mar:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086003893-12...

Thanks all. Your thoughts and comments are forcing me to clarify this situation in my head. What a great sounding board this place is.

I really have two decisions to make - one now and one in 6 years.

The decision now is - should we add on to this house ?

If we do add on to this house, we can stay here until 2014. At that time, we have another decision to make - private school or move.

If we don't add-on to this house, we'll have to move next year because We are too cramped and we will not need private school.

So I think the private/public decision can wait until 2014. The real question is - do I want to / can I afford to move to CV next year.

The speed/severity of the bubble burst in that area is an important factor. I just don't see enough price movement now to lead me to think it will be feasible. But I will now be a more educated and interested watcher of CV prices.

cyphire - you are right, it is $160K for 4 years not $80K. Damn twins. Also - good point on private vs. public in North County. That will weigh heavily on my decision in 2014.

carli - that house on Barbados is very interesting.
beachlover - another interesting option on Sardina.
Both rays of hope.

Rustico - If I understand you correctly - you moved in anticipation of a schooling situation which changed. This is a very compelling reason for me to stay here, then decide later when all the factors, including school and housing prices, are known at the time I have to make the decision.

FLU - interesting perspective and info on private school. However, I don't consider any of that information a deterrent. In fact, I'd see the CEO's 200K as subsidising my kids' education.

jpinpg - Thanks for your response, but what part of "1200 sq ft. house is on a 10,000 sq. ft canyon lot" makes you think I'd want a 4500 sq. ft lot backed up against a busy street ?

I didn't think that was really what you wanted, which is why I prefaced it w/if you were willing to give up the yard space, which clearly you are not. If you are not in a hurry, I would wait. I think in time you have a better chance of finding exactly what you want to suit your desires. I'd keep looking b/c you never know. As I said, if you read the "Lowball" thread, deals can happen.

cyphire, don't know if that comment was directed at me. BUT, if so, I meant $20k+ per kid per year. I noted the +, because I've been hearing anywhere from $20-30k. All this before college.

sduuude.

However, I don't consider any of that information a deterrent. In fact, I'd see the CEO's 200K as subsidising my kids' education.

It depends how teachers view it. If it means teachers are going to spend less time with your kid, than it means it might be an issue.

jpinpg...I would NOT recommend the Palacio community. This is next to a golf course. The HOA is funded, general issues with quality, not to mention lots of speculators there. 

selfportrait

----- Sour grapes for everyone!

"Rustico - If I understand you correctly - you moved in anticipation of a schooling situation which changed. This is a very compelling reason for me to stay here, then decide later when all the factors, including school and housing prices, are known at the time I have to make the decision."

No that wasn't it . I wasn't too clear. I didn't think private schools or a better neighborhood would be an option for us financially. I bought a lot and built in Jamul because that cost me very little and the schools here are much better than other areas I could afford except Poway, which is not really my thing, except maybe around Espola Rd. I think San Carlos/Del Cerro is another possibility. Anyway now it looks like we probably would be able to afford some private high school but we are too far away. I think the schools here in Jamul are good and improving. The high school went charter and gets support from the community. I am Just looking at the other trade offs like amenities and commute and suggesting you do the same since you already seem capable of handling private schools and you mostly like your current situation.We will probably stay here or move a little closer in,but still in Jamul, when the kids get older.Right now they(we) have 20 acres to romp around and can spend enormous ammounts of time together, due to low bills, which is great.
No way I am moving to Wisconsin, although I trust Cyphire's opinions. My sister teaches in Stoughton which is a suburb of Madison. Her Daughter has done very well academically from public schools. Her parents are both very bright and involved so that helps.

FLU - I wasn't aware of the golf course situation. Thanks for pointing that out.

If you like where you are living, why not just stay for now? School is not an issue for several years. Do you really need more space right now? If you explained why, I apologize for missing it, but there's only 4 of you and two are 6 years old, how much space do you really need right now? Not meaning to sound harsh, but if you have that much outdoor space, do you need that much more space for 2 little kids? My home is only slightly larger than yours with a much smaller lot, and we have 3 kids here... it's not ideal, but it works for now. Eventually, we'll want more space too. I guess if everything is working for you now, why do you need to rush to a decision? It's very hard to know what type of high school you will want for your 6 year olds in 8 years. You may not ultimately want them in public school, and then you've spent all the $$ to move and are in private school anyway.

I have to agree that in 8 years many things can change. In a short year, we have seen some changes in the market. Even schools and rankings change. However, I think that still the best public school district is Poway. You haven't mentioned it, I don't think. But if that's not something you would consider, I certainly do not at all blame you for that. As tempting as it is to see the price declines in that area, I am still reluctant to go there.

RE: the question about HOA or MR in Del Mar. No, most houses in Del Mar don't have either HOA or Mello Roos. I personally don't know of any that do, but there may be some with very low fees.

However, if you ever decide to look for real estate around here, it's good to know the difference between the two sections of Del Mar. One is the City of Del Mar, which is governed by its own City Council, has strict design regulations and is not part of the City of San Diego. This area, which is bordered basically by Crest Canyon to the east and the ocean to the west with lots of zigs and zags in between, is also sometimes referred to as "Olde Del Mar".

There is another area, loosely bordered by Crest Canyon on the east and I-5 on the west, which is still technically Del Mar and has the Del Mar zip code, but is instead governed by San Diego. The Barbados Way property mentioned earlier is in this area of Del Mar and would presumably be a much easier fixer than one in the City of Del Mar/Olde Del Mar since it's governed by San Diego building dept rules and regs instead of Del Mar.

Since jpinpb seemed to refer to "Old Del Mar" and "Del Mar west of 5" as being the same area (unless I misunderstood), I thought it might help to point this out since it does affect property values and, also even more importantly (at least if you're considering a fixer), design/construction regulations.

For example, we live in the City of Del Mar/Olde Del Mar, and when we renovated our house, we had to jump through huge hoops with the City of Del Mar Design Review Board, which took many months and added unanticipated costs, such as an entire french drain system (designed by a civil engineer whom we had to hire) surrounding the entire property for runoff...it's good stuff in the long run and of course, important for the environment, but it can put quite a damper on a tight budget.

Also, as with many houses in the City of Del Mar/Olde Del Mar, we can only build on 25% of our lot and cannot go up more than one story. So, even if you have a 10,000 sf lot, you're looking at only a max of a 2500 sf house, 440 sf of which is usually a 2-car garage, so you're left with just over 2000 sf living area.

This is a great size for a 2nd home, empty nesters or even smaller families, but it becomes tougher as our 3 kids grow older and we all feel like we're always in each other's space. Seriously, our kids drool over some of those mega-CV homes with the pool and the gigantic game/movie rooms (while my hubby drools over the 3-4 car garages). Still, we talk to our kids about how we value being near the beach and the benefits of living in a cozy, well-designed home, but sometimes kids just don't understand. Hmmmm...imagine that! Anyway, you may get a bit of the same feedback as your twins grow older, but maybe not.

So...that was long-winded and somewhat off-topic, but I think my original point was to say that houses in both the City of Del Mar/Olde Del Mar or the Del Mar area west of 5 don't normally have HOA or Mello Roos!

By the way, I've found that if you want to get a good birds-eye view of what's available in a certain neighborhood, you can use the Zip Realty website (and probably others, too, but this is just one I've found). Of course, you have to register, but then you can click on "search for homes" and then "interactive map." You can then click and drag the mouse around the map to immediately view a snapshot of properties for sale in your price range in any given area of the map. This is helpful if you don't know street names or just want to check out a neighborhood, or you want to see if there are any houses for sale on a certain canyon. Maybe everyone but me discovered this tool a long time ago, so excuse me if this is old news, but I think it's really helpful!

You can do that with sdlookup. It has a map feature. I think it is very helpful especially when you're not familiar w/street names, but particular areas. Allows you to focus on particular areas. Pretty cool to drag the mouse. Just got to punch in the zip code. Scroll the mouse over the little house and shows a thumbnail of it. Click on it and gives the info page.

"You may not ultimately want them in public school, and then you've spent all the $$ to move and are in private school anyway."

This is probably the most important tidbit that came from this discussin for me - your comment says it in a nutshell and Rustico's experience provides an example.

That and I realize I only need the public school for 6 years - from 2014 through 2020. Why pay the extra tax ($800K - $250K) * 1.25% = 8,125/yr) for the next 6 years, then another 6 years when I don't really need the benefit of the extra tax until 2014. That alone costs as much as a $48K remodel on our current home.

Clairmont is a dump, unless you like living in Vietnam.

Clairmont is a dump, unless you like living in Vietnam.

How I have lived my whole life to this point without the insightful brilliance of Alex_angel is unfathomable.

Hey FLU,

Your comments about the Chinese made me chuckle quite a bit. I think CA is a bit worse than where I grew up (Texas). I went to dinner with my brother in law's folks and my sister (who was out of town) called me to ask that I tell them that I was a lawyer instead of a grad student (I was a non-practicing one who had gone back for a grad degree). I was pretty surprised by the request, but my sister had been criticized by her in-laws for getting a PhD instead of an MD, so she was being really sensitive.

All they could talk about was the fact that I gave up a lawyer's salary to go back to a grad school stipend. Absolutely boggled their mind. Seems like personal happiness is a strange concept. Never mind the fact that I drive a Mazda3 when I could be driving a BMWer instead--that just accentuated my weirdness.

That's why I don't hang out with too many Chinese at all.