San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

This story is a couple of days old, but I don't recall seeing it discussed here and the statistics discussed are pretty amazing in my opinion:

But a large percentage of applications are being turned down. Only about a third of U.S. mortgage debt outstanding is likely to qualify for refinancing, said Doug Duncan, chief economist of Fannie Mae. Nearly 70% of borrowers don't make the cut, he said, most often because their credit isn't good enough or they don't have sufficient home equity. A significant number of homeowners owe more than the current value of their homes, a situation sometimes known as being "under water." Others can't profitably refinance, often because they hold jumbo mortgages, those above the $625,000 limit for loans that can be bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac in the highest-cost areas.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12319845...

That's pretty amazing if only a third of mortgage holders qualify for refinancing. Does that mean we'll see 70% walkaways before all is said and done?

That 70% number seems awfully high though. I wonder if it's really that only 30% of those who are applying for refinancing can qualify? That seems more reasonable than basically saying that 70% of mortgage holders out there couldn't re-qualify to buy their own home (either because of bad credit or no equity).