is literally down the street (5 minutes away), smaller and sold for $585k. Just because it's has 92121 zip code instead. Both goes to the same schools too.
I wouldnt have bought that house cause it backs up to Calle Cristobal. That road is buisy and people are moving fast. I wouldnt want all that noise. Now, the exact other side of the street, with 2 houses blocking out the noise if you were standing in your backyard, that would be a great buy. Not to mention the view and the bigger yards.
Really!!! - but a bad price. If you follow the threads past weeks folks showed they bought 2300SFT homes in 4S ranch with 520 - 530K range and these houses mostly with all upgrades
'Why do you think it's not worth $570k? Is it because it has 92126 zip code?'
Yes and Yes. $320 a square foot for this place in this area, c'mon.
And the person who bought it didn't think so. They rather buy a 4/3 2100 sq-ft house in MM than a 2/2 1200 sq-ft house in CV for the same price. I wouldn't buy it at this price, but all the ones that are sold in this area in 2008 have all been around this price. So, this is not the only one. Just because we don't think it's worth 570k doesn't mean others thinks like we do. That's why we didn't buy it and they did.
Really!!! - but a bad price. If you follow the threads past weeks folks showed they bought 2300SFT homes in 4S ranch with 520 - 530K range and these houses mostly with all upgrades
If you work in Sorrento Valley, how long does it take to get to 7417 Keisha Terrace, and how long does it take to get to 4S Ranch at 5:30 PM?
Submitted by 5yearwaiter on January 15, 2009 - 5:20pm.
esmith wrote:
5yearwaiter wrote:
Really!!! - but a bad price. If you follow the threads past weeks folks showed they bought 2300SFT homes in 4S ranch with 520 - 530K range and these houses mostly with all upgrades
If you work in Sorrento Valley, how long does it take to get to 7417 Keisha Terrace, and how long does it take to get to 4S Ranch at 5:30 PM?
Well you don't pay to the location based on where you work but pay for Location value. I surprise to see that house in Mira Mesa at 570K in 2009 as an offer!!
Well you don't pay to the location based on where you work but pay for Location value. I surprise to see that house in Mira Mesa at 570K in 2009 as an offer!!
Locations near jobs have higher values. That area is expensive, because it is within a 5 minute drive from Sorrento Valley tech jobs, 10 minutes from UTC, 15 minutes from UCSD. 4S Ranch has a better high school, but it's further from everything. I am not surprised to see similar houses in 4S and Sorrento Mesa to command approximately the same price.
Well you don't pay to the location based on where you work but pay for Location value. I surprise to see that house in Mira Mesa at 570K in 2009 as an offer!!
Both of those location are important to one group of people or another. Some people want both and they'll pay for both. Have you ever live w/in 5 minutes from work? The luxury of going home for lunch and not have to check traffic before going home in the evening is amazing. Also, if you have kids that you want to spend the most amount of time with, it is priceless.
I've been talking about the trends working their way in toward the employment center for a long time now. I've also been talking about everything being connected. There's still plenty of time for his house to drop another $150k-$200k.
$150k from $570k is $420k. That's definitely not out of the range of possibility. However, do you think it'll get down to this price and still have today's rate? There's huge difference if rates goes back to 6-7%.
Can you be sure it'll happen in 2 years? What happen if won't get to that price for another 5 years? How much would you be paying in rent vs buying? I'm in the camp of government over stepping and cause major inflation. Also, long term average rates are around 8%. So, it's not out of the range of possibility either. What if it goes to 8+% instead by the time price actually get down to 420k? Right now, you can get down as low as 4.375% w/ some points.
Submitted by 4plexowner on January 16, 2009 - 9:04am.
"government over stepping and cause major inflation"
of course they will
but the chances of this inflation feeding into housing prices is very close to zero
what is likely is that we will have stag-flation or hyper-stag-flation - ie, the prices of the things we actually need will rise dramatically while the price of things that we don't need will drop dramatically
how badly does anyone need a $570K house in Mira Mesa, or CV, or anywhere else?
and you are right about rising interest rates - you are pushing the 'buy now' line with the argument of rates rising a point or two - here's a question for you - what is that $570K house worth at 14% interest rates?
Submitted by ibjames on January 16, 2009 - 10:49am.
Bugs wrote:
I've been talking about the trends working their way in toward the employment center for a long time now. I've also been talking about everything being connected. There's still plenty of time for his house to drop another $150k-$200k.
my wife and I are both in that camp, we never considered MM before but we both work near there, and it looks much more attractive now. I currently live 6 miles from work, and I love it
Submitted by barnaby33 on January 16, 2009 - 11:13am.
I liked the simple rate example above. AN, you recently bought. I perceive a none-too-subtle shift to a more defensive posture in your posting. Most of us however have the same bunker mentality as before.
The odds of rates going up to 14% are about as high as prices staying where they are, nearly zero. Rates will stay low until our creditors say no mas, which appears is several years off. Meanwhile job losses will pick up steam and housing prices will continue to decline as lending standards perform the same task that higher interest rates did in previous cycles. Namely shrink the buyer pool.
I for one would love to see rates shoot up, but The govt is literally pissing into a black hole the money it is printing. This money will exhibit itself as soon as the asset deflation has unwound but I'm not counting on it to get me a home I can live comfortably in at a price I can afford.
In summary 570 seems too high to me for any home in MM. Then again, my stated housing preferences are very different from most here.
Josh
barnaby33, you're not seeing me defending my decision. I really don't need to defend my decision since it's my money I'm spending. All I'm trying to do is present the other point of view. I don't like the idea of saying price will go to $x w/out saying what rates will be at when $x occur. $x and y% in rate will determine affordability. Either one of those 2 variable will make a home unaffordable.
Submitted by sdcellar on January 16, 2009 - 9:36pm.
asianautica wrote:
Can you be sure it'll happen in 2 years? What happen if won't get to that price for another 5 years? How much would you be paying in rent vs buying? I'm in the camp of government over stepping and cause major inflation. Also, long term average rates are around 8%. So, it's not out of the range of possibility either. What if it goes to 8+% instead by the time price actually get down to 420k? Right now, you can get down as low as 4.375% w/ some points.
Hey, I'm just using your numbers. No doubt one can screw with the knobs until they get the answer they want. I was just responding to your suggestion that rates going to 7% would more than negate the savings in home price--clearly not the case.
But heck, I'm not trying to pick on you, I'm really responding to my mother-in-law, who said to me the other day, "sdcellar, I've been meaning to talk to you about this. You know, you were right about house prices, but you've got to buy this year. The interest rates are just too good."
As with all things, one must look at the complete picture (or as best you can with all things in the future).
sdcellar, I'm a saver, so rates going up = the interest I earn on my savings will go up. Also, house will crash some more, which mean when I'm ready to move up, my next house will probably be around the price I paid for my current house. I prefer low principle & high rates than the other way around. I was just tossing out the 6-7% out there, with no bases for those #. Who knows what they'll be in the future, when/if price do drop to the $420k level.
Submitted by sdcellar on January 16, 2009 - 10:14pm.
Good on you (being a saver), but haven't you moved much of your cash into your house? And (if it crashes more as you suggest), won't you be pretty well under water on your current house? How is that good for you?
I assume you mean a low principal balance. Who wouldn't like that? This is not a typical situation, however. At least not for most folks. Regardless, one simply cannot ignore opportunity cost, but I see it again and again.
And you're right, who knows? Have you considered the possibility that interest rates could go down from here? Personally, I'm not a big believer in it, but it could happen. That said, you seem to be a fan of fairly extreme scenarios.
sdcellar, I don't plan to sell this house. So, being under water doesn't concern me. My mortgage is also cheaper than what I'm paying for rent, so when I do move up, I'll just rent this place out. If economy gets really really tough, I can easily rent out 3 bedrooms and live there for free, since that would be enough to cover my mortgage. It's good for me because I get to buy a new place with a lower principal balance. I did move a lot of my cash into my house, but I can easily save that much again in 2-3 years. So it's no big deal.
Yes, I have considered rates going down some more. It's not likely, but if it does, I'll welcome that too. I just don't think we can stay down at this level for too long, considering longer term average mortgage rates are around 8%.
So, being under water doesn't concern me. My mortgage is also cheaper than what I'm paying for rent, so when I do move up, I'll just rent this place out.
You seem to forget one thing: if mortgage rate goes up & home prices go down & you lose equity, the lender will require you to have 30% equity in your current house before lending you money to buy another house. Or, you'll need to have the income to cover the payment on both houses.
You seem to forget one thing: if mortgage rate goes up & home prices go down & you lose equity, the lender will require you to have 30% equity in your current house before lending you money to buy another house. Or, you'll need to have the income to cover the payment on both houses.
I didn't forget it. The house I bought would cash flow positive today, so, I'm not too concern about it not cash flowing positive 10 years from now. 10 years from now, if rates does sky rocket and price in move up areas (the 600-800k range) drastically drop to 300-400k range, I can very well pay cash for it and refi later if need be.
Why do you think it's not worth $570k? Is it because it has 92126 zip code? This one:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080078881-10...
is literally down the street (5 minutes away), smaller and sold for $585k. Just because it's has 92121 zip code instead. Both goes to the same schools too.
I wouldnt have bought that house cause it backs up to Calle Cristobal. That road is buisy and people are moving fast. I wouldnt want all that noise. Now, the exact other side of the street, with 2 houses blocking out the noise if you were standing in your backyard, that would be a great buy. Not to mention the view and the bigger yards.
'Why do you think it's not worth $570k? Is it because it has 92126 zip code?'
Yes and Yes. $320 a square foot for this place in this area, c'mon.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080077467-74...
Really!!! - but a bad price. If you follow the threads past weeks folks showed they bought 2300SFT homes in 4S ranch with 520 - 530K range and these houses mostly with all upgrades
Yes and Yes. $320 a square foot for this place in this area, c'mon.
And the person who bought it didn't think so. They rather buy a 4/3 2100 sq-ft house in MM than a 2/2 1200 sq-ft house in CV for the same price. I wouldn't buy it at this price, but all the ones that are sold in this area in 2008 have all been around this price. So, this is not the only one. Just because we don't think it's worth 570k doesn't mean others thinks like we do. That's why we didn't buy it and they did.
Really!!! - but a bad price. If you follow the threads past weeks folks showed they bought 2300SFT homes in 4S ranch with 520 - 530K range and these houses mostly with all upgrades
If you work in Sorrento Valley, how long does it take to get to 7417 Keisha Terrace, and how long does it take to get to 4S Ranch at 5:30 PM?
I would probably never pay this price in Mira Mesa or Sorrento Valley
Really!!! - but a bad price. If you follow the threads past weeks folks showed they bought 2300SFT homes in 4S ranch with 520 - 530K range and these houses mostly with all upgrades
If you work in Sorrento Valley, how long does it take to get to 7417 Keisha Terrace, and how long does it take to get to 4S Ranch at 5:30 PM?
Well you don't pay to the location based on where you work but pay for Location value. I surprise to see that house in Mira Mesa at 570K in 2009 as an offer!!
Locations near jobs have higher values. That area is expensive, because it is within a 5 minute drive from Sorrento Valley tech jobs, 10 minutes from UTC, 15 minutes from UCSD. 4S Ranch has a better high school, but it's further from everything. I am not surprised to see similar houses in 4S and Sorrento Mesa to command approximately the same price.
Well you don't pay to the location based on where you work but pay for Location value. I surprise to see that house in Mira Mesa at 570K in 2009 as an offer!!
Both of those location are important to one group of people or another. Some people want both and they'll pay for both. Have you ever live w/in 5 minutes from work? The luxury of going home for lunch and not have to check traffic before going home in the evening is amazing. Also, if you have kids that you want to spend the most amount of time with, it is priceless.
I've been talking about the trends working their way in toward the employment center for a long time now. I've also been talking about everything being connected. There's still plenty of time for his house to drop another $150k-$200k.
I agree with you Bugs. Glad to see that you're posting again.
$150k from $570k is $420k. That's definitely not out of the range of possibility. However, do you think it'll get down to this price and still have today's rate? There's huge difference if rates goes back to 6-7%.
$570K - 20% down @ 5% = $2,448/mo
$420K - 20% down @ 7% = $2,235/mo
I'm sorry, why wouldn't I want to wait? (oh, *and* I get to keep an additional $30K (plus interest) in my pocket to boot?)
Can you be sure it'll happen in 2 years? What happen if won't get to that price for another 5 years? How much would you be paying in rent vs buying? I'm in the camp of government over stepping and cause major inflation. Also, long term average rates are around 8%. So, it's not out of the range of possibility either. What if it goes to 8+% instead by the time price actually get down to 420k? Right now, you can get down as low as 4.375% w/ some points.
"government over stepping and cause major inflation"
of course they will
but the chances of this inflation feeding into housing prices is very close to zero
what is likely is that we will have stag-flation or hyper-stag-flation - ie, the prices of the things we actually need will rise dramatically while the price of things that we don't need will drop dramatically
how badly does anyone need a $570K house in Mira Mesa, or CV, or anywhere else?
and you are right about rising interest rates - you are pushing the 'buy now' line with the argument of rates rising a point or two - here's a question for you - what is that $570K house worth at 14% interest rates?
my wife and I are both in that camp, we never considered MM before but we both work near there, and it looks much more attractive now. I currently live 6 miles from work, and I love it
I liked the simple rate example above. AN, you recently bought. I perceive a none-too-subtle shift to a more defensive posture in your posting. Most of us however have the same bunker mentality as before.
The odds of rates going up to 14% are about as high as prices staying where they are, nearly zero. Rates will stay low until our creditors say no mas, which appears is several years off. Meanwhile job losses will pick up steam and housing prices will continue to decline as lending standards perform the same task that higher interest rates did in previous cycles. Namely shrink the buyer pool.
I for one would love to see rates shoot up, but The govt is literally pissing into a black hole the money it is printing. This money will exhibit itself as soon as the asset deflation has unwound but I'm not counting on it to get me a home I can live comfortably in at a price I can afford.
In summary 570 seems too high to me for any home in MM. Then again, my stated housing preferences are very different from most here.
Josh
barnaby33, you're not seeing me defending my decision. I really don't need to defend my decision since it's my money I'm spending. All I'm trying to do is present the other point of view. I don't like the idea of saying price will go to $x w/out saying what rates will be at when $x occur. $x and y% in rate will determine affordability. Either one of those 2 variable will make a home unaffordable.
I would love to see rates shoot up too.
Hey, I'm just using your numbers. No doubt one can screw with the knobs until they get the answer they want. I was just responding to your suggestion that rates going to 7% would more than negate the savings in home price--clearly not the case.
But heck, I'm not trying to pick on you, I'm really responding to my mother-in-law, who said to me the other day, "sdcellar, I've been meaning to talk to you about this. You know, you were right about house prices, but you've got to buy this year. The interest rates are just too good."
As with all things, one must look at the complete picture (or as best you can with all things in the future).
Why is that? Do you have a lot of cash at this point, or is it because if things were working correctly, it should mean income increases as well?
sdcellar, I'm a saver, so rates going up = the interest I earn on my savings will go up. Also, house will crash some more, which mean when I'm ready to move up, my next house will probably be around the price I paid for my current house. I prefer low principle & high rates than the other way around. I was just tossing out the 6-7% out there, with no bases for those #. Who knows what they'll be in the future, when/if price do drop to the $420k level.
Good on you (being a saver), but haven't you moved much of your cash into your house? And (if it crashes more as you suggest), won't you be pretty well under water on your current house? How is that good for you?
I assume you mean a low principal balance. Who wouldn't like that? This is not a typical situation, however. At least not for most folks. Regardless, one simply cannot ignore opportunity cost, but I see it again and again.
And you're right, who knows? Have you considered the possibility that interest rates could go down from here? Personally, I'm not a big believer in it, but it could happen. That said, you seem to be a fan of fairly extreme scenarios.
sdcellar, I don't plan to sell this house. So, being under water doesn't concern me. My mortgage is also cheaper than what I'm paying for rent, so when I do move up, I'll just rent this place out. If economy gets really really tough, I can easily rent out 3 bedrooms and live there for free, since that would be enough to cover my mortgage. It's good for me because I get to buy a new place with a lower principal balance. I did move a lot of my cash into my house, but I can easily save that much again in 2-3 years. So it's no big deal.
Yes, I have considered rates going down some more. It's not likely, but if it does, I'll welcome that too. I just don't think we can stay down at this level for too long, considering longer term average mortgage rates are around 8%.
So, being under water doesn't concern me. My mortgage is also cheaper than what I'm paying for rent, so when I do move up, I'll just rent this place out.
You seem to forget one thing: if mortgage rate goes up & home prices go down & you lose equity, the lender will require you to have 30% equity in your current house before lending you money to buy another house. Or, you'll need to have the income to cover the payment on both houses.
You seem to forget one thing: if mortgage rate goes up & home prices go down & you lose equity, the lender will require you to have 30% equity in your current house before lending you money to buy another house. Or, you'll need to have the income to cover the payment on both houses.
I didn't forget it. The house I bought would cash flow positive today, so, I'm not too concern about it not cash flowing positive 10 years from now. 10 years from now, if rates does sky rocket and price in move up areas (the 600-800k range) drastically drop to 300-400k range, I can very well pay cash for it and refi later if need be.